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Box office palooza, weekend update: A pause before Shrek
Quiet weekend ahead of Shrek 4. Box office for the top 12 movies last weekend was slightly shy of our model and close to flat with last year — a quiet weekend ahead of next week's crucial bow for Shrek Forever After [SHRK4], key near-term for shares of DreamWorks Animation and our pick for top movie of the summer.
Weekend rundown. Box office for the top 12 movies over the weekend rose 2.7% y/y to $134.4 million, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com, $4.4 million below our estimate for a 6.1% rise. Disney/Marvel/Paramount’s Iron Man 2 [IRNM2] was No. 1, but its $53.0 million tally fell nearly 60% from opening weekend and missed our estimate by $6.8 million, prompting us to cut our total domestic outlook for the film by $36 million to $311 million. Universal’s Robin Hood [RBNHD], starring Russell Crowe, was second with $37.1 million in its opening weekend, $2.2 million below our estimate. Summit's Letters to Juliet [LJULT] was third, with $13.8 million in its opening weekend, $2.3 million above our model. DWA's How to Train Your Dragon, was fifth with $5.1 million, falling only 23% to come in $400,000 above our estimate.
Shrek outlook. Next week, we're modeling that Shrek Forever After pulls in $121.3 million in its opening weekend, on its way to a total domestic haul of $405 million and an international total of $607 million. By comparison, Shrek 3 debuted on May 18, 2007, with a domestic opening weekend tally of $121.6 million, on its way to a total run of $322.7 million domestically and $476.2 million internationally. Shrek 2 opened on May 19, 2004, with $108 million in its debut weekend, on its way to a total run of $441 million domestically and $478 million internationally. We assume that 3-D surcharges will allow Shrek 4 to enjoy a total run on par with Shrek 2, but with attendance like Shrek 3. We understand that tracking data until last week pointed to an opening close to $100 million for Shrek 4, but tracking has been rising as marketing picks up, prompting us for now to stick with our opening estimate. Also, based on the history of Shrek movies, an opening in the $100 million to $120 million range should be consistent with our full run estimate for Shrek 4. The hold will be key.
Next weekend outlook. We forecast a 16.4% y/y rise in domestic box office for the top 12 movies next weekend to $197.7 million. After Shrek, we have Iron Man 2 with $25.3 million, then Robin Hood with $18.6 million. Last year’s top movie, Night at the Museum II, tallied $54 million in its opening weekend.
Industry estimates adjusted. Primarily due to Iron Man 2, we are trimming our 2Q10 industry box office estimate to 3.1% growth from 4.7% previously. This is a few percentage points below our models for theater companies Regal (HOLD) and Cinemark (HOLD), which are based on earlier, rosier industry forecasts. Quarter-to-date, box office is up 1.7% to $1,211.9 million, accounting for 41.3% of our 2Q10 estimate. In 3Q10 we see 11.3% growth, versus 11.1% previously. For 4Q10, we continue to model a 6.6% decline against tough Avatar comps.
Peer inside for more movie palooza. Please look inside this note for bottom-up box office estimates for the year, including predictions of top 20 movies for the year and by quarter, top movies by week, top 10 movies by studio, and our take on the 3-D and animated slates for year.
Tag(s): SHRK4, IRNM2, RBNHD, LJULT
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By Barton Crockett on Tuesday, May 18, 2010 @ 02:50 PM
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