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Those films may be more likely to be arb, but what about movies that act as predicted - have a similar OW to tracking, and similar legs to

Posted by: RogerMore on Jan 16, 08:06 in response to Bronzey's post If a film that's heavily held by a lot of the active...

similar genre movies?

There won't be the same push up in price with the adjust, and there won't be the same sell-off to push the price down again. So those movies might be less likely to be arb - and there are more of those movies than there are upside surprises.

(Of course, we may see more of the same dynamic as we saw this weekend - with players trading solely on price movement, and not at all on expected delist. That's how we may see more moviestocks go arb than previously)

I'd expect a lot more ARB posts this year because it's clear that not having a halt/adjust is leaving traders not knowing how to play stocks {nm} diamondman56 Jan 15, 14:52

or they were priced for the game when it still had a halt, and now it doesn't so they aren't easily repriced for the new rules {nm} slipping jimmy Jan 15, 15:01

nah, i see alot more annoying & unjustified reset trading going on with movies currently in BO {nm} adrenalin112 Jan 15, 15:02

The fact that Monster Trucks has made half its price in 3 days tells me that people who play this game don't understand box office. {nm} diamondman56 Jan 15, 18:36

Indeed. {nm} ~JPV~ Jan 15, 18:50

Holiday legs make things arby. Count the arb posts from xmas to mlk wknd for the past several years & compare. I doubt theres many more now {nm} islander Jan 15, 15:13

I asked the same question a few weeks back, and got a "no" as a response, but I don't see how it wouldn't happen more {nm} Bronzey Jan 15, 16:12

IIRC, this wknd would have been a 2.2x adjust, i felt the market had them priced at a usual 2.7. adrenalin112 Jan 15, 17:07

I think it has more to do with stocks not being price frozen for a day, rather than lack of halt/adjust or lack of trader understanding warcraft86 Jan 15, 19:21

If a film that's heavily held by a lot of the active players does far better than expected, how will it not remain ARB? Bronzey Jan 16, 04:36

Those films may be more likely to be arb, but what about movies that act as predicted - have a similar OW to tracking, and similar legs to RogerMore Jan 16, 08:06

Nearly all of the current ARB stocks would've adjusted down, not up. There's also an extra day of box office with MLK Jr. Antibody Jan 16, 08:34

Interesting. Thanks for the insight. I play based a lot on gut rather than reality lol, so I'm trying to work things out as they are now. {nm} Bronzey Jan 16, 15:52





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