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Box office palooza, weekend update: Light, but near our view
Box office declined, as we had expected. Box office for the top 12 movies over the weekend fell 24.3% y/y to $121.8 million, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com, near our estimate of $122.6 million.
Shrek very close to our view. Shrek 4 [SHRK4] was the top movie for the weekend with $25.3M in its fourth weekend, $1.3M below our estimate. The movie held better Tues. through Thurs. after the Memorial Day weekend than we had modeled, so our outlook for a $250M total run is intact.
Other variances. Otherwise, Marmaduke [MARMA] from Fox opened with $11.3M, $6.7M lighter than we had modeled, and Sex in the City 2 [SATC2] from Warner Bros. pulled in $12.7M in its second weekend, $4.3M less than we had thought. But Killers [5KILR] from Lionsgate opened with $16.1M, way above our overly conservative $3.3M estimate.
Trimming 2Q box office estimate. We’ve cut our 2Q10 industry box office forecast by one percentage point to a decline of 5.9%. Quarter-to-date, box office is down 3.7% to $1,825.1M, accounting for 68% of our 2Q10 estimate.
Next weekend outlook. We forecast flat y/y domestic box office for the top 12 movies next weekend, or $131.7M, with A-Team [ATEAM] the top movie with $35.5M in its opening weekend. We see The Karate Kid [KFKID] second with $26.9M in its opening weekend, followed by Shrek 4 with $14.7M in its fifth weekend. Last year’s top movie, The Hangover, made $32.7M in its second weekend.
Peer inside for more movie palooza. Please look inside this note for bottom-up box office estimates for the year, including predictions of top 20 movies for the year and by quarter, top movies by week, top 10 movies by studio, and our take on the 3-D and animated slates for year.
Tag(s): SHRK4, MARMA, SATC2, 5KILR, ATEAM, KFKID
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By Barton Crockett on Thursday, June 10, 2010 @ 02:09 PM
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