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Playing & Trading Strategy

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number

Posted by: JDolphin on Apr 10, 22:35 in response to Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin's post Gotcha - so my question is this...

is based on all the things you and RogerMore mentioned and with this many movies in the franchise you can get a good pattern. Also how frontloaded it is - the more, the bigger the drop.

I picked 360 for Fast7 which was probably too high (under the influence of that massive opening) and then do a quick glance each day to see if the stock price falls below that.  If not I don't worry about it.  Based on the projected numbers for this weekend and the 1st weeks daily numbers I'm revising my number down to 350 (based on wknd proj, 60% wknd hold and 55% wk day hold), still too high I'm sure, but until the stock drops below that I'm not going to pay worry too much. When we've got more box office you can really judge it against the previous movies and come up with a fairly accurate delist number.

And thanks for the compliment.  :)

FAST7 predictions... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 17:05

I'm going with $320. Let's see if this pastes properly... Roger More Apr 10, 17:24

I'll try once more... Roger More Apr 10, 17:25

(dammit!) {nm} Roger More Apr 10, 17:27

Gotcha - so my question is this... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 18:21

There are a bunch of factors, but I think they all cancel each other out RogerMore Apr 10, 19:37

Thanks for your response, Roger More! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 20:24

Oh, I just remembered that FAST7's OW was underestimated, so the adjust was lower than it should have been RogerMore Apr 11, 09:10

So like... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

I'll say 328 {nm} RogerMore Apr 11, 14:00

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number JDolphin Apr 10, 22:35

Thanks for the great input! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

Dang, you were dead on {nm} MattW Feb 05, 19:42

331 {nm} Universal 100 Fund Apr 11, 07:23

Direct and to the point :) Thanks!! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:59

You should show your math. {nm} Antibody Apr 13, 14:04

No, no, don't do that. You get called names by Homer Simpson! You don't want that :P {nm} Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Apr 13, 19:28

The number zed reminds me of a doh-nut! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:43

See comparison with HGAME Antibody Apr 13, 13:48

This is a good piece of data, here. Interesting. Thanks Anti. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:42

I mean - it's uncanny how close these numbers are {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:44





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In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 4.36 (+1.08)          Rabbit Trap (RBTRP) 30000 2.45 (-0.02)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 19.41 (+0.46)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 10 19.41 (+0.46)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 95000 4.46 (+0.08)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 150000 49.16 (-0.77)          Antarctica (ANTRC) 150000 15.61 (-0.14)          Antarctica (ANTRC) 150000 15.61 (-0.14)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 2525 94.32 (+1.00)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 10 19.41 (+0.46)          Playdate (PLYDT) 5 16.60 (+1.60)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 1000 77.88 (-0.32)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.60 (+1.60)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 149950 19.53 (-1.22)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 10000 67.01 (+0.03)          Abigail (ABGAL) 14000 49.78 (-4.79)          Hit Man (HTMAN) 150000 1.95 (-0.14)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.53 (-1.22)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.60 (+1.60)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.53 (-1.22)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 500 24.54 (-0.15)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 19.22 (-1.90)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 19.22 (-1.90)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.60 (+1.60)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 5 28.56 (-1.73)          Playdate (PLYDT) 500 16.60 (+1.60)          Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 25000 70.88 (+0.25)          Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 25000 70.88 (+0.25)          Rabbit Trap (RBTRP) 30000 2.45 (-0.02)          Roland Emmerich (REMME) 20000 60.70 (-0.45)          Roland Emmerich (REMME) 25000 60.70 (-0.45)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 25000 4.16 (+0.62)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 1 4.16 (+0.62)          The Pinkerton (PNKRT) 30000 14.00 (-0.09)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 150000 131.95 (-1.88)          Spy x Family Code: White (SPYFM) 150000 20.26 (-0.76)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 1 51.13 (-0.75)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 100000 51.13 (-0.75)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.60 (+1.60)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 24999 4.16 (+0.62)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 99999 51.13 (-0.75)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 67 67.01 (+0.03)          Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 150000 23.79 (-0.08)          Hit Man (HTMAN) 150000 1.95 (-0.14)          Spellbound (SPLBN) 150000 1.75 (-0.03)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 1 24.54 (-0.15)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 15000 170.17 (+1.30)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 4.36 (+1.08)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 49.78 (-4.79)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 150000 24.54 (-0.15)