ANNOUNCEMENT: Blockbuster Warrants let you profit from the long-term box office success of the biggest movies.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






But it's surely...

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on May 01, 20:34 in response to Facto's post Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and...

... the HNOV2 number which gets you thinking.  If RS is off by 20%, and the eventual five-day is, say, 100, then...

25R + 75 4-day adjusts to 190, down 30.

20R + 80 4-day adjusts to 196, down 24.

If by some fluke the RS guess proves closer to the actual opening, then...

25R + 60 4-day adjusts to 157, down 63.

20R + 65 4-day adjusts to 163, down 57.

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
Barbie (BARBI) 10000 13.23 (+13.21)         Transcendence (TRNSC) 100000 24.78 (-2.56)         Bears (BEAR) 100000 13.55 (+0.15)         Deadpool (DEADP) 1 11.54 (-0.05)         Star Trek 3 (TREK3) 10000 158.19 (+1.33)         Deadpool (DEADP) 1 11.54 (-0.05)         SpongeBob SquarePants Movie 2 (SPBO2) 2444 35.06 (-0.05)         Cymbeline (CYMBE) 1 5.89 (-0.10)         Barbie (BARBI) 50000 13.23 (+13.21)         Captain America: The Winter Sold (CAPA2.BW) 20000 10.76 (+0.76)         Cymbeline (CYMBE) 1 5.89 (-0.10)         Maleficent (MALEF) 100000 127.49 (-1.39)         Neighbors (NEIBR) 40000 84.23 (+1.02)         Curve (CURVE) 1 9.42 (-0.24)         The Other Woman H$20 Call (OTHRW.CA) 20000 2.07 (-0.25)         Barbie (BARBI) 100000 13.23 (+13.21)         Curve (CURVE) 1 9.42 (-0.24)         Captain America 3 (CAPA3) 10000 163.17 (+3.48)         Hector And The Search For Happin (HECJR) 99987 2.11 (-0.84)         Barbie (BARBI) 35000 13.23 (+13.21)         Freeheld (FRHLD) 100000 8.00 (0.00)         The Other Woman H$20 Put (OTHRW.PU) 20000 3.05 (+0.23)         Captain Underpants (CUNDP) 1 30.64 (-0.20)         Midnight Rider (MRIDR) 100000 12.32 (-1.59)         Captain Underpants (CUNDP) 1 30.64 (-0.20)         Fantastic Beasts and Where to Fi (FBSTS) 126 78.08 (-4.08)         The City That Sailed (CTSAL) 1 9.03 (-0.02)         The City That Sailed (CTSAL) 1 9.03 (-0.02)         Top Gun 2 (TOPG2) 30000 36.57 (+0.04)         Mortdecai (MRTDC) 100000 36.74 (+1.60)         Guardians of the Galaxy (GOTGX) 100000 149.64 (-0.25)         Jake Johnson (JMJOH) 10000 32.46 (+0.48)         Jake Johnson (JMJOH) 10000 32.46 (+0.48)         Mortdecai (MRTDC) 5000 36.74 (+1.60)         Captain America 3 (CAPA3) 100000 163.17 (+3.48)         Victor Frankenstein (FRNKS) 43238 33.53 (-0.03)         Sebastian Stan (SSTAN) 10000 79.47 (+1.07)         Sebastian Stan (SSTAN) 10000 79.47 (+1.07)         Hands of Stone (HNDST) 10000 13.37 (-0.16)         Fantastic Beasts and Where to Fi (FBSTS) 100000 78.08 (-4.08)         Fantastic Beasts and Where to Fi (FBSTS) 100000 78.08 (-4.08)         Barbie (BARBI) 1 13.23 (+13.21)         Star Trek 3 (TREK3) 100000 158.19 (+1.33)         How to Train Your Dragon 2 (HTYD2) 50000 200.06 (+0.45)         Magic Mike 2 (MGCM2) 10000 50.39 (+0.48)         The LEGO Movie 2 (LEGO2) 24999 136.10 (+7.16)         The Drop (TDROP) 100000 8.82 (-0.08)         National Treasure 3 (NATR3) 24266 30.46 (+8.81)         Freeheld (FRHLD) 100000 8.00 (0.00)         The Amazing Spider-Man 2 H$95 Ca (SPID5.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)