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So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm}

Posted by: baronblacksheep on Jul 02, 14:29 in response to ShawnMR's post Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250...

mtc 3 day only numbers 8 katy perry 52 spid4 {nm}   notfabio on Jul 02, 14:13

Thats a huge drop from RS for Spiderman..... {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:15

huge "difference" :) {nm}   Antibody on Jul 02, 14:18

Ha! Yes. {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:19

If the "RS/MTC more than a coincidence thingy" is in effect, not good news for Spidy.   BionicMoron, EAP leader on Jul 02, 14:20

I guess its how you look at it... It will still likely make over $200M no matter which one is correct {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:22

It does put $200m total into question; who would have thought Ted may end up outgrossing it? {nm}   xiayun on Jul 02, 15:06

I was just reading your analysis on the film... Do you still feel confident about your Tuesday-Thursday numbers? {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 15:10

Starting to feel my ratio of Tue-to-Thurs vs. OW may be too high, but you're right at mine original blog post had $55m OW   xiayun on Jul 02, 15:15

Hmmm... What do you think about a Transformers 1 comparison? July 3rd (Tuesday) open... $36M (including mids) {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 15:24

I don't see the opening day coming close to that; more like around $25m {nm}   xiayun on Jul 02, 21:12

As always... Thx!!! :) {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 21:18

The % difference for Avengers was lower though   xiayun on Jul 02, 15:18

Nothing for savages? {nm}   numbersix_99 on Jul 02, 14:26

Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250 million. Might struggle to top $200m if MTC is closer (which I think they are) {nm}   ShawnMR on Jul 02, 14:27

So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm}   baronblacksheep on Jul 02, 14:29

Its not exactly a "rule" and it has been wrong before... It has shown to be a decent barometer though. As always, "Caveat Emptor" :) {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:31

If the opening weekend obeys the rule. (It might not - and it did not for AVNGR). SPID4 is also an unusual case, opening on a Tuesday.   Roger More on Jul 02, 14:51

It would appear a Tuesday opening could hurt HSX prospects. That's three days of a hot property without the benefit of a multiplier {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:58

All just my opinion, by the way {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:59

It's a definite possibility. It's also what I thought when TFORM opened. I was wrong. (I hate July 4 openers) {nm}   Roger More on Jul 02, 15:16

12 for savages {nm}   notfabio on Jul 02, 14:30

Tagging MTC: [SPID4] 52 [KP3D] 8 [SAVAG] 12 (all 3-day only) {nm}   accountant_4_Jesus on Jul 03, 07:55





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Transformers 4 (TFRM4) 2805 204.00 (-0.35)         The Great Wall (GRTWL) 100000 15.60 (+1.56)         Ken Jeong (KJEON) 5659 118.09 (+2.83)         12 Years A Slave (12SLV) 28295 13.15 (+0.91)         Berberian Sound Studio (BERSS) 100000 0.37 (+0.15)         Copperhead (CPRHD) 100000 0.57 (-0.06)         Benedict Cumberbatch (BCUMB) 20000 106.44 (-0.24)         The Last Witch Hunter (TLWH) 3000 31.14 (+1.27)         Peanuts Movie (PENUT) 1000 43.32 (+3.17)         Dumb and Dumber To (DUMB3) 1000 23.59 (+5.39)         Star Trek 3 (TREK3) 2000 162.17 (+1.30)         The Family Business Fund (GENES) 10000 20.48 (+0.48)         The Great Wall (GRTWL) 100000 15.60 (+1.56)         In the Heart of the Sea (HRTSE) 1000 25.97 (+5.54)         In the Heart of the Sea (HRTSE) 50000 25.97 (+5.54)         Ratchet and Clank (RATCL) 100000 40.05 (+3.69)         Prometheus 2 (PRME2) 3000 42.49 (+1.36)         The Last 5 Years (L5YRS) 100000 16.32 (-0.05)         Ratchet and Clank (RATCL) 100000 40.05 (+3.69)         Alice in Wonderland 2 (ALCN2) 2000 137.54 (+1.61)         The Purge (PURGE) 32550 74.59 (-0.17)         The Heat - Opening Weekend (THEAT.OW) 100000 40.00 (0.00)         Alice in Wonderland 2 (ALCN2) 99999 137.54 (+1.61)         The Counselor (CNSLR) 15000 45.19 (+0.25)         White House Down (WHDWN) 2000 119.50 (+1.83)         Dumb and Dumber To (DUMB3) 100000 23.59 (+5.39)         Divergent (DVRGN) 49477 64.06 (+0.14)         The Heat H$40 Call (THEAT.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         The Heat (THEAT) 10000 96.82 (+2.11)         X-Men: Days of Future Past (XMEN5) 5000 222.18 (-0.80)         White House Down H$45 Put (WHDWN.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Zorro Reborn (ZOROR) 5000 11.95 (+0.07)         The Heat H$40 Call (THEAT.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Mission: Impossible 5 (MISS5) 1000 84.10 (-0.61)         Ratchet and Clank (RATCL) 99000 40.05 (+3.69)         Fifty Shades of Grey (50SHD) 1000 39.46 (+1.35)         Prometheus 2 (PRME2) 1000 42.49 (+1.36)         Alice in Wonderland 2 (ALCN2) 1000 137.54 (+1.61)         The Heat - Opening Weekend (THEAT.OW) 10000 40.00 (0.00)         White House Down H$45 Call (WHDWN.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Into the Woods (INTWD) 15000 49.11 (+0.50)         The Heat H$40 Put (THEAT.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Fast & Furious 7 (FAST7) 100000 190.85 (+0.68)         The Heat H$40 Call (THEAT.CA) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Fifty Shades of Grey (50SHD) 1 39.46 (+1.35)         White House Down H$45 Put (WHDWN.PU) 20000 2.00 (0.00)         Ratchet and Clank (RATCL) 5000 40.05 (+3.69)         Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (PIRT5) 100000 118.91 (+2.09)         The LEGO Movie (LEGO) 1000 61.82 (+3.93)         Anchorman: The Legend Continues (ANCH2) 10000 128.48 (+2.23)