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Box office palooza, weekend update: More Dragon power
Dragon held well, topped the weekend. BUY-rated DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon returned to the top spot this weekend, very unusual for a movie in its 5th frame, a testimony to strong word of mouth. Dragon pulled in $15 million, down only 24% weekend over weekend, topping our estimate by $3.5 million. The movie has cume’d $178 million domestically so far and we are upping our lifetime domestic estimate $22 million to $233 million. This would make Dragon DWA’s second-biggest domestic franchise ever, topping hit Kung Fu Panda and trailing only Shrek. The international cume. to date of $194 million is pacing near the domestic total, suggesting the movie won’t have the typical overseas multiplier. Yet domestic drives profits and we see healthy total returns and a likely sequel.
Weekend rundown. Box office for the top 12 movies over the weekend fell 14% y/y to $89.6 million, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com, above our estimate for a 24.6% drop. CBS Films’ The Back-Up Plan [PLANB] was second in its opening weekend with $12.3 million, in line with our estimate. Another notable opener, Warner Bros.’ The Losers [LOSRS], delivered $9.6 million, $4 million above our model, although Hollywood expectations were higher.
Next weekend outlook. We forecast a 46.6% y/y decline in domestic box office for the top 12 movies next weekend to $80.3 million. We see Warner Bros.’ remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street [NELMS] leading the weekend with $19.5 million in its opening. We see Dragon second with $11.2 million, declining 25% w/w. We have Summit’s Furry Vengeance [FURYV], a comedy starring Brendan Fraser, third with $11.1 million in its debut weekend. Last year’s top movie, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, pulled in $85 million in its opening weekend
2Q10, 3Q10, 4Q10 outlooks. Our bottoms-up 2Q10 industry box office estimate is tweaked up 10 basis points to 10.4% growth, still near our theater models. In 3Q10 we see 11.9% growth and in 4Q10 we expect a 6.6% decline against tough Avatar comps.
Tag(s): PLANB, LOSRS, NELMS, FURYV
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By Barton Crockett on Tuesday, April 27, 2010 @ 02:24 PM
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