ANNOUNCEMENT: NominOptions of this year's leading Oscar contenders in the top 8 categories are now trading.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






Gotcha

Posted by: alfpaulytd2012 on May 14, 17:24 in response to ShawnMR's post Yes. And I'll admit there are probably better...

but still, in the example below you use the "accuracy" into some kind of predictive algorithm or whatev to get a predictiion.....context needed to do that.

Posted below, but felt it would interesting enough to mention alone: MTC has a 2012 accuracy rate of about 76%. RS at 57%.   ShawnMR on May 14, 16:55

I'm not totally sure what the %'s mean. can you tell me the avg variance. Thanks for the info!   jwammo on May 14, 17:03

Not sure on the dollar figure, but my calculations are based on these examples:   ShawnMR on May 14, 17:16

you are calculating the average percentage error. correctly, I might add. Cheers. {nm}   jwammo on May 14, 17:31

uh what?   alfpaulytd2012 on May 14, 17:06

Please see Roger's and my replies just a couple of posts down. {nm}   ShawnMR on May 14, 17:20

If mid-20s is 25 and mid-single digit is 5, then mid-teens should be 15. {nm}   Antibody on May 14, 17:10

I define "teens" as 13-19, not 11-20 (which I would think to be "mid-double digits"). :) {nm}   ShawnMR on May 14, 17:12

Hit enter too soon: 11-20 where 15 be "mid-double digits" {nm}   ShawnMR on May 14, 17:13

Wouldn't mid-double digits be between 10-99? Wink {nm}   Jay_Beezy on May 14, 19:56

LOL! Using RS 2012 accuracy %, Battleship could open as high as 86M or as low as 24M. {nm}   thatpj on May 14, 17:10

This is from using the formula 1 - ABS(Predicted Weekend - Actual Weekend)/Actual Weekend.   RogerMore on May 14, 17:15

Hmmm... supposed to go under alfpaul's post {nm}   RogerMore on May 14, 17:15

Thx for the context at least but still confused   alfpaulytd2012 on May 14, 17:20

Agreed - it's not perfect, but it is easy to understand and easy to verify, which are advantages. {nm}   RogerMore on May 14, 17:31

Agreed. My application today was simply to find a min-max for Battleship based on MTC's performance so far this year.   ShawnMR on May 14, 17:33

Yes. And I'll admit there are probably better measurements and/or terminology that can be used here. I'm just using that formula in my   ShawnMR on May 14, 17:19

Gotcha   alfpaulytd2012 on May 14, 17:24

So... the clarify... MTCs 27 "should" equate to a $35.53 weekend???? {nm}   dioneta on May 14, 22:54

*to clarify... I am asking to make sure I understand your position.. :) {nm}   dioneta on May 14, 22:57





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
Unbroken (UBRKN) 100000 49.90 (-1.18)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 25000 40.94 (+0.94)         Gregory the Nuisance aka Pyongya (GREGN) 100000 7.17 (+1.10)         Star Wars: The Force Awakens (STAR7) 1 335.74 (-0.11)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.44 (+1.22)         The Intern (INTRN) 25000 29.58 (+1.45)         Spy aka Susan Cooper (SCOPR) 25000 54.06 (+0.03)         Tupperware Unsealed (TUPRW) 99998 16.68 (+0.05)         Animation Fund (AMATN) 10000 55.43 (0.00)         13 Hours (13HRS) 25000 21.83 (+0.02)         Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 (ALVN4) 25000 43.09 (-0.99)         Beetlejuice 2 (BEET2) 50000 19.99 (+0.03)         The Comedy Fund (FUNNY) 10000 20.46 (0.00)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 25000 40.94 (+0.94)         Indiana Jones 5 (INDI5) 40000 35.35 (+0.09)         Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (GOTG2) 20000 222.54 (-0.23)         Elvis & Nixon (ELVNX) 100000 1.77 (+0.03)         Sandman (SANDM) 50000 36.78 (+0.48)         Madagascar 4 (MADG4) 5000 68.03 (-0.06)         The Interview (NTRVW) 100000 14.47 (+0.81)         Sandman (SANDM) 25000 36.78 (+0.48)         Gregory the Nuisance aka Pyongya (GREGN) 100000 7.17 (+1.10)         Star Wars: Episode VIII (STAR8) 100000 235.68 (-0.50)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 100000 40.94 (+0.94)         The Choice (CHOCE) 20000 22.56 (+1.14)         Fallen (FALLN) 100000 6.03 (+1.42)         The Choice (CHOCE) 25000 22.56 (+1.14)         Captain America: Civil War (CAPA3) 19999 232.37 (+0.11)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.44 (+1.22)         The Interview (NTRVW) 15000 14.47 (+0.81)         Fallen (FALLN) 100000 6.03 (+1.42)         Ben-Hur (BNHUR) 22500 38.56 (+0.02)         Beetlejuice 2 (BEET2) 25000 19.99 (+0.03)         Van Helsing (VANHL) 50000 7.39 (+0.04)         The Woman In Black 2: Angel of D (WMBL2) 50000 18.02 (+0.05)         The Green Inferno (GRNFR) 50000 5.90 (+0.04)         The Big Short (BIGSH) 10000 15.85 (+0.05)         King Arthur (KARTH) 25000 58.96 (+0.10)         Justice League Part One (JLEAG) 99999 241.46 (-0.33)         The Choice (CHOCE) 25000 22.56 (+1.14)         Star Wars: The Force Awakens (STAR7) 19999 335.74 (-0.11)         Forty Thieves (40THV) 25000 40.94 (+0.94)         The Intern (INTRN) 25000 29.58 (+1.45)         The Sound and the Fury (TSATF) 99999 0.62 (+0.03)         Avatar 2 (AVAT2) 19999 289.42 (-0.23)         Stockholm, Pennsylvania (STKPA) 100000 5.25 (+0.71)         Fallen (FALLN) 100000 6.03 (+1.42)         Fire and Ice (FRICE) 100000 4.44 (+1.22)         The Choice (CHOCE) 30000 22.56 (+1.14)         Gregory the Nuisance aka Pyongya (GREGN) 100000 7.17 (+1.10)