SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Holiday weekend looks to Die Hard

The long weekend due to the President’s Day holiday brings four new wide releases, with three opening on Thursday to take advantage of Valentine’s Day. Bruce Willis [BWILL] reprises his signature role as John McClane for the fifth time in A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5]. The former NYPD cop takes his one-man anti-terrorist act abroad for the first time as he visits Russia to locate his estrange son, played by Jai Courtney [JCOUR]. The R-rated action film is tracking extremely well, though much of that goodwill comes from the well-received fourth edition Live Free or Die Hard, which was rated PG-13 and earned $48.4 million in its first five days in 2007. However, A Good Day to Die Hard has garnered by far the worse reviews in the series, which could matter to the older male target audience. A Good Day to Die Hard is also the shortest movie in the series at 97 minutes, and the only one not released during the summer season. Smart fans can see that this unnecessary sequel was made purely for the money, and Fox’s marketing bears that out by amping up the explosive action with little regards to revealing the actual story. Jumping into 3522 theaters, A Good Day to Die Hard could blast away $38 million from Friday to Monday.

Melissa McCarthy became a legitimate box office draw when Identity Thief [IDTHF] exceeded all expectations last weekend. With the R-rated comedy performing well in Middle America, Identity Thief could steal another $20 million over the 4-day weekend.

The feature adaptation of the Nicholas Sparks novel Safe Haven [SAFHV] opens on Thursday just in time for Valentine’s Day. The last Sparks adaptation The Lucky Ones starring Zac Efron opened to $22.5 million in April. In 2010, Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried powered Dear John to $30.5 million while Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth managed just $16.0 million for The Last Song. With the combination of Josh Duhamel [JDUHA] and Julianne Hough [JHOUG], Safe Haven should fall somewhere in between. The PG-13 rated romance has earned terrible reviews, but that’s not gonna matter to the female target audience. Couples will goose the box office on Valentine’s Day, and then Safe Haven should settle in with $19 million from Friday through Monday in 3233 locations.

Beautiful Creatures [BTCRT] is the latest fantasy romance based on a young adult book series trying to capture a slice of the Twilight fanbase. Like its Harry Potter franchise, Warner Bros. has cast unknown in the leads, while surrounding them with recognizable stars. Also opening on Thursday, the PG-13 rated film has some slight competition from Safe Haven, which skews older, as well as Warm Bodies, which is in its third weekend. Putting a spell in 2950 theaters, Beautiful Creatures could collect $18 million over the 4-day weekend.

Escape from Planet Earth [ESCPE] is the first new animated film since Thanksgiving. The PG-rated Weinstein Co. release has the family audience all to itself over the holiday weekend. However, the animated film had been mired in litigation so the marketing did not start in earnest until a month ago. Landing in 3288 theaters, Escape from Planet Earth may take $14 million over the long weekend.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BWILL, DIEH5, JCOUR, IDTHF, SAFHV, JDUHA, JHOUG, BTCRT, ESCPE

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 14, 2013 @ 03:51 PM 3297 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


twitter

@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!


Trade TVStock of #FBIInternational, new series premiering tonight, Tuesdays on #CBS https://t.co/PW3japtGj3       Trade TVStock of #OurKindofPeople, new series premiering tonight, Tuesdays on #FOX https://t.co/jrU1HaEhRS       John Boyega joins The Woman King        ICYMI last night, Teaser trailer for American Underdog starring Zachary Levi as Kurt Warner https://t.co/7bQ68aZPDR       Opening Wide This Week: #DearEvanHansen #TheEyesofTammyFaye https://t.co/tyUQKTCw7h       Trailer for #Passing starring Tessa Thompson and Ruth Negga https://t.co/kqlgtXMKHA       Blacklight starring Liam Neeson gets February 11, 2022 release date https://t.co/RQqmsjr01W       First trailer for The Tragedy of #Macbeth starring Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand, in theaters on December…       First trailer for #AmericanUnderdog starring Zachary Levi as Kurt Warner https://t.co/gb9ZSYkQz8       Trailer for Son of Monarchs starring Tenoch Huerta https://t.co/OKlsAsWnyP      
After We Fell (AFTR3) 1 2.13 (+0.45)         Inversion (NVRSN) 20000 0.02 (-0.02)         Horse Latitudes (LPHOT) 9000 0.82 (-0.06)         Horse Latitudes (LPHOT) 9000 0.82 (-0.06)         Face/Off 2 (FCOF2) 1 28.33 (-0.07)         Face/Off 2 (FCOF2) 1 28.33 (-0.07)         Universe’s Most Wanted (UNIMW) 1 18.69 (-0.08)         Universe’s Most Wanted (UNIMW) 1 18.69 (-0.08)         Out of the Blue (OTBLU) 1 2.00 (0.00)         Peter Pan and Wendy (PTRPN) 1 15.63 (-0.03)         Peter Pan and Wendy (PTRPN) 1 15.63 (-0.03)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 1 12.75 (-0.11)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 1 12.75 (-0.11)         Arthur the King (ARTKN) 1 25.10 (-0.06)         Arthur the King (ARTKN) 1 25.10 (-0.06)         A Quiet Place 3 aka A Quiet Worl (AQPL3) 1 95.52 (+0.43)         A Quiet Place 3 aka A Quiet Worl (AQPL3) 1 95.52 (+0.43)         Bum's Rush (BUMSR) 1 5.06 (-0.02)         Bum's Rush (BUMSR) 1 5.06 (-0.02)         The 355 (355) 1 18.30 (-0.08)         The 355 (355) 1 18.30 (-0.08)         Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (YABDU) 25000 130.64 (+1.64)         The Whale (TWHLE) 1 9.40 (-0.06)         The Whale (TWHLE) 1 9.40 (-0.06)         Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (YABDU) 25000 130.64 (+1.64)         Horse Latitudes (LPHOT) 150000 0.82 (-0.06)         The Things They Carried (TTTHC) 1 15.12 (-0.05)         The Things They Carried (TTTHC) 1 15.12 (-0.05)         Nia DaCosta (NDACO) 25000 17.78 (-0.50)         The Janson Directive (JANSD) 1 5.19 (-0.07)         The Janson Directive (JANSD) 1 5.19 (-0.07)         Flamin' Hot (FLMNH) 9000 7.14 (-0.15)         Nia DaCosta (NDACO) 25000 17.78 (-0.50)         Fantastic Four (FANF2) 1 60.20 (+0.09)         Flamin' Hot (FLMNH) 9000 7.14 (-0.15)         Fantastic Four (FANF2) 1 60.20 (+0.09)         Flamin' Hot (FLMNH) 150000 7.14 (-0.15)         Virginia Madsen (VMADS) 25000 21.98 (+3.54)         Silent Night (SLENT) 1 8.47 (-0.02)         Virginia Madsen (VMADS) 25000 21.98 (+3.54)         Silent Night (SLENT) 1 8.47 (-0.02)         Virginia Madsen (VMADS) 25000 21.98 (+3.54)         The Boys in the Boat (TBITB) 1 12.39 (-0.05)         The Boys in the Boat (TBITB) 1 12.39 (-0.05)         Jacob Marley (MRLEY) 1 27.27 (-0.10)         Old Henry (OHNRY) 20000 0.01 (-0.01)         Jacob Marley (MRLEY) 1 27.27 (-0.10)         Madonna biopic (MDONA) 1 17.58 (-0.07)         Madonna biopic (MDONA) 1 17.58 (-0.07)         Inversion (NVRSN) 20000 0.02 (-0.02)