HSX, the world's largest prediction market for movie box office forecasts, is initiating a new trial service for HSX members. HSX has begun publishing box office forecasts from independent research providers* who have websites offering box office predictions.

Just as the real stock market has many analyst opinions about market trends and stock values, we expect that adding this dimension to HSX will bring added interest and discussion to the HSX community. If this effort proves valuable, we hope to extend this effort by including metrics on each analyst's historical predictive accuracy.

If you have a website that offers commercial box office forecasts and would like to partner with HSX, please email us at editor@hsx.com.



Tyler Perry's "Madea" to Challenge "Rio"

Opening Weekend Box Office Predictions

Predictions for the Weekend of April 22-24, 2011
Forecasts as of April 22. Click on the hyperlinked numbers above to see the latest HSX forecasts.
Title (Distributor) HSX Market Forecast HSX Staff "Whisper" Forecast FilmGo* Forecast HSX Market 4-Week Forecast
Madea's Big Happy Family (Lionsgate) $31.46M $32.0M $34.0M $74.16M
Water for Elephants (20th Century Fox) $16.63M $16.0M $16.0M $41.13M
African Cats (Disney) $5.90M $6.0M $5.0M $15.82M



WEEKEND OVERVIEW

Thanks to 20th Century Fox's Rio (HSX: RIO), last weekend's Top 10 was up slightly from the year prior for the first time in many weeks. This weekend the trend should continue with the release of Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family (HSX: MDBHF H$31.46 +1.46 for the week) from Lionsgate and 20th Century Fox's adaptation of the acclaimed novel Water for Elephants (HSX: WELPH H$16.63 -2.37 for the week). Disney will also try to capitalize on Earth Day with the documentary African Cats (HSX: AFCAT H$5.90 +0.90 for the week). Many holdover films should perform well this weekend as well, making a strong case that the box office slump of 2011 could very well be over.


MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY

Writer/director Tyler Perry has been very successful at the box office and has built up a very loyal fan following that pretty much supports every film that he releases, especially those featuring his breakout character Madea. His latest Madea's Big Happy Family puts the character in the lead so there is no reason to believe that Perry's fans won't be lining up in droves. Perry's films tend to open in the mid 20s, but his two biggest openings were films that were centered on Madea. 2009's Madea Goes to Jail premiered with $41 million while 2006's Madea’s Family Reunion debuted with $30 million.

Why Did I Get Married Too opened on Easter weekend last year and opened with a very solid $29.3 million. Madea's Big Happy Family should be able to eclipse that number. Perry is quite a prolific filmmaker, releasing between two and three films a year. The sheer number of films he makes could eventually wear out his audience and cause his box office numbers to slip. He's probably not at that point quite yet, but the latest Madea will likely not open quite as big as Madea Goes to Prison due to audience fatigue. Traders on the Hollywood Stock Exchange currently have the Madea's Big Happy Family opening from $31-$32 million while FilmGo.net is forecasting a $34 million debut.


WATER FOR ELEPHANTS

Based on the best-selling novel by Sara Gruen, Water for Elephants from 20th Century Fox stars Reese Witherspoon, Robert Pattinson and Christoph Waltz. The film is about a young man who joins the circus in the 1920s and falls in love with the beautiful star of the show who is married to the ringleader. Fans of the novel will likely embrace the film this weekend, as will teenage girls and women over the age of 35, but the chances of it breaking out aren't very good.

Romantic dramas tend to have a difficult time finding footing at the box office, especially when they are period pieces. Although the film boasts a cast of recognizable actors, none of them have any major pull at the box office. Witherspoon was once a dominant force at the box office but she has seemed to peek as her last few films performed rather poorly. Pattinson is of course the star of the popular Twilight series but he has yet to successfully anchor a film outside of the vampire saga. This indicates that his adoring fan base really just includes fans of his vampire character and not so much of the actor himself. Hollywood Stock Exchange traders expect the film to open at around $16 million and FilmGo.net is also predicting a $16 million opening.


AFRICAN CATS

African Cats is the third nature documentary from Disney to debut on Earth Day (April 22nd). In 2009, Disney released Earth on a Wednesday with an opening weekend take of $8.8 million and a solid five day total of $14.5 million. The following year, Disney released Oceans to a lesser result. Opening on a Thursday, Oceans opened with $6.1 million and a four day total of $8.5 million. Both of these films benefited from school trips stoking their ticket sales. Opening on Good Friday with schools closed, African Cats will not be able to rely on student traffic. Competition for family audiences is rather fierce right now with both Rio and Hop in the marketplace. African Cats could get lost in the shuffle. Traders on the Hollywood Stock Exchange expect an opening of $6 million and FilmGo.net is forecasting a debut of $5.5 million.


Weekend Predictions for Holdover Films

Predictions for the Weekend of April 22-24, 2011
Forecasts and grosses as of April 21. Click on the hyperlinked numbers above to see the latest HSX forecasts.
Title (Distributor) Week # Gross to Date FilmGo Forecast HSX Market 4-Week Forecast
Rio (20th Century Fox) 2 $50.37M $27.4M (-30%) $112.3M
Scream 4 (Dimension Films) 2 $22.6M $8.0M (-57%) $47.5M
Arthur (Warner Bros.) 3 $24.3M $3.9M (-42%) $32.0M
Hanna (Focus Features) 3 $25.5M $4.5M (-38%) $35.0M
Soul Surfer (FilmDistrict/TriStar) 3 $22.0M $5.0M (-32%) $31.0M
Your Highness (Universal) 3 $17.5M $1.8M (-56%) $20.1M
Hop (Universal) 4 $86.3M $7.3M (-32%) $94.1M
Source Code (Summit Entertainment) 4 $38.8M $4.2M (-32%) $42.5M
Insidious (FilmDistrict) 4 $37.8M $4.8M (-28%) $42.8M



Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend

Predictions for the Weekend of April 29 - May 1, 2011

The new films opening in wide release the weekend of April 29th are: Fast Five (HSX: FFUR5 H$63.40), Hoodwinked Too: Hood vs. Evil (HSX: HDWN2 H$9.46), and Prom (HSX: PROM H$10.36).


Forecasts as of April 21. Click on the hyperlinked numbers above to see the latest HSX forecasts.
Title (Distributor) HSX Market Forecast HSX Staff "Whisper" Forecast FilmGo Forecast HSX Market 4-Week Forecast
Fast Five (Universal) $63.40M $66.0M $65.0M $162.8M
Hoodwinked Too: Hood vs. Evil (The Weinstein Co.) $9.46M $8.9M $10.0M $23.9M
Prom (Disney) $10.36M $11.0M $8.0M $32.3M



*Independent research provider websites are not reviewed, controlled, or examined by HSX in any way and HSX is not responsible for the services, content, availability, advertising, products or other materials of any such independent research provider websites, or any additional links contained therein. This page does not imply HSX's endorsement of or association with any independent research provider websites. It is your sole responsibility to comply with the appropriate terms of service of any independent research provider websites. In no event shall HSX be liable, directly or indirectly, to anyone for any loss or damage arising from or occasioned by the creation or use of any independent research provider websites or the information or material accessed through these independent research provider websites.
Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 1 33.38 (-0.30)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 50000 25.00 (0.00)         Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (SNWHT) 27 102.72 (-0.41)         Old (OLD) 100000 58.86 (+1.28)         Old (OLD) 50000 58.86 (+1.28)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 43609 25.00 (0.00)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (SNWHT) 38761 102.72 (-0.41)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Soul Dec 1 Put (SOUL.RP) 20000 7.49 (-0.25)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 10000 25.00 (0.00)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 2472 25.00 (0.00)         Hot Wheels (HOTWH) 100000 7.84 (+2.94)         Soul Dec 1 Put (SOUL.RP) 20000 7.49 (-0.25)         Black Adam (BADAM) 17622 130.28 (-0.58)         Cherry (CHRRY) 1000 1.70 (-0.56)         Cherry (CHRRY) 100000 1.70 (-0.56)         Black Adam (BADAM) 1000 130.28 (-0.58)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Old (OLD) 6000 58.86 (+1.28)         Shithouse (SHOUS) 100000 1.72 (-0.28)         Belfast (BELFS) 100000 3.69 (-0.31)         Wish Dragon (WDRGN) 100000 23.23 (0.00)         Copshop (COPSH) 100000 14.91 (-0.54)         Copshop (COPSH) 100000 14.91 (-0.54)         Jodie Turner-Smith (JTSMI) 20000 19.23 (+0.04)         Wish Dragon (WDRGN) 100000 23.23 (0.00)         Pryor (PRYOR) 100000 1.91 (0.00)         Anubis (ANUBS) 1400 1.82 (-0.02)         Pryor (PRYOR) 100000 1.91 (0.00)         Russ & Roger Go Beyond (RARGB) 100000 1.25 (-0.01)         Russ & Roger Go Beyond (RARGB) 100000 1.25 (-0.01)         Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (GOTG3) 100000 143.55 (-0.56)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 1000 25.00 (0.00)         American Radical (AMRAD) 99999 10.24 (-0.83)         American Radical (AMRAD) 100000 10.24 (-0.83)         The Real McCoy (MCCOY) 100000 2.49 (+0.10)         Clemence Poesy (CPOES) 10000 107.41 (-0.71)         Fatman (FATMN) 100000 3.97 (+0.04)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Fellini Black & White (FELNI) 100000 1.02 (+0.07)         Fellini Black & White (FELNI) 100000 1.02 (+0.07)         Fatman (FATMN) 100000 3.97 (+0.04)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         F.A.S.T. (FAST) 100000 14.96 (0.00)         F.A.S.T. (FAST) 100000 14.96 (0.00)         Mr. Malcolm's List (MLCLS) 99 8.51 (+0.06)