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Whisper Numbers: A close race for the top five



With all eyes on the Academy Awards ceremony this Sunday, Hollywood serves up only a couple of moderate-sized new releases. The top five films this weekend may only be separated by a few millions. After being edged out of first place by a million last week, Identity Thief [IDTHF] looks to regain the top spot in its third weekend. The R-rated comedy should hold better than 55% and finish around $13.5 million.

Dwayne Johnson [TROCK] starts off a run of 4 films in 4 months with the PG-13 rated Snitch [SNITC]. The action drama is based on the true story of a father who goes undercover in a prison in a deal to get his son a lighter sentence. Johnson’s last solo vehicle, the R-rated Faster, earned $12 million in its five-day Thanksgiving opening. While many recent action films by older stars have bombed, Johnson should appeal to younger moviegoers, especially fans of wrestling where he has returned to become WWE Champion once again. Summit may score $12 million from Snitch in 2511 theaters.

As a male-targeted action sequel with terrible reviews, A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5] is likely to be front-loaded. A 50% drop-off would bring in $12 million.

With word of mouth about a twist ending, Safe Haven [SAFHV] may attract those who are not fans of Nicholas Sparks romances. Female moviegoers should keep Safe Haven from declining more than 45% to $12 million.

 

The horror film Dark Skies [DRKSK] concerns a family trying to prevent their constant abductions by aliens. With Keri Russell [KERUS] as its only star and a PG-13 rating, the Dimension release hopes to attract young female moviegoers. Playing in 2313 theaters, Dark Skies could pull in $10 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IDTHF, TROCK, SNITC, DIEH5, SAFHV, DRKSK, KERUS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 21, 2013 @ 04:14 PM        2215 views


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King of Thieves (OHMOB) 100000 2.61 (-1.34)         Mouse Guard (MOUSG) 50000 53.94 (+5.26)         Mortal Engines (MENGN) 50000 39.79 (-1.81)         Transformers 7 (TFRM7) 100000 49.81 (+9.82)         Willy Wonka (WONKA) 100000 44.58 (-0.21)         Jeremy Renner (JRENN) 20000 79.87 (+0.81)         Jeremy Renner (JRENN) 20000 79.87 (+0.81)         Avatar 2 (AVAT2) 3000 365.90 (-1.00)         Eli (ELI) 100000 14.65 (-0.60)         Black Cat (SLBLC) 50000 55.04 (-0.33)         Pickle (PICKL) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         McClane (DIEH6) 26523 23.25 (+0.05)         Willy Wonka (WONKA) 50000 44.58 (-0.21)         Transformers 7 (TFRM7) 100000 49.81 (+9.82)         Fantastic Beasts Crimes of Grind (FBST2.BW) 20000 5.87 (+0.87)         Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (GOTG3) 100000 128.70 (-5.37)         Eli (ELI) 80000 14.65 (-0.60)         Pickle (PICKL) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Transformers 7 (TFRM7) 100000 49.81 (+9.82)         Mouse Guard (MOUSG) 100000 53.94 (+5.26)         Hayley Atwell (HATWE) 100 134.65 (-0.28)         Mortal Engines (MENGN) 100000 39.79 (-1.81)         Elizabeth Olsen (EOLSE) 99 140.66 (-0.28)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 40585 114.94 (-3.76)         Pickle (PICKL) 99962 25.00 (0.00)         Margot Robbie (MROBB) 79 98.79 (-0.40)         Welcome to Marwen (MARWN) 100000 38.92 (-1.54)         Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (GOTG3) 100000 128.70 (-5.37)         Jurassic World 3 (JURA6) 97 284.78 (-0.57)         Jurassic World 3 (JURA6) 42 284.78 (-0.57)         Mortal Engines (MENGN) 80000 39.79 (-1.81)         Fantastic Beasts Crimes of Grind (FBST2.BW) 20000 5.87 (+0.87)         Four Kids and It (4CHIT) 2503 11.25 (-0.13)         Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 100 64.27 (+0.26)         Amber Heard (AHEAR) 100 60.83 (+0.93)         Pickle (PICKL) 34561 25.00 (0.00)         Pickle (PICKL) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Uma Thurman (UTHUR) 100 8.41 (+0.12)         Fantastic Beasts Crimes of Grind (FBST2.BW) 20000 5.87 (+0.87)         Pickle (PICKL) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Sofia Boutella (SBOUT) 100 98.07 (-0.85)         Pickle (PICKL) 100000 25.00 (0.00)         Emily Blunt (EBLUN) 130 76.85 (-0.20)         Climax (CLMAX) 99999 1.27 (+0.43)         Climax (CLMAX) 99999 1.27 (+0.43)         Emma Watson (EMWAT) 20000 83.38 (-0.40)         BrightBurn (BBURN) 200 34.15 (+1.38)         Catherine Keener (CKEEN) 20000 84.97 (-0.40)         Aubrey Plaza (APLAZ) 20000 20.92 (+0.08)         Jeremy Renner (JRENN) 20000 79.87 (+0.81)