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Whisper Numbers: Are the days of Saw dominance numbered?



The weekend before Halloween brings another edition in Lionsgate's money franchise, Saw VI [SAW6].  Whether you regard torture horror as trick or treat, the R-rated series have consistently delivered openings in the $30 million range.  However, the sequels have been trending downward, while Paranormal Activity [PNACT] provides direct competition this year.  Saw VI should still claim first place with about $26 million from 3036 theaters. 

Last weekend, Where the Wild Things Are [WILD] brought out fans of the children’s book young and old.  However, the PG-rated tale did not enjoy the typical Friday to Saturday bump of family films.   Mixed word of mouth could keep Where the Wild Things Are grounded in its second outing with a decline around 45% to $18 million.

After breaking out with nearly $20 million last weekend, Paranormal Activity more than doubles its theaters to 1945 this weekend. Although Saw VI poses as a strong challenge, buzz on the fresher fare Paranormal Activity remains high. The low budget horror film might gross out another $16 million.

The CG-animated Astro Boy [ASBOY] is based on the famous Japanese comics and TV series that introduced the world to anime back in the 1960s. The PG-rated film’s audience though appears to be limited to young boys and perhaps nostalgic older fans.  Blasting into 3014 theaters, Astro Boy could lift off with $12 million. 

Law Abiding Citizen [LACTZ] performed better than anyone anticipated in giving Overture its biggest hit.  The adult-targeted thriller should drop less than 50% to $11 million for its sophomore session.

Universal hopes to cash in on the vampire craze with Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant [VAMPA].  However, moviegoers seem to see right through the attempt as buzz has been sorely lacking. Staked at 2754 locations, The Vampire’s Assistant could draw in around $9 million.

Hilary Swank [HSWAN] stars in the biographical drama Amelia [AMELA].  Fox Searchlight hopes to appeal to older adults, particularly women.  Unfortunately, reviews have mostly been negative on the Mira Nair [MNAIR] directed film. Flying in under the radar at just 818 theaters, Amelia may settle for about $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.

 



Tag(s): SAW6, PNACT, WILD, ASBOY, LACTZ, VAMPA, HSWAN, AMELA, MNAIR

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 22, 2009 @ 03:59 PM        2780 views


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