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THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
He'll win for a good not great movie inferior to Argo in about 15 years ala Scorsese {nm}
http://www.deadline.com/2013/03/argos-ben-affleck-at-center-of-warner-bros-deal-for-nathaniel-philbrick-book-bunker-hill/ {nm} Mar 19, 10:14
This strikes me as quite possibly Ben's Best Director win. Should it be called Bunker Hill or The Battle of Bunker Hill? {nm} Mar 19, 10:17
If it even gets made. Films about the Revolution War don't do well. {nm} Mar 19, 10:24
The Patriot comes to mind with $100M+. With Ben from Boston directing and no doubt a stellar cast, it'll get made. {nm} Mar 19, 10:41
Budget: $110,000,000. It lost money. {nm} Mar 19, 10:55
In Hollybeancounterland, not in Our World. It grossed $113.3M domestic, plus $102M overseas, plus aftermarket. {nm} Mar 19, 11:12
About half of that goes to the theater chain, more overseas. The marketing budget can double the production cost. {nm} Mar 19, 11:16
Whoops, you beat me to the punch. It isn't just "hollywood accounting" that makes films fall in teh red. {nm} Mar 19, 11:18
No, a large majority of domestic gross goes to the studio in the early weeks, only sliding to half later. Mar 19, 11:32
The rule of thumb is domestic gross > production budget = profit. Circa 2000, Overseas, DVD/VHS, aftermarket covers P&A+. {nm} Mar 19, 11:35
Even going by your rule, it at best broke even at less than 3%. {nm} Mar 19, 11:39
$110M doesn't include the P&A spend. Plus, theaters take a cut (on a sliding scale after each week). {nm} Mar 19, 11:17
Has Hollywood made another feature about the Revolutionary War since in the last 12 years? {nm} Mar 19, 11:20
Maybe not, but before Lincoln did $180M+ domestic, had a civil war movie broken 100M+ domestic since GWTW adjusted? {nm} Mar 19, 12:02
Cold Mountain was close enough at 95. It's an arbitrary cut off. Budget matters. {nm} Mar 19, 12:17
He did Argo for $44.5M. Lincoln cost $65M. The Battle here is for a Hill. No tanks, no jets. I say $75-90M budget max. {nm} Mar 19, 12:44
Lincoln, plus the 1776 cinematic drought, fresh Bunker Hill angle, and Affleck should make this a winner for Warners. {nm} Mar 19, 12:05
There's no way he could lose! A superbly crafted period piece with a gifted cast and a superb screenplay. Oh... wait... Mar 19, 11:46
Yep, but that Argo fiasco is what may help him personally, as well as the movie, next time. {nm} Mar 19, 12:01
This won't be his next movie. He may win his make-up Oscar by then. {nm} Mar 19, 12:06
Checking his Starbond page, only Live By Night strikes me as Oscar potential. From the author of BP winner Mystic River. {nm} Mar 19, 12:30
He'll win for a good not great movie inferior to Argo in about 15 years ala Scorsese Mar 19, 12:59
Well everybody's got an opinion, eh? :-) I still think Saving Private Ryan losing BP was an outrage. {nm} Mar 19, 12:49
Agreed on "Saving Private Ryan," although I think "Shakespeare in Love" was not unworthy. {nm} Mar 19, 13:24