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But it's surely...

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on May 01, 20:34 in response to Facto's post Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and...

... the HNOV2 number which gets you thinking.  If RS is off by 20%, and the eventual five-day is, say, 100, then...

25R + 75 4-day adjusts to 190, down 30.

20R + 80 4-day adjusts to 196, down 24.

If by some fluke the RS guess proves closer to the actual opening, then...

25R + 60 4-day adjusts to 157, down 63.

20R + 65 4-day adjusts to 163, down 57.

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





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Into the Woods - Opening Weekend (INTWD.OW) 100000 33.58 (-1.65)         Stockholm, Pennsylvania (STKPA) 100000 5.00 (0.00)         Shaolin Temple (SLTMP) 100000 19.68 (-0.32)         Night at the Museum: Secret of t (NMUS3) 29999 74.40 (-12.15)         The Interview (NTRVW) 100000 13.37 (+7.01)         Don Verdean (DVERD) 100000 7.57 (+0.16)         The Boy Next Door (BOYND) 100000 21.34 (-0.71)         Dragon Blade (DRBLD) 99999 4.27 (-0.73)         Fallen (FALLN) 99999 5.44 (+2.56)         Into the Woods (INTWD) 10000 83.14 (-5.56)         Get Hard (GHARD) 100000 70.56 (+2.29)         The Interview (NTRVW) 100000 13.37 (+7.01)         The Gunman (PGUNM) 19991 24.05 (-0.61)         The Divergent Series: Insurgent (DVRG2) 9000 137.84 (+0.04)         The Gunman (PGUNM) 40000 24.05 (-0.61)         Stockholm, Pennsylvania (STKPA) 9098 5.00 (0.00)         N5: Foxcatcher - Best Picture (N5PFOX) 10000 4.56 (-0.53)         Creed (CREED) 39991 21.73 (-0.28)         Mistress America (MSTAM) 100000 3.01 (-0.44)         The Gray Man (GRYMN) 100000 1.96 (-0.16)         The Interview (NTRVW) 9000 13.37 (+7.01)         Free Fire (FREFR) 100 15.00 (0.00)         The Disappointments Room (DSPRM) 10000 15.51 (-0.17)         Night at the Museum: Secret of t (NMUS3) 100000 74.40 (-12.15)         The Disappointments Room (DSPRM) 50000 15.51 (-0.17)         Night at the Museum: Secret of t (NMUS3) 100000 74.40 (-12.15)         The Pyramid (PYRMD) 100000 2.91 (-0.09)         Stockholm, Pennsylvania (STKPA) 100000 5.00 (0.00)         Top Five (FFMUS) 10000 19.44 (-0.07)         The Pyramid (PYRMD) 100000 2.91 (-0.09)         Top Five (FFMUS) 10000 19.44 (-0.07)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.05 (+3.85)         True Story (TRUES) 100000 8.63 (+0.53)         Gregory the Nuisance aka Pyongya (GREGN) 99999 6.75 (+1.25)         Get Hard (GHARD) 99999 70.56 (+2.29)         Mistress America (MSTAM) 5999 3.01 (-0.44)         Into the Woods (INTWD) 9000 83.14 (-5.56)         Scouts vs. Zombies (SVSZ) 19999 28.57 (-0.01)         Scouts vs. Zombies (SVSZ) 19999 28.57 (-0.01)         N5: Jack O'Connell - Unbroken - (N5AJOC) 9000 3.47 (-0.01)         Steve Jobs (SJOBS) 19999 24.51 (-0.01)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 25000 4.05 (+3.85)         The Pyramid (PYRMD) 100000 2.91 (-0.09)         The Great Wall (GRTWL) 99999 19.85 (+2.46)         Steve Jobs (SJOBS) 77000 24.51 (-0.01)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.05 (+3.85)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.05 (+3.85)         The Lost City of Z (LOCTZ) 9999 9.49 (+0.01)         The Lost City of Z (LOCTZ) 9999 9.49 (+0.01)         Skiptrace (SKPTR) 100000 6.04 (+1.04)