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We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 19:01 in response to dsbman's post I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than...

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





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Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 20000 2.01 (-6.48)         Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 20000 2.01 (-6.48)         Jake Gyllenhaal (JGYLL) 20000 36.96 (+0.08)         Pacific Rim 2 (PACR2) 65000 43.11 (+0.85)         Steve Jobs (SJOBS) 100000 24.29 (+4.57)         Neal McDonough (NMCDO) 20000 47.72 (+1.76)         Toy Story 4 (TOYS4) 99999 212.01 (-3.96)         Steve Jobs (SJOBS) 50000 24.29 (+4.57)         The Hobbit: The Battle of the Fi (HOBT3) 100000 210.21 (+6.82)         Ballet 422 (BL422) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         The Hobbit: The Battle of the Fi (HOBT3) 100000 210.21 (+6.82)         Match (MTCH) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 20000 2.01 (-6.48)         Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 20000 2.01 (-6.48)         Zoolander 2 (ZOOL2) 100000 31.55 (-0.22)         Laggies (LAGGI) 99 0.48 (+0.03)         Michael Pena (MPENA) 20000 63.59 (-0.39)         Colin Firth (CFIRT) 20000 8.46 (-10.90)         Colin Firth (CFIRT) 20000 8.46 (-10.90)         Mark Strong (MSTRO) 20000 39.22 (+0.84)         My Old Lady (MOLDY) 99999 3.79 (+0.25)         National Treasure 3 (NATR3) 12000 13.58 (-0.02)         Colin Firth (CFIRT) 20000 8.46 (-10.90)         The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 10000 20.00 (0.00)         Kelly Reilly (KREIL) 20000 19.13 (-9.39)         Kelly Reilly (KREIL) 20000 19.13 (-9.39)         Colin Firth (CFIRT) 20000 8.46 (-10.90)         King of the Elves (KELVS) 40000 0.07 (-0.02)         Kelly Reilly (KREIL) 20000 19.13 (-9.39)         After the Fall (ATFAL) 1 0.45 (-0.08)         Kelly Reilly (KREIL) 20000 19.13 (-9.39)         Minions (MNION) 1000 171.97 (+0.55)         Kelly Reilly (KREIL) 20000 19.13 (-9.39)         Colin Firth (CFIRT) 20000 8.46 (-10.90)         Penguins of Madagascar (PMADG) 16725 99.68 (-10.13)         Bella Heathcote (BHEAT) 11111 24.67 (-0.12)         William Hurt (WHURT) 20000 26.51 (-0.23)         The Letters (LETRS) 400 4.66 (+1.84)         Horrible Bosses 2 - Opening Week (HBOS2.OW) 100000 39.64 (-0.45)         After the Fall (ATFAL) 1 0.45 (-0.08)         The Disappearance of Eleanor Rig (TDOER) 1 0.57 (-0.04)         Bill Paxton (BPAXT) 20000 47.88 (+0.06)         The Cellar (CELAR) 20000 20.15 (-0.28)         Hector And The Search For Happin (HECJR) 99999 0.82 (+0.03)         Bill Paxton (BPAXT) 20000 47.88 (+0.06)         The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 10000 20.00 (0.00)         CW: Jane the Virgin (JANETV) 20000 15.29 (-0.06)         Horrible Bosses 2 - Opening Week (HBOS2.OW) 100000 39.64 (-0.45)         The Zero Theorem (ZEROT) 99998 0.15 (+0.01)         The Letters (LETRS) 100000 4.66 (+1.84)