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Playing & Trading Strategy

Wish it was all logic based, but we're talking consumer behaviour, and statistical analysis...

Posted by: elchan (a.k.a elchan2012) on Jun 06, 18:49 in response to alfpaulytd2012's post lot of jumps in logic

Assumption 1:  Movie goers are going to want to see the new releases.  That's just consumer behaviour.  Those who see neither MADG3 or PROME, are not part of the analysis for deciding which of the two movies to choose.  Statistics will be able to build a model of what percentage of all movie views for the weekend will want to see the new releases.

Assumption 2:  There's only so much money in peoples pockets for movie viewing in a any given week end.  Again statistical analysis can help to build a model to predict this. (i.e. seasonality, type of movie being newly released, holdover strength ...)

Assumption 3:  In fact it does start out in equilibrium, because HSX sets the IPO price.  The rest is market driven.

Of course, I'm just making assumptions, with no analysis yet. Models always start with assumptions, and later refined.

With so many billionaires, and near billionaires in this game, do little investors like myself really affect the game? {nm} elchan Jun 06, 13:55

Yes, because billionaires cannot buy more shares of a stock than you can. {nm} dioneta Jun 06, 14:02

True, but if you have enough money, you can buy more of different stock, and even play both side, short and long, on two related movies. {nm} elchan Jun 06, 15:19

Yes.. But they cannot affect individual stock movement more than you.. and you play "short" OR "long" not simultaneously {nm} dioneta Jun 06, 16:47

You can play short AND long. For instance I feel that MADG3 is too low, so play long and if I feel that MADG3 will take a bite elchan Jun 06, 17:44

? Paul2k Jun 06, 17:56

Yes, sometimes, I scare myself. Here's the logic: elchan Jun 06, 18:09

But they aren't dependent on each other like that. You're returning to your zero-sum supposition, which doesn't hold here. Paul2k Jun 06, 18:23

There's definitely a correlation in gross for a weekend between the grosses of movies opening the same weekend. elchan Jun 06, 18:34

Oh there is? Good luck finding that. I'm sure the movie studios and tracking firms and box office predictors would love to see your findings Paul2k Jun 06, 19:53

This is true. And I would take that approach in real life, since I want to be efficient and get my job done quickly. elchan Jun 07, 06:59

lot of jumps in logic alfpaulytd2012 Jun 06, 18:26

Wish it was all logic based, but we're talking consumer behaviour, and statistical analysis... elchan Jun 06, 18:49

see, that's where you always sound like such a noob alfpaulytd2012 Jun 06, 19:00

But I am a noob, not trying to hide anything. What about the post-AVNGR slump? elchan Jun 06, 19:18

*banging head on desk* {nm} Paul2k Jun 06, 19:55

Please, no need to hurt yourself over me. ;-) {nm} elchan Jun 06, 20:10

I'd argue the point but its kind of pointless alfpaulytd2012 Jun 06, 23:56

Come one guys, why so negative. This is a discussion board, and we are discussing things. I don't to claim that I know anything. elchan Jun 07, 06:45

elchan, there have been FAQs and tutorials put out by players on pretty much all aspects of HSX. There used to be a half dozen websites Paul2k Jun 07, 07:05

Thought that was what I was doing, asking question, through out some ideas, getting responses. elchan Jun 07, 07:58

I think initially, you came on a little strong and full of declarations, making it seem like you thought you knew everything, even if that Paul2k Jun 07, 09:00

it only happens when someone doesn't honestly have a question alfpaulytd2012 Jun 07, 09:55

Not to belabor a point, but stock performances are not linked in a zero sum fashion... even if you think they are. dioneta Jun 07, 10:21

I promise you that unless they inherited a port, every billionaire started off with a $2M just like you did. Tanker Jun 06, 14:04

Every investor is sacred, every investor is great islander Jun 06, 14:13

I know I am, but my who portfolio is probably what you would commission on a trade. ;-) {nm} elchan Jun 06, 15:20

Must be late on my payments, my ISP is skipping words and letters. {nm} elchan Jun 06, 15:34

That was a beautiful sentence. :) {nm} Paul2k Jun 06, 17:36

Duh, henglish, I lern good time. {nm} elchan Jun 06, 18:13

Easy for you to say. {nm} Tanker Jun 06, 17:40

Well, this is eye opening. Anyways, as I said I like playing this game, and enjoy coming up with my theories on how I think things can work elchan Jun 07, 11:59

if it's true that a trader has to keep discovering/shifting strategies as port size grows, then I don't think you have to worry about Dave3626 Jun 07, 15:59





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