Market Announcement: AwardOptions will begin trading Thursday at 9am Pacific.

SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Star Wars to awaken the box office



Three years after Disney bought Lucasfilm and announced a Star Wars sequel trilogy, Episode VII Star Wars: The Force Awakens [STAR7] finally arrives this weekend bringing back Luke Skywalker, Princess Leia and Han Solo. Along with all the beloved favorite characters, Director J.J. Abrams [JABRA] has assembled a cast of mostly fresh faces for the next generation of the space saga. Even though the three Star Wars prequels dominated the box office, they were a huge letdown for older fans that grew up on the original trilogy. After waiting 32 years, their pent-up demand has led to record-breaking advance ticket sales in excess of $100 million, with more than half sold for opening weekend. Jurassic World demonstrated the drawing power of nostalgia when it set a new opening weekend record of $208.8 million this past June. The December record of $84.6 million held by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is about to be obliterated.

The Disney marketing machine has turned The Force Awakens into a must-see event by showing only bits and pieces and building up the anticipation to a crescendo. The PG-13 rated film was finally shown publically on Monday to near universal praise. Winter weather appears to be a non-factor this weekend, so the only limitation is the theater count of 4134, a couple hundred less than other recent blockbusters. Star Wars: The Force Awakens needs to average $50,550 per theater to surpass Jurassic World, which averaged a record $48,855. The stage is set for Star Wars: The Force Awakens to blast its way to $210 million.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip [ALVN4] targets families with preschool children that are too young for Star Wars. While the first two Chipmunks films opened in the 40-millions range, the last sequel Chipwrecked dropped to $23.2 million in 2011. Fox will have to find a new audience as children who saw the previous installments have all grown up. Parents themselves may be too busy checking out Star Wars. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip could ride out $13 million from 3653 locations.

Universal counter-programs the weekend with the R-rated comedy Sisters [TNEST] starring Tina Fey [TFEY] and Amy Poehler [APOEH]. The ex-SNL duo previously opened Baby Mama to $17.4 million, but that was PG-13 and 8 years ago. The trailers are not particularly funny, and the dumb, raunchy comedy may not appeal to Fey fans. Playing in 2961 theaters, Sisters may connect with enough women for $12 million.

With heavy competition and poor word of mouth, In the Heart of the Sea [HRTSE] is likely to tumble around 60% in its second weekend to $4.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): STAR7, JABRA, ALVN4, TNEST, TFEY, APOEH, HRTSE

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2015 @ 03:34 PM        3895 views


Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!

Rogue Trooper (RTROP) 100000 24.77 (-0.29)         Ben Kingsley (BKING) 20000 54.38 (0.00)         Katie Holmes (KHOLM) 20000 25.27 (+0.16)         Nancy Drew And The Hidden Stairc (DREW2) 100000 5.00 (0.00)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 1 18.00 (0.00)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 99990 18.00 (0.00)         The Flash (FLASH) 52802 65.98 (+0.41)         Vincent D'Onofrio (VDONO) 20000 33.95 (0.00)         Kung Fury (KFURY) 99999 9.42 (-0.09)         Nancy Drew And The Hidden Stairc (DREW2) 100000 5.00 (0.00)         The New Mutants (NMUTN) 9500 35.90 (+3.93)         The SpongeBob Movie: It's A Wond (SPBO3) 20000 52.63 (-0.04)         Nancy Drew And The Hidden Stairc (DREW2) 100000 5.00 (0.00)         Kamikaze aka Destroyer (KAMKZ) 971 30.68 (+1.89)         Separation (SEPRT) 4000 16.86 (-0.05)         The Dig (THDIG) 20000 9.84 (-0.02)         Glass (GLASS) 28762 110.52 (-4.07)         Jake Gyllenhaal (JGYLL) 20000 11.54 (+0.05)         Nancy Drew And The Hidden Stairc (DREW2) 100000 5.00 (0.00)         Hugh Jackman (HJACK) 1706 115.82 (+0.31)         Sesame Street (SESAM) 4 38.70 (-3.81)         Tony Revolori (TREVO) 20000 56.04 (0.00)         6 Underground (6UNDG) 100000 6.21 (+1.75)         6 Underground (6UNDG) 100000 6.21 (+1.75)         Asa Butterfield (ABUTT) 20000 28.75 (-0.16)         Ryan Coogler (RCOOG) 500 117.35 (+0.28)         The New Mutants (NMUTN) 10000 35.90 (+3.93)         6 Underground (6UNDG) 99999 6.21 (+1.75)         Monopoly (MONOP) 7000 14.56 (-1.00)         Fight Night (FTNIT) 4148 24.10 (+3.21)         The New Mutants (NMUTN) 500 35.90 (+3.93)         Replicas (RPLIC) 100000 4.37 (-0.09)         Steve Carell (SCARE) 20000 46.06 (-1.07)         Alita: Battle Angel (ALITA) 50000 72.73 (+0.63)         Nancy Drew And The Hidden Stairc (DREW2) 10000 5.00 (0.00)         Will Ferrell (WFERR) 20000 69.04 (-0.53)         Halloween sequel (HALW4) 100000 76.65 (-5.88)         Fight Night (FTNIT) 5000 24.10 (+3.21)         The New Mutants (NMUTN) 480 35.90 (+3.93)         What Men Want (WMENW) 100000 55.68 (-1.19)         Halloween sequel (HALW4) 100000 76.65 (-5.88)         Adam McKay (AMCKA) 20000 73.49 (+0.14)         Alfred Molina (AMOLI) 20000 46.38 (-0.14)         ABC: The Rookie (ROOKIE) 4 16.92 (-0.06)         Cailee Spaeny (CSPAE) 20000 35.27 (+0.10)         Cailee Spaeny (CSPAE) 20000 35.27 (+0.10)         Hotel Mumbai (HTLMB) 32000 10.92 (-0.03)         Eddie Marsan (EMARS) 20000 65.55 (+0.67)         Hugh Laurie (HLAUR) 20000 37.05 (-0.15)         Jesse Plemons (JPLEM) 20000 54.78 (+0.27)