ANNOUNCEMENT: Sign-In with Facebook is currently unavailable. Please use your HSX username to login. Sorry about the inconvenience.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 18:58 in response to secretstalker's post [BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4]...

Bookmark it, or whatever. This is based on absolutely nothing but my personal expectations/guesses. If I get all three right, it'll strengthen my belief in my own internal radar, if nothing else..

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
The Best of Me (BESME) 99999 25.84 (-1.87)         In the Heart of the Sea (HRTSE) 100000 40.28 (+0.07)         Into the Woods (INTWD) 100000 102.69 (-0.93)         The Good Dinosaur (DINOS) 30909 95.04 (+4.63)         Mad Max: Fury Road (MMAX4) 5000 100.01 (+0.09)         John Wick H$15 Call (JWICK.CA) 20000 1.96 (-0.09)         Cobalt Neural 9 (CN9) 5147 0.01 (0.00)         John Wick - Opening Weekend (JWICK.OW) 100000 13.82 (+0.10)         The Big Short (BIGSH) 50000 23.33 (-2.15)         The Flash (FLASH) 100000 56.29 (+0.77)         The Flash (FLASH) 98888 56.29 (+0.77)         John Wick (JWICK) 100000 36.93 (-0.64)         The Big Short (BIGSH) 50000 23.33 (-2.15)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 100000 109.71 (+1.61)         Cameron Bright (CBRIG) 5490 146.07 (+0.78)         Aquaman (AQUMN) 100000 72.40 (-0.27)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 100000 109.71 (+1.61)         Aquaman (AQUMN) 98888 72.40 (-0.27)         Cobalt Neural 9 (CN9) 10111 0.01 (0.00)         The Good Dinosaur (DINOS) 2000 95.04 (+4.63)         CBS: Stalker (STALKR) 20000 11.66 (-0.13)         The Good Dinosaur (DINOS) 100000 95.04 (+4.63)         The Gambler (GMBLR) 100000 31.42 (-0.10)         The Book of Life (BOLIF) 4000 44.33 (-0.73)         The Gambler (GMBLR) 100000 31.42 (-0.10)         X-Men: Apocalypse (XMEN6) 1460 188.08 (+0.62)         Cowboy Bebop (CWBOP) 1233 0.11 (-0.02)         Ouija (OUIJA) 800 49.53 (+0.20)         The Good Dinosaur (DINOS) 100000 95.04 (+4.63)         I Saw the Light (ISTLT) 100000 14.74 (-0.07)         I Saw the Light (ISTLT) 100000 14.74 (-0.07)         The Chronicles of Narnia: The Si (NARN4) 50000 28.26 (+2.49)         The Chronicles of Narnia: The Si (NARN4) 6000 28.26 (+2.49)         Fury (FURY) 5000 63.42 (-2.40)         Uncharted (UNCHT) 100000 35.65 (-0.05)         Based on a True Story Fund (TRUE) 10000 21.74 (+0.05)         Halloween 3 (HALW3) 100000 4.41 (-1.73)         The Chronicles of Narnia: The Si (NARN4) 50000 28.26 (+2.49)         Uncharted (UNCHT) 100000 35.65 (-0.05)         The Chronicles of Narnia: The Si (NARN4) 50000 28.26 (+2.49)         Suicide Squad (SUICD) 100000 109.71 (+1.61)         Venom (VENM1) 100000 28.49 (-0.10)         Yucatan (YUCAT) 11000 23.01 (+4.39)         The Chronicles of Narnia: The Si (NARN4) 50000 28.26 (+2.49)         Venom (VENM1) 100000 28.49 (-0.10)         Cobalt Neural 9 (CN9) 12342 0.01 (0.00)         The Good Dinosaur (DINOS) 6000 95.04 (+4.63)         Underdogs (UNDRD) 100000 16.15 (-0.07)         Underdogs (UNDRD) 100000 16.15 (-0.07)         Fast & Furious 7 (FAST7) 10 229.08 (0.00)