Market Announcement: HSX is now up and running. Thanks for your patience.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 18:58 in response to secretstalker's post [BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4]...

Bookmark it, or whatever. This is based on absolutely nothing but my personal expectations/guesses. If I get all three right, it'll strengthen my belief in my own internal radar, if nothing else..

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
Ice Cube (ICUBE) 20000 100.45 (+0.28)         Eli Roth (EROTH) 20000 3.46 (-0.08)         Captain America: Civil War H$185 (CAPA3.CA) 20000 6.56 (+0.32)         Ghostbusters (GHST3) 100000 83.12 (+1.72)         Alia Shawkat (ASHAW) 1 1.37 (+0.03)         Personal Shopper (PSHOP) 100000 3.59 (+1.50)         Hell or High Water aka Comancher (CMNCH) 79995 10.17 (+0.29)         Jacob's Ladder (JLADR) 9000 22.15 (+2.43)         Kate Mara (KMARA) 20000 37.29 (-0.08)         The Shallows (SHALW) 100000 32.51 (+1.59)         Captain America: Civil War H$185 (CAPA3.PU) 20000 0.63 (-0.11)         Atom Egoyan (AEGOY) 1 2.32 (-0.04)         Michael Gambon (MGAMB) 20000 115.01 (0.00)         Frances McDormand (FMCDO) 20000 51.15 (+0.26)         The Opening Weekend Fund (OPENR) 10000 21.30 (+0.12)         Dumbo (DUMBO) 111 53.91 (+7.02)         Ray Winstone (RWINS) 20000 30.45 (+0.08)         Ithaca (ITHAC) 100000 1.49 (+0.04)         Me Before You (MBFYU) 100000 22.01 (+0.90)         Noomi Rapace (NRAPA) 20000 30.93 (0.00)         Deadpool 2 (DEAD2) 500 216.73 (-0.30)         Chris Cooper (CCOOP) 20000 26.46 (-0.24)         Jake Gyllenhaal (JGYLL) 20000 27.32 (+1.15)         In the Garden of Beasts (ITGOB) 100000 1.22 (-0.01)         Widows (WIDOW) 50000 8.20 (+3.42)         Gary Oldman (GOLDM) 20000 59.99 (-0.40)         Kathy Bates (KBATE) 20000 41.02 (+1.44)         Ezra Miller (EMILL) 20000 50.26 (+0.14)         Naomi Watts (NWATT) 20000 50.04 (+0.57)         Jodie Foster (JFOST) 10000 36.37 (-0.04)         Sandra Bullock (SBULL) 20000 148.18 (+0.28)         The Lost Symbol (LSYMB) 100000 0.17 (+0.04)         Wreck-It Ralph 2 (RALP2) 100000 75.22 (+1.18)         Chris O'Dowd (CODOW) 20000 37.64 (+0.16)         Melissa McCarthy (MMCCA) 20000 91.43 (+0.39)         Maya Rudolph (MRUDO) 20000 77.67 (+0.20)         Me Before You (MBFYU) 100000 22.01 (+0.90)         Widows (WIDOW) 50000 8.20 (+3.42)         Michael Nyqvist (MNYQV) 20000 10.04 (+0.08)         Wreck-It Ralph 2 (RALP2) 100000 75.22 (+1.18)         Triple Frontier (TRPFR) 100000 2.01 (+0.03)         Scarlett Johansson (SJOHA) 20000 141.92 (-1.42)         Robin Hood: Origins (RBNHO) 5000 23.53 (+1.44)         Ghostbusters (GHST3) 100000 83.12 (+1.72)         Common (COMMN) 20000 47.56 (+0.72)         Tulip Fever (TULPF) 2500 5.72 (-0.14)         Fast & Furious 9 (FAST9) 300 167.61 (+3.88)         The Last King (TLKNG) 100000 1.72 (-0.28)         Ben Kingsley (BKING) 20000 76.83 (+0.79)         Chris Cooper (CCOOP) 1 26.46 (-0.24)