ANNOUNCEMENT: NominOptions of this year's leading Oscar contenders in the top 8 categories are now trading.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 18:58 in response to secretstalker's post [BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4]...

Bookmark it, or whatever. This is based on absolutely nothing but my personal expectations/guesses. If I get all three right, it'll strengthen my belief in my own internal radar, if nothing else..

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 (ALVN4) 100000 43.29 (-0.79)         Cinderella (CINDE) 10000 116.74 (+0.12)         Unbroken - Opening Weekend (UBRKN.OW) 100000 21.83 (+0.10)         Entourage (ENTOR) 100000 23.25 (-0.80)         Dragon Blade (DRBLD) 100000 4.21 (-0.29)         The Jungle Book - Disney (JNGLB) 15000 98.14 (+0.10)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.13 (+0.91)         Fallen (FALLN) 100000 5.55 (+0.94)         Get Hard (GHARD) 50000 71.22 (+0.27)         N5: Richard Linklater - Boyhood (N5DRLI) 20000 8.78 (+0.03)         N5: Jessica Chastain - A Most V (N5SJCH) 1 6.25 (0.00)         N5: Boyhood - Best Picture (N5PBOY) 20000 9.35 (+0.03)         N5: Boyhood - Original Screenpla (N5OBOY) 20000 8.49 (-0.03)         Free Fire (FREFR) 100000 14.85 (+0.41)         N5: Robert Duvall - The Judge - (N5RRDU) 19999 8.17 (-0.03)         N5: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash - S (N5RJKS) 19999 8.15 (-0.03)         Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 (ALVN4) 25000 43.29 (-0.79)         N5: Edward Norton - Birdman - S (N5RENO) 19999 8.04 (-0.03)         N5: Ethan Hawke - Boyhood - Sup (N5REHA) 19999 7.78 (-0.04)         N5: Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher - (N5RMRU) 19999 7.24 (-0.03)         Zoolander 2 (ZOOL2) 100000 29.72 (+0.74)         Don't Mess with Texas (DMWTX) 100000 29.17 (-0.19)         Hilary Swank (HSWAN) 19999 26.46 (-0.07)         Johnny Depp (JDEPP) 20000 56.70 (-0.26)         Johnny Depp (JDEPP) 20000 56.70 (-0.26)         Alfred Molina (AMOLI) 19999 88.18 (+0.19)         Mistress America (MSTAM) 100000 2.77 (-0.21)         Gregory the Nuisance aka Pyongya (GREGN) 98439 6.85 (+0.78)         Lee Pace (LPACE) 19999 235.04 (+0.49)         Eli Roth (EROTH) 19999 24.13 (+0.01)         Sandman (SANDM) 100000 36.71 (+0.41)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.13 (+0.91)         Fallen (FALLN) 100000 5.55 (+0.94)         The Choice (CHOCE) 50000 22.58 (+1.16)         N5: Wild - Best Picture (N5PWLD) 19999 7.94 (-0.06)         The Intern (INTRN) 50000 29.31 (+1.18)         Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 (ALVN4) 50000 43.29 (-0.79)         The Sports Fund (SPORT) 10000 17.58 (-0.01)         Stockholm, Pennsylvania (STKPA) 100000 4.89 (+0.35)         Into the Woods H$35 Put (INTWD.PU) 19999 2.49 (-0.03)         The Sports Fund (SPORT) 10000 17.58 (-0.01)         Three Night Stand (3NSTN) 100000 1.24 (+0.02)         Stockholm, Pennsylvania (STKPA) 100000 4.89 (+0.35)         The Interview (NTRVW) 100000 14.38 (+0.72)         Learning To Drive (LTDRV) 100000 2.99 (+0.07)         Stockholm, Pennsylvania (STKPA) 4076 4.89 (+0.35)         Gregory the Nuisance aka Pyongya (GREGN) 100000 6.85 (+0.78)         Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: (CTHD2) 100000 3.29 (-0.04)         Unbroken H$20 Call (UBRKN.CA) 19999 2.33 (-0.02)         Creed (CREED) 50000 21.21 (-1.04)