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Whisper Numbers: Will Transformers more than meets $100 million?

Three years after completing a Transformers trilogy, Paramount enlisted Michael Bay [MBAY] to direct a fourth film, Transformers: Age of Extinction [TFRM4]. While Autobot favorites Optimus Prime and Bumblebee return, the human cast is all new, lead by Mark Wahlberg [MWAHL]. Although all three previous Transformers were huge blockbusters, moviegoers may be suffering from franchise fatigue. While the third film Dark of the Moon was considered better than the second film Revenge of the Fallen, Dark of the Moon grossed less than Revenge of the Fallen. Even with the introduction of a popular Dinobot and the exotic locale of China, trailers suggest that the latest installment hasn't deviated much from the CG formula of robot on robot action and city-wide destruction. Reviews from critics have not been kind, which will discourage fans who have aged out of the target demographic. The PG-13 rated sequel clocks in at 2 hr and 45 min, the longest yet in the series.  Advance sales are on par with the biggest openers of this year, none of which have broken $100 million, as well as the previous Transformers, which maay not be comparable due to weekday debuts. Playing in 4233 theaters, Transformers: Age of Extinction could blast away $98 million.

After opening less than the first film, Think Like A Man Too [TLAM2] looks to act like most sequels and drop over 50% in its second weekend to $14 million.

With less competition for the family audience, How to Train Your Dragon 2 [HTYD2] should hold slightly better than 22 Jump Street [21JS2] in their respective third weekend and finish $13.5 million to $12.5 million.

With its older target audience, Jersey Boys [JBOYS] may decline less than 40% to $8.5 million in its second engagement.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): MBAY, TFRM4, MWAHL, TLAM2, HTYD2, 21JS2, JBOYS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 26, 2014 @ 02:05 PM 2062 views

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