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But I am a noob, not trying to hide anything. What about the post-AVNGR slump?

Posted by: elchan (a.k.a elchan2012) on Jun 06, 19:18 in response to alfpaulytd2012's post see, that's where you always sound like such a noob

Assumption 1:  There's no chirping, the post-AVNGR slump is a reality.  It was somewhat broken by SWHTM.  Also, partial explanation of Assumption 2, for the slump is that peoples pockets were lighter from seeing AVNGR.

Assumption 2:  Zero sum, or near to it, does not mean play to break even.  Your gains are based on the spread between player sentiment on a Movie stock based on the actual portion of the zero sum that a movie grosses.  So let's say the total pot is $100M, and MADG3 gets $60M with PROME making $40M, at the end.  But people think that PROME will do better than MADG3, and MADG3 trades at $45, and PROME trades at $55.  If I long MADG3 and short PROME, I will make money, even though at the end the total gross is still $100M.  I made money on the spread.

Assumption 3:  We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.  The IPO prices are based on HSX models, so in effect they are starting on a level playing field regardless of when each IPOs.  Market analysis are used to predict weekend grosses based on models based on seasonality all the time.  You can estimate gross by seasonality, for instance.  A long weekend will gross higher than a regular weekend.  Summer is higher than dead of winter, etc.

I'm not saying I know it all.  Just building models in my mind to be able to apply some kind of method to the madness. ;-)

With so many billionaires, and near billionaires in this game, do little investors like myself really affect the game? {nm}   elchan on Jun 06, 13:55

Yes, because billionaires cannot buy more shares of a stock than you can. {nm}   dioneta on Jun 06, 14:02

True, but if you have enough money, you can buy more of different stock, and even play both side, short and long, on two related movies. {nm}   elchan on Jun 06, 15:19

Yes.. But they cannot affect individual stock movement more than you.. and you play "short" OR "long" not simultaneously {nm}   dioneta on Jun 06, 16:47

You can play short AND long. For instance I feel that MADG3 is too low, so play long and if I feel that MADG3 will take a bite   elchan on Jun 06, 17:44

?   Paul2k on Jun 06, 17:56

Yes, sometimes, I scare myself. Here's the logic:   elchan on Jun 06, 18:09

But they aren't dependent on each other like that. You're returning to your zero-sum supposition, which doesn't hold here.   Paul2k on Jun 06, 18:23

There's definitely a correlation in gross for a weekend between the grosses of movies opening the same weekend.   elchan on Jun 06, 18:34

Oh there is? Good luck finding that. I'm sure the movie studios and tracking firms and box office predictors would love to see your findings   Paul2k on Jun 06, 19:53

This is true. And I would take that approach in real life, since I want to be efficient and get my job done quickly.   elchan on Jun 07, 06:59

lot of jumps in logic   alfpaulytd2012 on Jun 06, 18:26

Wish it was all logic based, but we're talking consumer behaviour, and statistical analysis...   elchan on Jun 06, 18:49

see, that's where you always sound like such a noob   alfpaulytd2012 on Jun 06, 19:00

But I am a noob, not trying to hide anything. What about the post-AVNGR slump?   elchan on Jun 06, 19:18

*banging head on desk* {nm}   Paul2k on Jun 06, 19:55

Please, no need to hurt yourself over me. ;-) {nm}   elchan on Jun 06, 20:10

I'd argue the point but its kind of pointless   alfpaulytd2012 on Jun 06, 23:56

Come one guys, why so negative. This is a discussion board, and we are discussing things. I don't to claim that I know anything.   elchan on Jun 07, 06:45

elchan, there have been FAQs and tutorials put out by players on pretty much all aspects of HSX. There used to be a half dozen websites   Paul2k on Jun 07, 07:05

Thought that was what I was doing, asking question, through out some ideas, getting responses.   elchan on Jun 07, 07:58

I think initially, you came on a little strong and full of declarations, making it seem like you thought you knew everything, even if that   Paul2k on Jun 07, 09:00

it only happens when someone doesn't honestly have a question   alfpaulytd2012 on Jun 07, 09:55

Not to belabor a point, but stock performances are not linked in a zero sum fashion... even if you think they are.   dioneta on Jun 07, 10:21

I promise you that unless they inherited a port, every billionaire started off with a $2M just like you did.   Tanker on Jun 06, 14:04

Every investor is sacred, every investor is great   islander on Jun 06, 14:13

I know I am, but my who portfolio is probably what you would commission on a trade. ;-) {nm}   elchan on Jun 06, 15:20

Must be late on my payments, my ISP is skipping words and letters. {nm}   elchan on Jun 06, 15:34

That was a beautiful sentence. :) {nm}   Paul2k on Jun 06, 17:36

Duh, henglish, I lern good time. {nm}   elchan on Jun 06, 18:13

Easy for you to say. {nm}   Tanker on Jun 06, 17:40

Well, this is eye opening. Anyways, as I said I like playing this game, and enjoy coming up with my theories on how I think things can work   elchan on Jun 07, 11:59

if it's true that a trader has to keep discovering/shifting strategies as port size grows, then I don't think you have to worry about    Dave3626 on Jun 07, 15:59

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