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Whisper Numbers: Is Paranormal Activity 4 up or down?

Has it already been four years since the original Paranormal Activity started the current found footage film craze? Paranormal Activity 4 [PNAC4] arrives ahead of Halloween just like the previous 3 editions. Although Paranormal Activity 3 set an October record with $52.6 million last year, the franchise is likely to have peaked. The third Saw film was the high point of that horror franchise before the downward trend began with Saw IV. Paramount is opening the R-rated film Thursday evening and for the first time on IMAX for moviegoers stupid enough to pay the premium. Reviews have been more negative compared to previous films, but that won’t deter fans of the low budget format. Unspooling in 3412 theaters, Paranormal Activity 4 may scare up $41 million.

Tyler Perry [TPERR] toplines Alex Cross [CROSS]. the first movie in which he didn’t also wrote and direct. The PG-13 rated thriller co-stars Matthew Fox [MFOX] as a crazed serial killer. Summit is relanuching a character first played by Morgan Freeman in Paramount’s Kiss the Girl and Along Came a Spider a decade ago. Perry has a reliable fanbase for his brand of films, but will they cross over with him to a genre? On the other hand, will he draw moviegoers who have no interest in his Madea comedies? The film should appeal to fans of the James Patterson series and enough urban audiences. Opening in 2539 theaters, Alex Cross may book $14 million.

With excellent reviews and word of mouth, Argo [ARGO] will attract adult moviegoers through award season. Argo may decline just 30% to $13.5 million.

After a two week reign, Taken 2 [TAKE2] looks to down to about $10 million and cross the $100 million mark during its third weekend.

As with most horror films, Sinister [SINIS] is headed for a big tumble in its second weekend, not to mention added competition from Paranormal Activity 4. A 55% fall would net Sinister $8 million.

The family-friendly comedy Here Comes the Boom [HCTBM] should be able to hold more than 50% of its debut and score around $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): PNAC4, TPERR, CROSS, MFOX, ARGO, TAKE2, SINIS, HCTBM

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 18, 2012 @ 03:47 PM 5125 views

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