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Playing & Trading Strategy

Is this the way you compare mid-week openers with Friday openers?

Posted by: MattW (a.k.a del_RGV_MattW) on Dec 14, 23:58

To look at the first 7 days:

Toy Story 3 versus Despicable Me 2: both animated, close release dates, not that many years between them, and close on the 7 day totals. TS3 did 110.3m Fri-Sun while DM2 was at 83.5m, 25% lower (likely boosted somewhat by having a holiday close to the weekend). 

Another might be Transformers 2 compared to TDKR and Deathly Hallows 2. All summer openings, first 7 days are close, but the Friday openers were in the 160-170 range while TF was at 109 for it's Fri-Sun, 32-35% down. 

So obviously I'm mentioning this in reference to guessing at the hobbit 3's opening, which leads me here:

Given those percentages, a wednesday opening at Smaug's level would be around 50 I think for Fri-Sun, and at AUJ's level it would be up to low 60's at most, around Two Towers level.  Not that it can't be bigger, but if you're expecting it to open similarly to the last two you probably aren't thinking 70m for Fri-Sun, right?

There's probably a more sophisticated way to go about it but that's all I got for now.





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Sam Rockwell (SROCK) 284 48.82 (0.00)          Perfect (PFECT) 25000 2.29 (0.00)          The Super Mario Bros. Movie 2 (MARI2) 753 327.78 (-0.08)          Challengers H$10 Call (CHALN.CA) 25000 3.20 (-0.10)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 300 68.09 (+0.64)          Challengers - Opening Weekend (CHALN.OW) 100000 11.96 (-0.18)          Challengers - Opening Weekend (CHALN.OW) 99999 11.96 (-0.18)          Monkey Man (MNKYM) 5000 23.33 (0.00)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 500 4.56 (+1.28)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $100 (GHST5.BW) 25000 8.00 (+0.03)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 1000 4.56 (+1.28)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 25000 16.75 (+1.75)          Rumours (RUMRS) 250 6.89 (-0.06)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 15000 17.88 (+0.71)          Ray Gunn (RAYGN) 1 17.25 (0.00)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 1954 88.68 (+1.85)          Rumours (RUMRS) 1500 6.89 (-0.06)          Elizabeth Olsen (EOLSE) 1000 177.52 (-0.02)          Rumours (RUMRS) 78667 6.89 (-0.06)          Challengers - Opening Weekend (CHALN.OW) 1 11.96 (-0.18)          Ray Gunn (RAYGN) 1 17.25 (0.00)          Challengers H$10 Call (CHALN.CA) 1 3.20 (-0.10)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 20288 88.68 (+1.85)          Monopoly (MONOP) 1000 15.51 (+0.08)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 100000 151.43 (+0.11)          Abigail (ABGAL) 17155 53.72 (-0.85)          Science-Fiction Fund (SCIFI) 20000 91.74 (-0.09)          Abigail (ABGAL) 2 53.72 (-0.85)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 4989 88.68 (+1.85)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 50000 19.11 (+0.07)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 150000 134.96 (+0.31)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 50000 19.11 (+0.07)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 50000 0.14 (0.00)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 50000 19.11 (+0.07)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 16.75 (+1.75)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 50000 19.11 (+0.07)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 50000 19.11 (+0.07)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 50000 19.11 (+0.07)          Abigail - Opening Weekend (ABGAL.OW) 99917 19.42 (-0.01)          Abigail H$25 Call (ABGAL.CA) 25000 0.38 (-0.02)          Abigail H$25 Put (ABGAL.PU) 25000 5.07 (+0.04)          Abigail - Opening Weekend (ABGAL.OW) 99922 19.42 (-0.01)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 15000 4.56 (+1.28)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 44534 4.56 (+1.28)          It Ends with Us (ITEND) 150000 30.74 (+0.04)          Save the Green Planet (STGPL) 50000 18.26 (+0.08)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 500 3.64 (+0.10)          Save the Green Planet (STGPL) 50000 18.26 (+0.08)          Save the Green Planet (STGPL) 50000 18.26 (+0.08)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 10000 19.68 (-0.01)