SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Will moviegoers commit to The Five-Year Engagement?

Four new films will close out the month of April before the summer blockbuster season begins next weekend. The romantic comedy The Five-Year Engagement [5YENG] appears to have the best shot of topping the weekend box office. Jason Segel [JSEGE] and Emily Blunt [EBLUN] star as a couple taking a long, circuitous route to their wedding. Segel’s previous collaboration with director Nicholas Stoller [NSTOL], Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened with $17.7 million in 2008 and established both as players in comedy. Universal has hyped the R-rated film’s connection to Bridesmaids, but the trailers and reviews have not been as good as the 2011 smash. Nevertheless, there are materials appealing to both genders, which should attract the dating crowd. Debuting in 2936 theaters, The Five-Year Engagement should walk away with $20 million.

Last weekend’s top earner Think Like a Man [TLKAM] broke out across all demographics. With good word of mouth, Think Like a Man should hold better than 50% at arounc $18 million.

Pirates! Band of Misfits [PIRTS] is Aardman Studios’ first stop-motion animated film since 2005’s Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, which opened with $16.0 million. Their last effort, the CG-animated Arthur Christmas opened to just $12.1 million last November. British humor just doesn’t translate broadly in the States. The PG-rated family film does have in its favor of being the only animated offering since The Lorax. Pirates! could loot $14.5 million from 3358 locations.

With its female target audience, the romance The Lucky One [LUCON] may decline 45% to $12 million.

John Cusack [JOHNC] plays Edgar Allan Poe in the period thriller The Raven [TRAVN]. The Relativity release markets itself as a R-rated version of Sherlock Holmes with the horror elements of Saw.  Unfortunately, the film lacks buzz and holds little audience appeal outside older men. Landing in 2203 theaters, The Raven could quoth a figure of $10 million.

Safe [SAFE] is the latest R-rated action vehicle starring Jason Statham [JSTAT]. Lionsgate’s marketing has done little to make the film stand out.  With only hardcore fans likely to turn out, Safe is unlikely to match the opening of Statham’s last two efforts, Killer Elite’s $9.3 million or The Mechanic’s $11.3 million. Playing in 2266 theaters, Safe may unlock just $7.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): 5YENG, JSEGE, EBLUN, NSTOL, TLKAM, PIRTS, LUCON, JOHNC, TRAVN, SAFE, JSTAT

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 26, 2012 @ 03:54 PM 10201 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



Planet of the Apes sequel (APES5) 150000 43.06 (-2.01)          Planet of the Apes sequel (APES5) 150000 43.06 (-2.01)          Godzilla Minus Zero (GODM2) 60000 57.66 (+0.38)          Moana (MOAN1) 50000 241.67 (+2.29)          Romy & Michelle 2 (ROMY2) 1000 6.22 (-6.41)          Romy & Michelle 2 (ROMY2) 1000 6.22 (-6.41)          Planes, Trains and Automobiles (PTAUT) 100 6.56 (0.00)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 150000 77.50 (-3.80)          George Michael: The Faith Tour (GMTFT) 1000 6.40 (+0.01)          Ecto aka Ghostbusters animated (GBUST) 1000 4.59 (0.00)          A Visit to Grandpa’s (AVTGP) 78000 3.52 (+0.18)          Voltron (VOLTN) 477 20.69 (-0.06)          Callum Turner (CTURN) 10000 35.17 (+0.10)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 6.64 (+1.64)          Tyrese Gibson (TYGIB) 25000 89.67 (+0.25)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 20000 6.89 (-0.01)          Rosa Salazar (RSALA) 25000 56.10 (+0.16)          Callum Turner (CTURN) 10000 35.17 (+0.10)          Omaha (OMAHA) 150000 0.10 (-0.02)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 3 140.27 (-4.50)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 3 140.27 (-4.50)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 3 79.68 (+0.34)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 3 79.68 (+0.34)          Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 2 13.11 (+0.34)          Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 2 13.11 (+0.34)          The Get Out aka Bear Country (BEARC) 3 6.08 (+0.37)          The Get Out aka Bear Country (BEARC) 3 6.08 (+0.37)          Flesh of the Gods (FLOTG) 2 9.22 (+0.62)          Flesh of the Gods (FLOTG) 2 9.22 (+0.62)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 3 180.78 (+0.94)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 3 180.78 (+0.94)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 2 12.48 (+1.10)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 2 12.48 (+1.10)          Ice Age: Boiling Point (ICEA6) 3 85.97 (+1.26)          Ice Age: Boiling Point (ICEA6) 3 85.97 (+1.26)          Primetime (PRMTM) 2 23.40 (+1.62)          Primetime (PRMTM) 2 23.40 (+1.62)          Silent Friend (SLNTF) 150000 0.33 (+0.06)          Fatherland (FTHRL) 150000 4.77 (-0.08)          Fatherland (FTHRL) 3 4.77 (-0.08)          The Beast (TBEAS) 150000 6.74 (+0.08)          A Minecraft Movie Squared (MINE2) 5000 313.57 (+0.18)          Jack Reynor (JREYN) 25000 16.58 (-0.30)          Josh Hutcherson (JHUTC) 25000 80.55 (+1.25)          Once Upon a Time in Harlem (OUATH) 3 0.74 (+0.10)          Once Upon a Time in Harlem (OUATH) 150000 0.74 (+0.10)          Josh Hutcherson (JHUTC) 25000 80.55 (+1.25)          Havana Rose Liu (HRLIU) 25000 5.69 (-0.05)          Helldivers (HELDV) 150000 102.54 (-5.27)          Helldivers (HELDV) 150000 102.54 (-5.27)