ANNOUNCEMENT: Trade Blockbuster Warrants of Hollywood's biggest moneymakers.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 18:58 in response to secretstalker's post [BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4]...

Bookmark it, or whatever. This is based on absolutely nothing but my personal expectations/guesses. If I get all three right, it'll strengthen my belief in my own internal radar, if nothing else..

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
XXX: The Return of Xander Cage (XXX3) 100000 7.86 (+0.28)         Cooties (COOTI) 100000 3.62 (+0.89)         Marion Cotillard (MCOTI) 8500 5.34 (+0.01)         Chris Tucker (CTUCK) 20000 112.05 (-0.57)         My All American (MALAM) 100000 10.32 (-1.15)         Stellan Skarsgard (SSKAR) 20000 58.69 (0.00)         Tink (TINK) 100000 9.10 (-2.40)         Jonny Quest (JQUES) 5000 0.06 (0.00)         Alien 5 (ALIE5) 22515 37.29 (+3.27)         Kevin Hart: What Now? (KHWN) 228 22.82 (-0.94)         Set Fire to the Stars (SFTTS) 100000 1.24 (+0.01)         Alex Proyas (APROY) 20000 35.69 (-0.08)         The Croods 2 (CROD2) 8000 67.32 (-1.03)         Comancheria (CMNCH) 5000 18.82 (+0.82)         Ant-Man (ANTMN) 25000 152.19 (+0.18)         Damn Yankees (DAMNY) 7500 0.03 (0.00)         Avengers: Age of Ultron (AVNG2) 1941 421.59 (+0.01)         My All American (MALAM) 100000 10.32 (-1.15)         Star Wars: Episode VIII (STAR8) 202 304.63 (0.00)         Tink (TINK) 100000 9.10 (-2.40)         Empires of the Deep (EMDEP) 15000 0.03 (0.00)         Tink (TINK) 100000 9.10 (-2.40)         Tink (TINK) 100000 9.10 (-2.40)         Karen Gillan (KGILL) 1 111.71 (0.00)         Tomorrowland (1952) 500 100.34 (-1.82)         Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 1 114.26 (0.00)         World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 100000 32.74 (+2.55)         World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 100000 32.74 (+2.55)         Alice Eve (AEVE) 1 91.99 (0.00)         The Umbrella Academy (UMBLA) 50000 0.01 (-0.03)         Star Wars: Episode VIII (STAR8) 33 304.63 (0.00)         Alien 5 (ALIE5) 1000 37.29 (+3.27)         Gods And Kings (GODKN) 50000 0.01 (-0.04)         Gods And Kings (GODKN) 50000 0.01 (-0.04)         Jem and the Holograms (JEMHG) 1000 29.73 (+3.27)         B.O.O: Bureau of Otherworldly Op (BOOU) 1000 34.02 (+2.46)         Alien 5 (ALIE5) 477 37.29 (+3.27)         Tomorrowland (1952) 100000 100.34 (-1.82)         Viral (VIRAL) 100000 19.45 (+0.57)         Viral (VIRAL) 100000 19.45 (+0.57)         Piku (PIKU) 1 1.26 (-0.74)         Youth - La Giovinezza (LGIOV) 4651 3.03 (0.00)         Return to Sender (RTSND) 100000 1.10 (-0.03)         Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (PNOCH) 100000 0.97 (-0.03)         The Little Prince (LPRNC) 100000 22.08 (-0.65)         Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos (UGCMH) 1 2.30 (-0.70)         XXX: The Return of Xander Cage (XXX3) 100000 7.86 (+0.28)         Creed (CREED) 10709 34.07 (+0.02)         Ladrones (LADR2) 1 2.38 (-0.62)         World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 100000 32.74 (+2.55)