SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Batman v Superman vs God

As the major studios steer clear of the second weekend of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice [SUPE2], five smaller distributors will push their films wide in search of an audience.  Despite its record opening, the sequel to Man of Steel has split moviegoers.  The negative word of mouth appears to be louder than those of repeat customers. Last year, Furious 7 lost 60% in its second outing. A similar drop-off would put Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice at about $67 million.

God’s Not Dead 2 [GODN2] becomes the fourth film in four weekends targeted at Christian moviegoers, but is the first with an already established fanbase. Pure Flix’s 2014 original debuted with $9.2 million from just 780 theaters and went on to finish at $60.8 million. Playing in 2300 theaters, God’s Not Dead 2 could raise $12 million.

14 years didn’t prove too long a wait as fans returna wa for My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 [MBFG2]. Older women should help the sequel hold better than 50% for a sophomore haul of $10 million.

Bleecker Street expands Eye in the Sky [EYSKY] wide into 1029 theaters after earning $2 million in 3 weeks of limited release. Helen Mirren [HMIRR] and Aaron Paul [APAUL] lead the cast of the R-rated drone thriller, which has garnered excellent reviews. Even if it halves last weekend’s per screen average, Eye in the Sky should still knock down $3 million.

Meet the Blacks [MTBLK] targets urban markets with a spoof of The Purge. Freestyle is releasing the R-rated film in just 1011 theaters. With no stars and little buzz, Meet the Blacks may hope for $2.5 million.

Roadside Attractions doubles the theater count of Hello My Name is Doris [HMNID] to 964 theaters. In 3 weeks, the R-rated comedy starring Sally Field [SFIEL] has already taken in $4 million. Hello My Name is Doris could add another $2 million.

Tom Hiddleston [THIDD] stars as Hank Williams in the R-rated biopic I Saw the Light [ISTLT]. Sony Pictures Classics did not manage a particular high PSA during its one week of limited release. Expanding wide to 741 theaters, I Saw the Light may strum $2 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): SUPE2, GODN2, MBFG2, EYSKY, HMIRR, APAUL, MTBLK, HMNID, SFIEL, THIDD, ISTLT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, March 31, 2016 @ 04:32 PM 4626 views

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