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One I'd like to add - playing the players is also a factor.

Posted by: RogerMore on Jul 06, 08:40 in response to elchan's post I guess my question should have been, "If I owned...

Over summer (and also over the Christmas holidays), a lot of traders have a lot of cash, which they park in long-term investments.

They'll choose the highest profile investments for this - franchises like Spider-Man movies, star vehicles like anything Will Smith is in, and sequels to surprise hits from this summer.

So movies like SPID5 will get a sharper uptick than, say, next year's TED. A year ago, no one thought TED would be a $150M movie.

So it's easy to identify which long-term movies will get a bigger uptick in price over the short-term, and more traders will invest in those movies, forcing the price up further.

The whole thing is obviously unsustainable, and sometime in September you'll see a lot of these stocks fall drastically in price. For an active trader, this is worth playing. For a casual player... well, they tend to switch off during thse times.

Please explain the strategy behind why someone would buy and hold SPID5 for over a year? elchan Jul 06, 07:21

there are way more part time players than there are regulars. buy and hold is an easy strategy for someone who either doesnt know better or islander Jul 06, 07:24

I often buy and hold the next 2 years tent-poles. Scorpion Jul 06, 07:36

When your port is huge, and you have cash laying around, why not buy as many stocks (short OR long) as you can..put the $ to work! {nm} Flash Jul 06, 07:39

But the dROI is so small to hold it for another year. Any actively managed fund would get at least 1% dROI. elchan Jul 06, 07:50

while 1% sure is desirable, you face a different problem when port grows too big. Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:56

I need to keep that in mind when I become a billionaire. ;-0 {nm} elchan Jul 06, 08:00

You don't need to be a billionaire. @ about half a billion you start running out of stuff to do with your excess cash. Scorpion Jul 06, 10:54

Yeah, I've made a billion so far this year. My average daily change is 0.06% {nm} RogerMore Jul 06, 08:27

my take: Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:40

But, mid 300s seems impossible at current pace, to me. I guess people are still holding on, until they see where SPID4 will actually land. elchan Jul 06, 07:45

it's a unique situation w/ SPID4, given that 3 days won't get a multiplier. SPID3 did 151mill that wknd in 2007.... Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:48