The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Will The Hobbit have long legs?

Despite setting a new opening weekend record for December, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [HOBIT] faces an uncertain holiday season. Reviews are not as good as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, while the HFR version has been divisive amongst audiences. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King decreased 30% in its second weekend, but that came after Christmas. With its sophomore weekend falling on the pre-Christmas shopping weekend, The Hobbit may decline about 45% to $45 million.

Tom Cruise [TCRUI] stars as Jack Reacher [1SHOT] based on the book series by Lee Childs. Despite bearing little physical resemblance to the 6”5' tall character, Cruise and the Paramount release has earned great reviews. The PG-13 rated film is an action throwback with old-fashioned fisticuffs instead of explosive stunts. Targeted at older men, Jack Reacher could punch out $18.5 million from 3352 theaters.

Paul Rudd [PRUDD] and Leslie Mann [LMANN] reprise their roles from Knocked Up in the spin-off sequel This is 40 [TIS40], once again written and directed by Judd Apatow [JAPAT]. The R-rated comedy focuses on the couple’s issues with turning 40. Since Rudd and Mann are not exactly box office draws, the marketing has played up appearances by Megan Fox [MEFOX], Jason Segel [JSEGE] and Melissa McCarthy [MMCCA]. But much like Apatow’s unfunny Funny People, the average moviegoers may not related to the first world problems of the well-off. Debuting in 2912 theaters, This is 40 may knock out $14 million.

With its prequel Monster University set to open next summer, Monsters, Inc. 3D [MON3D] becomes the latest animated film to be re-released in 3D. As Disney reaches deeper into their vault, the re-releases have observed diminishing returns. Although the lackluster Rise of the Guardians is the only competition, parents are hestitant to spurge on yet another 3D film that’s already in their home video collection. Monsters, Inc. 3D opened in 2618 theaters on Wednesday and may net $13 million over the weekend.

The PG-13 rated comedy The Guilt Trip [GTRIP] stars Seth Rogen [SROGE] and Barbra Streisand [BSTRE] as son and mother taking a cross-country road trip. The film appears too light-hearted to draw Rogen's young male fanbase, leaving older women as its priamry audience.  The Guilt Trip got a head start on the weekend with $1 million on Wednesday and looks gas up $8.5 million over the weekend from 2431 locations.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.


View more Blog posts »

By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 20, 2012 @ 05:05 PM 2428 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.

@HSXMOVIES on Twitter

Follow HSX on Twitter!

@EDouglasWW @nate_hc Warner Bros. has spent so much money on these movies already, they can't just shelve them for…       Oscar Isaac to star as SNAAAKE! in Metal Gear Solid       How quickly did you act on yesterday's game-changing news?       New trailer for Blithe Spirit starring Dan Stevens, Isla Fisher, Judi Dench & Leslie Mann https://t.co/z52IR7fB78       Australian trailer for Penguin Bloom starring Naomi Watts https://t.co/zcxIBmFPcx       Trailer for The Marksman starring Liam Neeson, in theaters on January 22nd https://t.co/JrzWbYo5OE       Prices have been moving FAST on #WarnerBros #MovieStocks on #HSX. If you're not adjusting your portfolio based on t…       #WarnerBros movies may be down (hope you shorted them on #HSX!) but interestingly the studio fund is WAY up. Guess…       @usatodaylife This move made a seismic impact on the #HSX market. I wonder what the best portfolio configuration wi…       Theatres are going to fight like mad for exclusives. Maybe smaller but more upscale theatres can build high end exp…      
Halloween Kills (HALW4) 100000 74.49 (-1.01)         The Matrix 4 (MTRX4) 150000 46.77 (-2.94)         The Matrix 4 (MTRX4) 150000 46.77 (-2.94)         Malignant (SLVCP) 150000 28.83 (-3.60)         Deep Water (DEPWT) 99999 27.41 (-0.18)         Malignant (SLVCP) 150000 28.83 (-3.60)         Awkwafina (AWKWA) 25000 92.55 (+0.25)         Django/Zorro (DJAN2) 1 29.60 (-0.09)         Django/Zorro (DJAN2) 100 29.60 (-0.09)         Furiosa: Mad Max prequel (MMAX5) 149995 62.76 (-0.33)         The Outside Room (TOSRM) 1 3.03 (0.00)         The Outside Room (TOSRM) 150000 3.03 (0.00)         Snake Eyes (GIJO3) 124997 60.02 (-0.31)         Babylon (BBYLN) 149999 29.54 (-0.29)         Batgirl (BATGR) 100 25.00 (-0.10)         Batgirl (BATGR) 200 25.00 (-0.10)         Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (SNWHT) 149999 111.82 (-0.55)         The Resurrection aka Passion of (RESUR) 50000 17.12 (-0.01)         Supergirl (SUPGR) 50000 23.80 (-0.10)         Wonder Woman 1984 (WOND2) 50000 52.10 (-0.21)         Encanto (ENCNT) 99999 63.29 (-0.33)         Willy Wonka (WONKA) 50000 18.43 (-0.01)         Gundam (GUNDM) 50000 16.29 (-0.06)         Gremlins 3 (GREM3) 50000 11.64 (-0.05)         Foster (FOSTR) 50000 10.89 (-0.03)         Rush Hour 4 (RUSH4) 50000 13.83 (-0.01)         Transformers: Cybertron prequel (TFCYB) 100 30.26 (-0.08)         Nine Days (9DAYS) 150000 3.20 (+0.73)         Transformers: Cybertron prequel (TFCYB) 1000 30.26 (-0.08)         Nine Days (9DAYS) 150000 3.20 (+0.73)         Dune (DUNE) 1000 66.14 (-1.46)         Doctor Strange in the Multiverse (DRST2) 149998 139.29 (-0.56)         Space Jam: A New Legacy (SJAM2) 1000 52.09 (-1.31)         Green Lantern Corps (GLAN2) 50000 13.40 (+0.02)         Batgirl (BATGR) 50000 25.00 (-0.10)         Silver & Black aka Black Cat (SLBLC) 50000 13.62 (-0.08)         The Matrix 4 (MTRX4) 1000 46.77 (-2.94)         X-Force (XFORC) 50000 13.62 (-0.01)         Soul (SOUL) 50000 13.24 (-0.03)         Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (SNWHT) 1000 111.82 (-0.55)         Francis and the Godfather (FGODF) 150000 14.21 (-0.79)         Marry Me (MARRY) 5000 28.41 (+0.06)         Peter Pan and Wendy (PTRPN) 150000 50.88 (-0.33)         Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (SNWHT) 1000 111.82 (-0.55)         Peter Pan and Wendy (PTRPN) 150000 50.88 (-0.33)         The Addams Family 2 (ADAM2) 124998 39.34 (-0.85)         Man from Toronto (MFTOR) 5000 29.67 (+3.24)         Justice League 2 (JLEA2) 50000 13.46 (+0.01)         No Time To Die (JB25) 3000 137.94 (-0.89)         Coming 2 America (CTAM2) 50000 16.50 (-0.20)