Analyst's Corner
LCM Movie Projector: Misfires from ghosts and goats
- Bah humbug for A Christmas Carol [CAROL]. Weekend box office receipts were light, mainly because tallies for two high profile new releases, Disney’s PG-rated, 3-D A Christmas Carol, and Overture’s The Men Who Stare at Goats [MGOAT], starring George Clooney, fell short of our estimates. Box office for the top 12 movies over the Nov. 6 – 8 weekend, the 45th of the theater year, fell 13.4% y/y to $110.6 million, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com, $15.0 million below...
LCM Movie Projector: Michael didn’t beat it, Paranormal did
- Despite hype, Michael Jackson’s This Is It [JACKO] was only in-line. Various reports had concert promoter AEG estimating that Michael Jackson’s This Is It could pull in $250M in its first five days globally. Instead, the tally was only $101M, mainly outside the U.S. The domestic cume to date is only $32.5M, of which the $21.3M of receipts over the weekend were only $2.0M above our HSX-based estimate, which we had seen as very conservative and beatable. As we expected, Sony plans to...
LCM Movie Projector: Saw lost bite, Michael could beat it
- Weekend wrap: Paranormal popped, Saw lost bite. We had thought our weekend estimates were exceptionally conservative, but that proved not to be the case. Box office receipts for the top 12 movies over the Oct. 23 – 25 weekend, the 43rd of the theater year, fell 8.4% year-over-year to $109.9 million, $5.0 million above our estimate for a 12.6% decline, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com. Paramount’s low budget Paranormal Activity [PNACT] performed well, coming in...
LCM Movie Projector: Wild upside, more to come?
- Wild upside for the weekend box office. Box office receipts for the top 12 movies over the Oct. 16 – 18 weekend, the 42nd of the theater year, rose a whopping 53.2% year-over-year to $129.8 million, $38.0 million above our estimate for an 8.3% increase, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com. Where the Wild Things Are [WILD], from Spike Jonze and Warner Brothers, came in first with a $32.5 million opening weekend, $8.2 million above our estimate. Overture’s...
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