SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.

Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM 8964 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



Moana (MOAN1) 50000 239.91 (+0.53)          Michael $285M Blockbuster Warran (MJACK.BW) 25000 14.38 (+0.42)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 140.27 (-4.50)          Wicker (WCKER) 105000 5.05 (-0.05)          Moana (MOAN1) 150000 239.91 (+0.53)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 150000 77.52 (-3.78)          Viva La Madness (VLMAD) 60000 18.78 (-0.10)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 150000 77.52 (-3.78)          Viva La Madness (VLMAD) 150000 18.78 (-0.10)          Rich Flu (RCFLU) 50000 0.01 (-0.02)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 105000 4.41 (-0.06)          I Love Boosters (ILBOS) 150000 8.74 (-0.07)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 50000 202.37 (+0.63)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 35000 3.82 (-0.07)          Helldivers (HELDV) 20000 102.56 (-5.25)          The Chosen Season 6 (TCS61) 150000 11.78 (-0.04)          The Dog Stars (DOGST) 150000 75.60 (+2.08)          Sing 3 (SING3) 50000 49.90 (-0.24)          Sing 3 (SING3) 50000 49.90 (-0.24)          Hypno-Hustler (HYPHU) 1 4.67 (-0.01)          Once Upon a Time in Harlem (OUATH) 150000 0.74 (+0.10)          Oasis Live '25 (OASIS) 30000 15.40 (+0.05)          Fablehaven (FBLHV) 10000 13.81 (-0.02)          Joni Mitchell biopic (JONIM) 24000 12.39 (-0.18)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 41621 36.55 (+1.26)          Jehanne d'Arc (JDARC) 19000 29.67 (+0.07)          Remain (REMAN) 20000 67.73 (+0.22)          The Amazing Digital Circus: The (AMZDC) 150000 28.22 (+0.41)          Jehanne d'Arc (JDARC) 40000 29.67 (+0.07)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 60000 44.82 (-0.91)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 15000 44.82 (-0.91)          My Darling California (MDCAL) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 40000 8.61 (-0.27)          Planet of the Apes sequel (APES5) 15000 43.06 (-2.01)          Planet of the Apes sequel (APES5) 45000 43.06 (-2.01)          Toy Story 5 H$125 Put (TOYS5.PU) 25000 1.42 (+0.06)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 5000 317.93 (-3.80)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 55000 150.34 (-3.89)          Skeletons (SKLTN) 12000 21.91 (-0.12)          Helldivers (HELDV) 95000 102.56 (-5.25)          I Love Boosters (ILBOS) 150000 8.74 (-0.07)          Helldivers (HELDV) 55000 102.56 (-5.25)          Grandgear (GGEAR) 5000 57.57 (+1.00)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 150000 157.70 (+0.55)          Once Upon a Time in Harlem (OUATH) 150000 0.74 (+0.10)          Helldivers (HELDV) 150000 102.56 (-5.25)          Helldivers (HELDV) 150000 102.56 (-5.25)          Pressure (PRSUR) 150000 15.07 (-0.38)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 30000 228.80 (+1.14)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 149975 12.46 (+1.08)