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Whisper Numbers: A close race for the top five



With all eyes on the Academy Awards ceremony this Sunday, Hollywood serves up only a couple of moderate-sized new releases. The top five films this weekend may only be separated by a few millions. After being edged out of first place by a million last week, Identity Thief [IDTHF] looks to regain the top spot in its third weekend. The R-rated comedy should hold better than 55% and finish around $13.5 million.

Dwayne Johnson [TROCK] starts off a run of 4 films in 4 months with the PG-13 rated Snitch [SNITC]. The action drama is based on the true story of a father who goes undercover in a prison in a deal to get his son a lighter sentence. Johnson’s last solo vehicle, the R-rated Faster, earned $12 million in its five-day Thanksgiving opening. While many recent action films by older stars have bombed, Johnson should appeal to younger moviegoers, especially fans of wrestling where he has returned to become WWE Champion once again. Summit may score $12 million from Snitch in 2511 theaters.

As a male-targeted action sequel with terrible reviews, A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5] is likely to be front-loaded. A 50% drop-off would bring in $12 million.

With word of mouth about a twist ending, Safe Haven [SAFHV] may attract those who are not fans of Nicholas Sparks romances. Female moviegoers should keep Safe Haven from declining more than 45% to $12 million.

 

The horror film Dark Skies [DRKSK] concerns a family trying to prevent their constant abductions by aliens. With Keri Russell [KERUS] as its only star and a PG-13 rating, the Dimension release hopes to attract young female moviegoers. Playing in 2313 theaters, Dark Skies could pull in $10 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IDTHF, TROCK, SNITC, DIEH5, SAFHV, DRKSK, KERUS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 21, 2013 @ 04:14 PM        2182 views


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Tag (TAG) 100000 36.92 (+1.16)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 445.25 (-4.01)         Untitled James Gunn Horror Movie (UJGHM) 100000 18.88 (+1.86)         Hereditary (HERDT) 25000 35.88 (+0.30)         Superfly (SPRFL) 100000 21.48 (-0.17)         Gotti (GOTTI) 20000 2.72 (+0.06)         Top Gun 2 (TOPG2) 10000 77.87 (-0.38)         The Darkest Minds (DRKMN) 100000 30.33 (-0.97)         The Darkest Minds (DRKMN) 100000 30.33 (-0.97)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 42048 445.25 (-4.01)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 5000 372.09 (+3.03)         Dwayne Johnson (TROCK) 20000 158.40 (+0.28)         Deadpool 2 $280M Blockbuster War (DEAD2.BW) 20000 15.46 (+0.07)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 100000 158.96 (-2.90)         Ant-Man and the Wasp H$70 Call (ANTM2.CA) 20000 3.50 (+0.08)         The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 10000 19.91 (-0.08)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 20000 445.25 (-4.01)         Solo: A Star Wars Story $195M Bl (SWAR2.BW) 20000 12.41 (+0.26)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 100000 372.09 (+3.03)         Untitled James Gunn Horror Movie (UJGHM) 100000 18.88 (+1.86)         A Simple Favor (ASFAV) 100000 28.31 (+0.15)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 54110 372.09 (+3.03)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 100000 372.09 (+3.03)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 100000 372.09 (+3.03)         Frozen 2 (FROZ2) 56000 216.68 (+0.18)         Ideal Home (IDLHM) 100000 1.04 (+0.01)         Stuber (STUBR) 100000 27.94 (+4.24)         Beat the Reaper (BTRPR) 99999 10.77 (+0.14)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 100000 445.25 (-4.01)         William H. Macy (WMACY) 20000 3.32 (+0.04)         Untitled James Gunn Horror Movie (UJGHM) 1 18.88 (+1.86)         The Domestics (DMSTC) 100000 1.36 (-0.04)         Ant-Man and the Wasp (ANTM2) 555 180.95 (-0.35)         Siberia (SIBER) 99997 1.60 (0.00)         Smallfoot (SMLFT) 1 55.82 (-0.06)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 50000 372.09 (+3.03)         Hell Fest aka Hellfest (HELFS) 1 23.31 (+0.06)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 50000 372.09 (+3.03)         White Boy Rick (WBRIC) 1 21.52 (0.00)         Tag (TAG) 100000 36.92 (+1.16)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 50000 372.09 (+3.03)         Tag (TAG) 100000 36.92 (+1.16)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 99999 158.96 (-2.90)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (JURA5) 50000 372.09 (+3.03)         Untitled James Gunn Horror Movie (UJGHM) 1 18.88 (+1.86)         Her Smell (HERSM) 100000 4.02 (-0.33)         Her Smell (HERSM) 100000 4.02 (-0.33)         The Hate U Give (HTUGV) 100000 19.84 (+0.02)         Her Smell (HERSM) 100000 4.02 (-0.33)         Suicide Squad 2 (SUIC2) 100000 115.51 (-0.99)