SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Two buddy films fight for second



Two new action comedies engage in a battle of sexes this weekend, but Monsters University [MONS2] should repeat atop the box office. The G-rated Pixar prequel has excellent word of mouth and no competition for the family audience. Brave dropped 49% last year, but it was an original story. The much derided Cars 2 tumbled 60% in 2011, while the more beloved Toy Story 3 declined 46% in 2010. Monsters University looks to fall in between around 50% to about $42 million.

The R-rated buddy cop comedy gets a gender reassignment in The Heat [THEAT]. Sandra Bullock [SBULL] and Melissa McCarthy [MMCCA] join forces to take down a drug boss and unite their fanbases for comedy gold. Originally set to open during the spring, Fox was confident enough to delay the release until summer away from McCarthy’s Identity Thief, which bagged $34.6 million in February. The Heat is generating strong interest from women, which should push it ahead of the rival male buddy comedy. Firing up 3181 theaters, The Heat could burn up $40 million.

Channing Tatum [CTATU] and Jaime Foxx [JFOXX] buddy up as cop and President in the PG-13 rated White House Down [WHDWN] directed by Roland Emmerich [REMME]. That combination would normally guarantee a number one opening, but unfortunately, the Sony release is the second “Die-Hard-in-the-White-House” this year after Olympus Has Fallen, which earned a surprisingly robust $98.6 million. The marketing has played up the comedic aspect of the actioner to mixed reviews. White House Down may secure $38 million from 3222 locations.

After taking a bit out of Superman last weekend, World War Z [WWARZ] itself will face heavy competition from the two new releases. The zombie thriller may decay more than 50% to around $32 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): MONS2, SBULL, MMCCA, CTATU, JFOXX, WHDWN, REMME, WWARZ

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 27, 2013 @ 04:45 PM        2236 views


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