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If I were trying to make a case for a 70M opening...

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Jun 03, 21:31 in response to xiayun's post I would not put much weight on the relative strength of...

... I might lead off with the adjusted figures for "Alien" and "Aliens," which are roughly 250M and 180M doemstic, respectively, implying an "Alien" film can get into the 200M neighbourhood domestic. Then, I'd lean on PROME as a re-boot along the lines of the J.J. Abrams's "Star Trek," sweeping away the two "Predator" hybrids and the other sequels. I wouldn't pitch the MTRX2 analogy, which is poor, but I might go the visual route with "300" as an analogy.

But the "Alien" series isn't "Star Trek."

I'd also try to forget that the other analogues I feel intuitively ("Minority Report," "Inception" and even the SSODE "Solaris") were high concept sci-fi thrillers, not horror films, and not rated R, and only "Inception" of course opened near 70M. I might take some consolation from the opening of "Hannibal" and "Passion of the Christ," showing that horror can open well, but those analogues don't survive close scrutiny.

So I might reach for "intangibles," suggesting that the marketing has been excellent, and that there is an appetite for event films which PROME might be able to capitalize on.

I would not put much weight on the relative strength of PROME's international start comparing to SWHTM's xiayun Jun 03, 20:22

I can rest easy now. Thanks for your analysis, as always. {nm} Tanker Jun 03, 20:32

For a sub-$50M start that would normally mean that Saturday's gross would drop from Friday's, as well as a muted Friday start, wouldn't it? {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Jun 03, 21:09

A Fri-to-Sat drop is very likely given the release date, R-rating, and the sci-fi genre; District 9 dropped 10.9% even with its great WOM xiayun Jun 03, 21:27

Wow, I hadn't really taken that into consideration before. It is entirely possible that it could go sub-$50M. accountant_4_Jesus Jun 03, 21:43

If I were trying to make a case for a 70M opening... second gary Jun 03, 21:31

second gary, I'm with you. Might even say 80+ {nm} Ryan_Stewart Jun 03, 21:52

I'm saying there is limited evidence for a 70M opening, and there are real problems in arguing for 70M. I am still... second gary Jun 04, 07:00

Whoever is Ryan Stewart? Also, PROME is no Star Trek. That one had likeable, youthful characters. PROME is a mess, closer to a turd, and not {nm} Facto Jun 03, 21:58

in the least good-spirited. That Lost writer is nothing like JJ Abrams - no, he's a joke, someone who should've never been hired. Sadly. {nm} Facto Jun 03, 22:03

Who should they have hired? You? Did I miss something or are there a bunch of working studio heads on this site? {nm} Ryan_Stewart Jun 03, 22:08

They could have hired someone with actual skills, instead of this irreverent hipster punk (who is hyper-active on twitter). Poor choice. {nm} Facto Jun 03, 22:30