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So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm}

Posted by: baronblacksheep on Jul 02, 14:29 in response to ShawnMR's post Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250...

mtc 3 day only numbers 8 katy perry 52 spid4 {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:13

Thats a huge drop from RS for Spiderman..... {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:15

huge "difference" :) {nm} Antibody Jul 02, 14:18

Ha! Yes. {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:19

If the "RS/MTC more than a coincidence thingy" is in effect, not good news for Spidy. BionicMoron, EAP leader Jul 02, 14:20

I guess its how you look at it... It will still likely make over $200M no matter which one is correct {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:22

It does put $200m total into question; who would have thought Ted may end up outgrossing it? {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 15:06

I was just reading your analysis on the film... Do you still feel confident about your Tuesday-Thursday numbers? {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:10

Starting to feel my ratio of Tue-to-Thurs vs. OW may be too high, but you're right at mine original blog post had $55m OW xiayun Jul 02, 15:15

Hmmm... What do you think about a Transformers 1 comparison? July 3rd (Tuesday) open... $36M (including mids) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:24

I don't see the opening day coming close to that; more like around $25m {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 21:12

As always... Thx!!! :) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 21:18

The % difference for Avengers was lower though xiayun Jul 02, 15:18

Nothing for savages? {nm} numbersix_99 Jul 02, 14:26

Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250 million. Might struggle to top $200m if MTC is closer (which I think they are) {nm} ShawnMR Jul 02, 14:27

So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm} baronblacksheep Jul 02, 14:29

Its not exactly a "rule" and it has been wrong before... It has shown to be a decent barometer though. As always, "Caveat Emptor" :) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:31

If the opening weekend obeys the rule. (It might not - and it did not for AVNGR). SPID4 is also an unusual case, opening on a Tuesday. Roger More Jul 02, 14:51

It would appear a Tuesday opening could hurt HSX prospects. That's three days of a hot property without the benefit of a multiplier {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:58

All just my opinion, by the way {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:59

It's a definite possibility. It's also what I thought when TFORM opened. I was wrong. (I hate July 4 openers) {nm} Roger More Jul 02, 15:16

12 for savages {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:30

Tagging MTC: [SPID4] 52 [KP3D] 8 [SAVAG] 12 (all 3-day only) {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Jul 03, 07:55





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Save the Green Planet (STGPL) 150000 19.20 (-0.26)          Challengers (CHALN) 75000 28.98 (+0.05)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 59.71 (-0.53)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 59.71 (-0.53)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 150000 37.41 (-0.98)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 300 155.54 (+1.71)          Cleopatra (CLEOP) 150000 59.72 (+0.10)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 380 155.54 (+1.71)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 150000 309.55 (-1.00)          Cabrini (CABRI) 2 20.13 (0.00)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 3000 155.54 (+1.71)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (GHST5) 4000 113.62 (+0.28)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.30 (-0.70)          The Accountant 2 (ACTN2) 1 23.84 (-0.02)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 19.30 (-0.70)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.30 (-0.70)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 20.88 (+1.18)          The Accountant 2 (ACTN2) 498 23.84 (-0.02)          Weekend in Taipei (WKNTP) 1 14.27 (-0.21)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 3 23.56 (+0.12)          Challengers (CHALN) 10 28.98 (+0.05)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 10.31 (+0.35)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 19.30 (-0.70)          Here (HERE1) 1 43.78 (0.00)          Here (HERE1) 2 43.78 (0.00)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 1 23.56 (+0.12)          Abigail (ABGAL) 500 59.71 (-0.53)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 150000 23.56 (+0.12)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 150000 23.56 (+0.12)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.30 (-0.70)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.30 (-0.70)          A Complete Unknown aka Going Ele (GOELC) 150000 17.54 (+0.46)          A Complete Unknown aka Going Ele (GOELC) 150000 17.54 (+0.46)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.49 (+0.59)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.49 (+0.59)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 150000 17.62 (+0.91)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 150000 17.62 (+0.91)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 20.88 (+1.18)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 20.88 (+1.18)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 149999 17.62 (+0.91)          In The Land Of Saints And Sinner (ILSAS) 150000 1.75 (+0.18)          Abigail (ABGAL) 138907 59.71 (-0.53)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 10.31 (+0.35)          Sasquatch Sunset (SQTCH) 150000 7.89 (-0.23)          The Long Game (TLNGM) 150000 6.83 (-0.05)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 150000 2.48 (+0.01)          The Greatest Hits (GRTHT) 150000 1.85 (-0.02)          Knox Goes Away (KNOXG) 150000 1.71 (-0.02)          Spaceman (SPACM) 150000 0.17 (-0.02)          Sleeping Dogs (SDOGS) 150000 1.53 (-0.02)