Market Announcement: AwardOptions for the Oscar nominees are now trading.

SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Star Wars to awaken the box office



Three years after Disney bought Lucasfilm and announced a Star Wars sequel trilogy, Episode VII Star Wars: The Force Awakens [STAR7] finally arrives this weekend bringing back Luke Skywalker, Princess Leia and Han Solo. Along with all the beloved favorite characters, Director J.J. Abrams [JABRA] has assembled a cast of mostly fresh faces for the next generation of the space saga. Even though the three Star Wars prequels dominated the box office, they were a huge letdown for older fans that grew up on the original trilogy. After waiting 32 years, their pent-up demand has led to record-breaking advance ticket sales in excess of $100 million, with more than half sold for opening weekend. Jurassic World demonstrated the drawing power of nostalgia when it set a new opening weekend record of $208.8 million this past June. The December record of $84.6 million held by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is about to be obliterated.

The Disney marketing machine has turned The Force Awakens into a must-see event by showing only bits and pieces and building up the anticipation to a crescendo. The PG-13 rated film was finally shown publically on Monday to near universal praise. Winter weather appears to be a non-factor this weekend, so the only limitation is the theater count of 4134, a couple hundred less than other recent blockbusters. Star Wars: The Force Awakens needs to average $50,550 per theater to surpass Jurassic World, which averaged a record $48,855. The stage is set for Star Wars: The Force Awakens to blast its way to $210 million.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip [ALVN4] targets families with preschool children that are too young for Star Wars. While the first two Chipmunks films opened in the 40-millions range, the last sequel Chipwrecked dropped to $23.2 million in 2011. Fox will have to find a new audience as children who saw the previous installments have all grown up. Parents themselves may be too busy checking out Star Wars. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip could ride out $13 million from 3653 locations.

Universal counter-programs the weekend with the R-rated comedy Sisters [TNEST] starring Tina Fey [TFEY] and Amy Poehler [APOEH]. The ex-SNL duo previously opened Baby Mama to $17.4 million, but that was PG-13 and 8 years ago. The trailers are not particularly funny, and the dumb, raunchy comedy may not appeal to Fey fans. Playing in 2961 theaters, Sisters may connect with enough women for $12 million.

With heavy competition and poor word of mouth, In the Heart of the Sea [HRTSE] is likely to tumble around 60% in its second weekend to $4.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): STAR7, JABRA, ALVN4, TNEST, TFEY, APOEH, HRTSE

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2015 @ 03:34 PM        3752 views


Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!

White Fang (WFANG) 100000 6.20 (+1.37)         Pitch Perfect 3 $100M Blockbuste (PTCP3.BW) 20000 6.95 (-0.06)         Angel Has Fallen (HFAL3) 100000 31.92 (-0.32)         Silver and Black (SLBLC) 100000 89.65 (-1.98)         Silver and Black (SLBLC) 100000 89.65 (-1.98)         Angel Has Fallen (HFAL3) 100000 31.92 (-0.32)         Fighting With My Family (FTWMF) 100000 15.66 (-0.23)         Ocean's 8 (OCEN4) 48539 111.70 (+0.10)         Game Night (GAMEN) 100000 50.54 (-2.72)         Tomb Raider (TOMB3) 100000 80.58 (-2.44)         Fighting With My Family (FTWMF) 100000 15.66 (-0.23)         Portal (PORTL) 100000 12.30 (+3.52)         High Flying Bird (HFBRD) 100000 10.97 (+0.97)         High Flying Bird (HFBRD) 100000 10.97 (+0.97)         Red Sparrow (RSPRW) 100000 72.63 (-0.83)         Every Day (EVRYD) 100000 9.15 (-0.51)         Red Sparrow (RSPRW) 100000 72.63 (-0.83)         Game Night (GAMEN) 100000 50.54 (-2.72)         Tetris The Movie (TETRS) 100000 24.67 (+0.83)         Game Night (GAMEN) 100000 50.54 (-2.72)         Tracy Morgan (TMORG) 20000 46.77 (+0.13)         Tetris The Movie (TETRS) 100000 24.67 (+0.83)         Doctor Strange 2 (DRST2) 25000 100.81 (-1.10)         Ava DuVernay (ADUVE) 20000 60.96 (-2.14)         Ant-Man and the Wasp (ANTM2) 1 168.24 (+0.14)         Ant-Man and the Wasp (ANTM2) 1 168.24 (+0.14)         Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (POPEF) 100000 5.73 (+1.10)         Mario Movie (MARIO) 100000 60.00 (0.00)         Pope Francis: A Man of His Word (POPEF) 100000 5.73 (+1.10)         Sterling K. Brown (SKBRO) 20000 29.68 (+0.16)         Portal (PORTL) 100000 12.30 (+3.52)         The Karate Kid 2 (KKID2) 1 1.05 (+0.03)         Call of Duty (CODUT) 10000 28.13 (-0.08)         Mario Movie (MARIO) 100000 60.00 (0.00)         Doctor Strange 2 (DRST2) 176 100.81 (-1.10)         Silver and Black (SLBLC) 100000 89.65 (-1.98)         Black Widow (BWDOW) 30000 106.86 (-3.30)         Mario Movie (MARIO) 1 60.00 (0.00)         Creature From The Black Lagoon (CRTBL) 100000 8.20 (+0.07)         Black Panther (BPNTH) 24000 494.79 (+1.80)         Battlestar Galactica (BGALA) 1 1.87 (-0.01)         Portal (PORTL) 100000 12.30 (+3.52)         Michael B. Jordan (MBJOR) 20000 99.54 (+0.40)         Jeffrey Wright (JWRIG) 20000 137.02 (0.00)         Jeffrey Wright (JWRIG) 1 137.02 (0.00)         Gemini Man (GEMAN) 90000 51.96 (-0.46)         The Comic Fund (COMIC) 10000 49.88 (-0.06)         Game Night (GAMEN) 99999 50.54 (-2.72)         Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans (LGBTQ) 10000 18.29 (+0.05)         Game Night (GAMEN) 100000 50.54 (-2.72)