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Thx for the context at least but still confused

Posted by: alfpaulytd2012 on May 14, 17:20 in response to RogerMore's post Hmmm... supposed to go under alfpaul's post

accuracy to within a percentage?

Accurate to within 3 of a single digit guess is different from accurate to within 3 of a triple digit number

Posted below, but felt it would interesting enough to mention alone: MTC has a 2012 accuracy rate of about 76%. RS at 57%. ShawnMR May 14, 16:55

I'm not totally sure what the %'s mean. can you tell me the avg variance. Thanks for the info! jwammo May 14, 17:03

Not sure on the dollar figure, but my calculations are based on these examples: ShawnMR May 14, 17:16

you are calculating the average percentage error. correctly, I might add. Cheers. {nm} jwammo May 14, 17:31

uh what? alfpaulytd2012 May 14, 17:06

Please see Roger's and my replies just a couple of posts down. {nm} ShawnMR May 14, 17:20

If mid-20s is 25 and mid-single digit is 5, then mid-teens should be 15. {nm} Antibody May 14, 17:10

I define "teens" as 13-19, not 11-20 (which I would think to be "mid-double digits"). :) {nm} ShawnMR May 14, 17:12

Hit enter too soon: 11-20 where 15 be "mid-double digits" {nm} ShawnMR May 14, 17:13

Wouldn't mid-double digits be between 10-99? Wink {nm} Jay_Beezy May 14, 19:56

LOL! Using RS 2012 accuracy %, Battleship could open as high as 86M or as low as 24M. {nm} thatpj May 14, 17:10

This is from using the formula 1 - ABS(Predicted Weekend - Actual Weekend)/Actual Weekend. RogerMore May 14, 17:15

Hmmm... supposed to go under alfpaul's post {nm} RogerMore May 14, 17:15

Thx for the context at least but still confused alfpaulytd2012 May 14, 17:20

Agreed - it's not perfect, but it is easy to understand and easy to verify, which are advantages. {nm} RogerMore May 14, 17:31

Agreed. My application today was simply to find a min-max for Battleship based on MTC's performance so far this year. ShawnMR May 14, 17:33

Yes. And I'll admit there are probably better measurements and/or terminology that can be used here. I'm just using that formula in my ShawnMR May 14, 17:19

Gotcha alfpaulytd2012 May 14, 17:24

So... the clarify... MTCs 27 "should" equate to a $35.53 weekend???? {nm} dioneta May 14, 22:54

*to clarify... I am asking to make sure I understand your position.. :) {nm} dioneta May 14, 22:57





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Weekend in Taipei (WKNTP) 10000 14.85 (+1.30)          Weekend in Taipei (WKNTP) 25000 14.85 (+1.30)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.10 (+0.10)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 2.62 (+0.05)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 15000 20.00 (0.00)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 19.26 (-0.74)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 19.26 (-0.74)          The Room Next Door (TRND) 8849 5.65 (0.00)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 740 39.60 (-0.10)          The First Omen H$10 Call (OMEN1.CA) 25000 2.98 (+0.17)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.10 (+0.10)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 149999 17.65 (-0.81)          Take My Hand (TAKMH) 37850 1.31 (-0.01)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 1 17.65 (-0.81)          The First Omen - Opening Weekend (OMEN1.OW) 99999 11.93 (+0.47)          Zorro 2.0 (ZOROR) 8000 0.01 (0.00)          The First Omen H$10 Put (OMEN1.PU) 24999 1.67 (-0.12)          Black Bag (BLCBG) 2151 23.24 (+0.07)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The First Omen H$10 Call (OMEN1.CA) 24999 2.98 (+0.17)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.10 (+0.10)          Civil War H$20 Call (CVLWR.CA) 25000 2.62 (+0.62)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Gro (SWAR3) 5 208.82 (-0.29)          KIlling Castro (KILLC) 30000 13.78 (-0.01)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Gro (SWAR3) 1 208.82 (-0.29)          A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (ABBBJ) 1530 32.68 (+0.04)          The Janson Directive (JANSD) 30000 0.08 (-0.01)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 19.26 (-0.74)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 20.00 (0.00)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 57.69 (+0.45)          The Janson Directive (JANSD) 30000 0.08 (-0.01)          The Crow (TCROW) 4100 24.67 (-0.06)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 150000 150.87 (+1.81)          Hypno-Hustler (HYPHU) 30000 22.83 (-0.02)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Arcadian (ARCAD) 50000 1.95 (-0.01)          The First Omen H$10 Put (OMEN1.PU) 25000 1.67 (-0.12)          The First Omen H$10 Put (OMEN1.PU) 25000 1.67 (-0.12)          Hypno-Hustler (HYPHU) 30000 22.83 (-0.02)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 386 223.84 (+0.20)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 199 57.69 (+0.45)          Hourman (HRMAN) 30000 20.41 (-0.02)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Hourman (HRMAN) 30000 20.41 (-0.02)          Sydney Sweeney (SSWEE) 1020 82.55 (-0.01)          Night Has Fallen (HFAL4) 30000 6.33 (0.00)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 5000 44.42 (+1.77)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 10000 64.18 (+3.19)