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Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.



Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM        6288 views


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Desert Dancer (DSDNC) 100000 0.22 (+0.02)         The Great Wall (GRTWL) 50000 19.75 (+0.65)         Mumbai Musical aka Bollywood Su (MMBAI) 25000 29.78 (-0.08)         The Choice (CHOCE) 50000 22.57 (+1.15)         Manny (MANNY) 100000 0.95 (0.00)         Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 (ALVN4) 25000 43.03 (-1.05)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 25000 40.49 (+0.49)         Shazam! (SHAZM) 1 64.12 (-0.06)         Desert Dancer (DSDNC) 100000 0.22 (+0.02)         The Hateful Eight (HATE8) 1 66.21 (-0.13)         Untitled Cold War Thriller (CLDWR) 1 67.26 (+0.14)         Madagascar 4 (MADG4) 1 67.90 (-0.19)         Manny (MANNY) 100000 0.95 (0.00)         23 Jump Street (21JS3) 1 68.44 (-0.13)         Shazam! (SHAZM) 100000 64.12 (-0.06)         Fallen (FALLN) 100000 6.35 (+1.74)         The Hateful Eight (HATE8) 100000 66.21 (-0.13)         The Interview (NTRVW) 19 14.65 (+0.99)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 25000 40.49 (+0.49)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 50000 4.75 (+1.53)         23 Jump Street (21JS3) 100000 68.44 (-0.13)         Fallen (FALLN) 64999 6.35 (+1.74)         Untitled Cold War Thriller (CLDWR) 100000 67.26 (+0.14)         Madagascar 4 (MADG4) 100000 67.90 (-0.19)         Dan Stevens (DSTEV) 4605 10.75 (+0.06)         Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 (ALVN4) 25000 43.03 (-1.05)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 50000 40.49 (+0.49)         Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (MALC2) 25000 46.56 (-0.23)         N5: Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher (N5DBMI) 5000 5.36 (-0.03)         The Lazarus Effect (LAZAR) 25000 18.13 (-0.06)         N5: Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher (N5DBMI) 20000 5.36 (-0.03)         The Divergent Series: Insurgent (DVRG2) 10000 137.65 (-0.02)         The Wedding Ringer (WEDRN) 35000 44.08 (-0.11)         Bryan Cranston (BCRAN) 200 104.40 (+0.28)         The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials (MAZE2) 10000 40.33 (-0.14)         Beetlejuice 2 (BEET2) 99999 19.99 (+0.03)         N5: Naomi Watts - St. Vincent - (N5SNWA) 800 5.57 (0.00)         Sanaa Lathan (SLATH) 550 34.47 (-0.08)         Moana (MOANA) 1 73.33 (-0.13)         Robert Rodriguez (RRODR) 900 14.56 (-0.04)         Wolverine 3 (WOLV3) 1 79.25 (-0.35)         Lupita Nyong'o (LNYON) 500 63.20 (+0.13)         Josh Holloway (JHOLL) 440 48.96 (-0.13)         The Divergent Series: Allegiant (DVRG4) 1 84.12 (-0.10)         Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculi (PRGRN) 25000 33.93 (+0.07)         Charlize Theron (CTHER) 800 71.19 (0.00)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 100000 40.49 (+0.49)         Free Fire (FREFR) 1 14.98 (+0.54)         Anthony Hopkins (AHOPK) 350 59.70 (-0.13)         Free Fire (FREFR) 100000 14.98 (+0.54)