Analyst's Corner
Toy Story 3 takes a victory lap. Box office for the top 12 movies this weekend, the last of 2Q10, totaled $156.8M, down 18.7% from a year-ago period that featured the opening of Transformers 2, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com. The weekend was a tad ($8M) above our model, mainly due to better-than-expected openings by Grown Ups and Knight and Day.
Weekend rundown. Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 3 ranked first with $59M in its second...
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By Barton Crockett on
Wednesday, June 30, 2010 @ 05:06 PM
780 views
A question mark in a solid weekend. Disney’s Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] opened stronger than we modeled and generally met expectations for a robust performance in a weekend that was very solid, in line with our forecast. However, we see one slightly negative point in this otherwise upbeat story, evidence that 3-D may be topping out.
The story behind Toy Story. Toy Story 3 opened with domestic box office of $109M, $13.7M above our estimate, the biggest Pixar...
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By Barton Crockett on
Tuesday, June 22, 2010 @ 02:57 PM
845 views
Box office declined, as we had expected. Box office for the top 12 movies over the weekend fell 24.3% y/y to $121.8 million, according to preliminary data from boxofficemojo.com, near our estimate of $122.6 million.
Shrek very close to our view. Shrek 4 [SHRK4] was the top movie for the weekend with $25.3M in its fourth weekend, $1.3M below our estimate. The movie held better Tues. through Thurs. after the Memorial Day weekend than we had modeled, so our...
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By Barton Crockett on
Thursday, June 10, 2010 @ 02:09 PM
898 views
Weak weekend; Shrek 4 didn’t hold as we had hoped. Two major movies, Warner Bros.’ Sex and the City 2 [SATC2] and Disney’s Prince of Persia [PRSIA], opened light, while DreamWorks Animation’s Shrek Forever After [SRHK4] did not hold as well as hoped, resulting in a disappointing Memorial Day weekend for the box office and another reduction to our outlook for the latest sequel in DWA’s most profitable franchise.
Shrek details. Shrek 4 was the top movie...
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By Barton Crockett on
Wednesday, June 2, 2010 @ 04:49 PM
850 views
Street could be shocked, but there were positives. Shrek 4 [SHRK4] opened with only $71.3M domestically, below our recently reduced $88.5M est, and down 41% from Shrek 3, a figure that could shock investors and prompt a Monday sell-off of shares of DreamWorks Animation. However, there were mitigating positives, including a very favorable audience reaction that argues for a strong, How to Train Your Dragon-like tail and signs of solid international...
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By Barton Crockett on
Tuesday, May 25, 2010 @ 05:32 PM
855 views
Quiet weekend ahead of Shrek 4. Box office for the top 12 movies last weekend was slightly shy of our model and close to flat with last year — a quiet weekend ahead of next week's crucial bow for Shrek Forever After [SHRK4], key near-term for shares of DreamWorks Animation and our pick for top movie of the summer.
Weekend rundown. Box office for the top 12 movies over the weekend rose 2.7% y/y to $134.4 million, according to preliminary data from...
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By Barton Crockett on
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 @ 02:50 PM
916 views
Iron Man 2 [IRNM2] didn’t gleam as much as expected. Disney/Marvel/Paramount’s Iron Man 2 topped the weekend with $133.6 million of opening weekend receipts, and also fared better than the first Iron Man’s $98 million debut in 2008. But the movie failed to live up to talk that it could top Dark Knight’s opening weekend record of $158.4 million, and missed our $149 million estimate, prompting a trim to our outlook for the movie and box office for the second...
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By Barton Crockett on
Tuesday, May 11, 2010 @ 04:07 PM
977 views
Summer outlook; hot, up 12.9%, lead by Shrek Forever After. The traditional summer movie season opens this Friday, the first in May, and runs through Labor Day. So we thought it an opportune time to provide our outlook for the season — which should be HOT, up 12.9% y/y to $4.71 billion, lead by DreamWorks Animation's Shrek Forever After [SHRK4] Our expected five largest movies of the summer are: 1) Shrek, for which we see $405 million of domestic receipts...
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By Barton Crockett on
Wednesday, May 5, 2010 @ 12:18 PM
1120 views
Dragon held well, topped the weekend. BUY-rated DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon returned to the top spot this weekend, very unusual for a movie in its 5th frame, a testimony to strong word of mouth. Dragon pulled in $15 million, down only 24% weekend over weekend, topping our estimate by $3.5 million. The movie has cume’d $178 million domestically so far and we are upping our lifetime domestic estimate $22 million to $233 million. This would make...
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By Barton Crockett on
Tuesday, April 27, 2010 @ 02:24 PM
910 views
- Dragon still holding well. DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon narrowly edged out Lionsgate’s new superhero spoof Kick-Ass [KCKAS] to rank as the top movie this weekend, falling only 20% to $20 million, topping our estimate by $5.5 million. To date, the movie has grossed $158.6 million domestically, and we are leaving our domestic estimate for a total of $211 million unchanged, although, if anything, our estimate seems beatable, because of the...
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By Barton Crockett on
Friday, April 23, 2010 @ 04:00 PM
1464 views
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