SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Breaking Dawn poised to light up the box office.

Business is about to pick up and explode as Twilight fangirls descend upon multiplexes for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 [TWLI4], the penultimate installment in Summit’s blockbuster franchise. Taking a page from the Harry Potter series, the last book in Stephenie Meyer’s fantasy romance series has also been split into two movies. Part 1 features the wedding of Bella and Edward and the consummation of their marriage, moments eagerly awaited by the Twihards. The second film The Twilight Saga: New Moon opened exactly three years ago to $142.8 million. The third and previous film The Twilight Saga: Eclipse opened on a summer weekday for a five-day total of $157.6 million. Anticipation and buzz remain unabated for the latest PG-13 rated sequel with thousands of showings already sold out. Cracking into 4061 theaters, Breaking Dawn Part 1 could light up $153 million.

Warner Bros. brings back its animated penguins for another singing and dancing adventure in Happy Feet Two [HPYF2]. The first film opened to $41.5 million exactly five years ago and went on to enjoy a long run to $198 million. The brand has tremendous goodwill with parents who won’t hesitate to bring their family back for the sequel, even with the 3D surcharge.  Landing in 3606 theaters, Happy Feet Two could score an encore at $41 million.

Even with the added competition from Happy Feet Two, Puss in Boots [PUSNB] is unlikely to decline more than 40%. The Shrek spin-off should collect another $15 million.

After topping the weekend box office, the male-targeted Immortals [IMRTL] looks headed for a 60% drop-off to around $13 million. Fellow sophomore release Jack and Jill [JAJIL] could fall more than 50% to $12 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI4, HPYF2, PUSNB, IMRTL, JAJIL

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 17, 2011 @ 04:38 PM 1834 views

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