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Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 18:58 in response to secretstalker's post [BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4]...

Bookmark it, or whatever. This is based on absolutely nothing but my personal expectations/guesses. If I get all three right, it'll strengthen my belief in my own internal radar, if nothing else..

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





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Goosebumps (GBUMP) 50000 31.37 (-1.66)         Deepwater Horizon (DPWTH) 1 20.42 (-2.66)         Mississippi Grind (MSGRN) 99999 4.58 (+0.04)         Deepwater Horizon (DPWTH) 50000 20.42 (-2.66)         Digging for Fire (DIGFR) 99999 1.90 (-0.48)         FOX: The Last Man on Earth (LMANOE) 20000 6.13 (+0.13)         The Girl Who Played With Fire (TGRL2) 1 16.40 (+1.68)         Blonde (BONDE) 100000 1.44 (+0.05)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 29091 8.74 (-0.05)         Project Almanac (ALMNC) 50000 32.73 (-1.56)         Ted 2 (TED2) 99999 133.34 (-0.46)         American Sniper $300M Blockbuste (AMSNP.BW) 20000 6.59 (+0.23)         The Lazarus Effect (LAZAR) 25000 27.11 (+0.02)         The Girl Who Played With Fire (TGRL2) 100000 16.40 (+1.68)         High-Rise (HIRIS) 100000 6.55 (-0.14)         Two Men in Town (2MTWN) 100000 1.69 (+0.21)         Chappie (CHAPI) 777 71.34 (-0.16)         Blonde (BONDE) 100000 1.44 (+0.05)         A La Mala (ALMAL) 100000 0.96 (-0.08)         Project Almanac (ALMNC) 80000 32.73 (-1.56)         Shohreh Aghdashloo (SAGHD) 20000 27.43 (-0.08)         Madame Bovary (BOVRY) 100000 2.81 (+0.24)         Dia de los Muertos aka Untitled (DDLM) 99999 19.65 (-0.02)         Project Almanac (ALMNC) 191 32.73 (-1.56)         Eddie the Eagle (EDEGL) 1 15.12 (+0.71)         Jupiter Ascending (JUPTR) 100000 52.42 (+0.10)         Eddie the Eagle (EDEGL) 100000 15.12 (+0.71)         The Magnificent Seven (MAGN7) 25000 46.44 (+1.11)         FOX: The Last Man on Earth (LMANOE) 20000 6.13 (+0.13)         The SpongeBob Movie 2: Sponge Ou (SPBO2.OW) 100000 25.89 (+0.10)         The Girl Who Played With Fire (TGRL2) 25000 16.40 (+1.68)         Project Almanac (ALMNC) 50000 32.73 (-1.56)         The SpongeBob Movie 2: Sponge Ou (SPBO2.CA) 20000 2.77 (0.00)         Blonde (BONDE) 100000 1.44 (+0.05)         The Wedding Ringer (WEDRN) 50000 49.61 (+0.29)         Two Men in Town (2MTWN) 100000 1.69 (+0.21)         American Sniper $300M Blockbuste (AMSNP.BW) 20000 6.59 (+0.23)         Untitled Joel Edgerton Thriller (WERDO) 25000 23.99 (+2.00)         American Sniper $300M Blockbuste (AMSNP.BW) 20000 6.59 (+0.23)         ABC: Secrets and Lies (SECLIE) 20000 6.30 (+0.30)         CBS: Battle Creek (BATCRK) 20000 8.14 (+0.14)         ABC: Secrets and Lies (SECLIE) 20000 6.30 (+0.30)         Do You Believe? (DYBLV) 100000 15.23 (0.00)         Project Almanac (ALMNC) 100000 32.73 (-1.56)         Chronicle 2 (CHRN2) 100000 5.55 (-0.55)         Project Almanac (ALMNC) 10 32.73 (-1.56)         The Good Dinosaur (DINOS) 100000 95.59 (+0.39)         The Peanuts Movie (PENUT) 100000 66.71 (+0.13)         Lowriders (LOWRD) 100000 33.75 (-0.25)         Consent to Kill (CTKIL) 100000 0.07 (-0.04)