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Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.



Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM        8013 views


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Unicorn Store (UNICS) 1131 0.77 (-0.03)         Honey Boy (HONYB) 99999 1.79 (-0.08)         Dumbo (DUMBO) 50000 186.97 (-0.54)         Captive State (CAPST) 50000 6.26 (-0.55)         Us (US) 70000 157.58 (-0.38)         Sigourney Weaver (SWEAV) 1000 21.86 (-0.08)         Luce (LUCE) 100000 2.03 (-0.14)         Sigourney Weaver (SWEAV) 1000 21.86 (-0.08)         Lucy in the Sky (PBDOT) 15000 14.60 (-0.72)         Sesame Street (SESAM) 99999 44.18 (+0.06)         The Friend (TFRND) 100000 15.19 (+1.60)         Every Other Weekend (EOWKN) 20000 3.14 (-0.20)         The Friend (TFRND) 100000 15.19 (+1.60)         The Kids Fund (KIDS) 10000 21.05 (+0.27)         The British Fund (BRITS) 10000 20.28 (+0.07)         Vince Vaughn (VVAUG) 20000 23.94 (-0.16)         Maika Monroe (MMONR) 20000 29.14 (+0.15)         Bolden (BOLDN) 60000 1.84 (-0.10)         Neil Jordan (NJORD) 20000 9.61 (+0.20)         Dwayne Johnson (TROCK) 20000 107.41 (+1.72)         The Boss Baby 2 (BOSS2) 87655 101.96 (+0.96)         Dwayne Johnson (TROCK) 20000 107.41 (+1.72)         Tyler Perry (TPERR) 20000 45.17 (+0.80)         Toby Kebbell (TKEBB) 20000 61.72 (-0.93)         Tyler Perry (TPERR) 20000 45.17 (+0.80)         Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (MFMLY) 25000 146.30 (+1.01)         Judy & Punch (JUDYP) 20000 2.19 (-0.14)         Scoot McNairy (SMCNA) 20000 59.43 (+0.13)         Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 20000 73.52 (+0.54)         Monster (MNSTR) 100000 1.65 (+0.05)         Lena Headey (LHEAD) 20000 26.63 (+0.08)         Kristen Wiig (KWIIG) 20000 91.64 (0.00)         Karyn Kusama (KKUSA) 20000 4.34 (+0.16)         Unicorn Store (UNICS) 9000 0.77 (-0.03)         Jack Lowden (JLOWD) 20000 44.87 (-0.13)         Let it Snow (LSNOW) 5000 1.43 (+0.01)         Dora and the Lost City of Gold a (DORAE) 20000 73.62 (+2.92)         Girls Trip 2 (GRLT2) 1 35.17 (-0.33)         Shazam! (SHAZM) 5000 124.87 (+3.92)         Isabela Moner (IMONE) 20000 60.75 (+0.66)         Dora and the Lost City of Gold a (DORAE) 50000 73.62 (+2.92)         Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 100 286.52 (-0.50)         Dora and the Lost City of Gold a (DORAE) 30000 73.62 (+2.92)         The Princess Diaries 3 (PDIA3) 10000 49.46 (+8.30)         S.C.O.O.B aka Scooby (SCOBY) 100000 45.02 (+0.18)         Untitled Christopher Nolan (UCNOL) 100000 136.54 (+1.65)         The Princess Diaries 3 (PDIA3) 20000 49.46 (+8.30)         The Princess Diaries 3 (PDIA3) 100000 49.46 (+8.30)         Hotel Mumbai (HTLMB) 99999 5.20 (-0.46)         Us (US) 99999 157.58 (-0.38)