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Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 18:58 in response to secretstalker's post [BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4]...

Bookmark it, or whatever. This is based on absolutely nothing but my personal expectations/guesses. If I get all three right, it'll strengthen my belief in my own internal radar, if nothing else..

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





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Chris Pratt (CPRAT) 202 68.53 (-0.13)         At Middleton (ADMIS) 100000 0.07 (0.00)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 58585 4.87 (-0.78)         The Homesman (HOMSM) 100000 13.84 (+2.82)         Allegiant Part 1 (DVRG3) 20000 81.94 (-0.39)         The Writer-Director Fund (SCRPT) 10000 19.46 (-0.05)         Lea Seydoux (LSEYD) 18882 49.74 (+0.25)         Selma (SELMA) 100000 17.58 (+0.29)         Gabriel Iglesias (GIGLE) 524 72.55 (-2.45)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 41415 4.87 (-0.78)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 100000 4.87 (-0.78)         Inside Out (NMIND) 300 141.24 (-0.13)         Halloween 3D (HALW3) 100000 0.19 (+0.01)         Labor Of Love (LBRLV) 100000 18.63 (+1.09)         ABC: The Goldbergs (GOLDBS) 20000 17.03 (-0.10)         Planet of the Apes 3 (APES3) 25000 93.80 (-0.60)         Allegiant Part 1 (DVRG3) 100 81.94 (-0.39)         ABC: Resurrection (RESURC) 20000 11.23 (+0.06)         Planet of the Apes 3 (APES3) 25000 93.80 (-0.60)         Insurgent (DVRG2) 100 108.30 (-1.02)         Sundowning (SUNDW) 100000 16.25 (+2.10)         StarBonds Fund 22 (BONDS) 10000 40.45 (+0.31)         X-Men: Apocalypse (XMEN6) 82 169.99 (+0.35)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 100000 4.87 (-0.78)         No God, No Master (NGNM) 100000 0.87 (-0.13)         Captain America 3 (CAPA3) 9999 146.06 (-4.19)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 100000 4.87 (-0.78)         Selma (SELMA) 100000 17.58 (+0.29)         Theo James (TJAME) 50 63.61 (+1.24)         The Kitchen Sink (KSINK) 99999 12.17 (-0.09)         La Vida Robot (LVRBT) 100000 3.58 (-0.42)         Deliver Us From Evil (BWRNT) 5000 37.66 (-0.10)         The Homesman (HOMSM) 100000 13.84 (+2.82)         Zoe Kravitz (ZKRAV) 20000 66.85 (-0.79)         Gabriel Iglesias (GIGLE) 4 72.55 (-2.45)         Friday the 13th (FRI12) 100000 16.49 (-0.37)         Peter Dinklage (PDINK) 50 70.43 (+1.26)         The Homesman (HOMSM) 100000 13.84 (+2.82)         Tony Goldwyn (TGOLD) 20000 40.72 (-0.27)         Desierto (DSRTO) 100000 3.56 (-0.44)         Friday the 13th (FRI12) 100000 16.49 (-0.37)         Oculus (OCULU) 1 31.33 (+2.48)         Chef (CHEF1) 99999 14.35 (-0.05)         Shailene Woodley (SWOOD) 20000 70.25 (-1.16)         Oculus (OCULU) 100000 31.33 (+2.48)         Jai Courtney (JCOUR) 20000 71.22 (-1.58)         Labor Of Love (LBRLV) 1 18.63 (+1.09)         Kate Winslet (KWINS) 20000 38.91 (-6.12)         The Quiet Ones (TQONE) 100000 25.83 (+4.03)         Labor Of Love (LBRLV) 100000 18.63 (+1.09)