Market Announcement: AwardOptions for the Oscar nominees are now trading.

SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Can The Birth of a Nation weather the storm?



As the Southeast coast brace for Hurricane Matthew, three new wide releases storm into theaters with mixed forecasts. Based on a runaway best-selling novel, Girl on the Train [GRLOT] should easily top the weekend box office. Emily Blunt [EBLUN] leads a star-studded cast in the R-rated murder mystery that appeals primarily to older women. Universal has built up awareness with a long marketing campaign. The Girl on the Train has drawn comparisons with Gone Girl, which opened to $35.7 million two years ago. However, advance ticket sales are only pacing ahead of Prisoners, which debuted with $20.8 million three years ago. Rolling into 3135 theaters, Girl on the Train could pull away with $26 million.

Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children [PRGRN] connected with the family audience, which should keep it from dropping more than 45% in its second weekend to about $15 million.

With good word of mouth among the older demographics, Deepwater Horizon [DPWTH] should hold better than 50% for a second weekend haul around $11 million.

Nate Parker [NAPAR] directed The Birth of a Nation [TBOAN] and starred as Nat Turner who led a slave revolt in 1831 Virginia. The Sundance sensation was acquired by Fox Searchlight during the mist of #OscarSoWhite, and hyped as a leading awards contender. Unfortunately, Parker’s past has generated controversy over the past months and overshadowed his film. Fox Searchlight then decided to open the R-rated film wide in 2105 theaters, rather than slowly build up through the award season. The Birth of a Nation may settle with $9 million.

The PG-rated Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life [MIDSC] is based on a kids book series. Lionsgate targets the same audience that made The Diary of Wimpy Kids series a success, though Middle School is not as popular as the Fox films. With competition from Miss Peregrine, Middle School could tally $7 million from 2822 locations.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): GRLOT, EBLUN, PRGRN, DPWTH, NAPAR, TBOAN, MIDSC

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 6, 2016 @ 03:31 PM        1558 views


Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!

Johnny Depp (JDEPP) 20000 84.97 (+0.60)         Dwayne Johnson (TROCK) 20000 187.41 (-0.57)         Mario Movie (MARIO) 100000 72.13 (+12.13)         Chris Pratt (CPRAT) 20000 186.12 (-0.28)         Scarlett Johansson (SJOHA) 20000 162.34 (+0.57)         Elizabeth Olsen (EOLSE) 20000 115.64 (-1.42)         Mario Movie (MARIO) 100000 72.13 (+12.13)         Annihilation (ANHLT) 50000 25.92 (+0.55)         A8: Christopher Plummer - All th (A8RCPL) 20000 2.93 (+0.02)         The Cured (3WAVE) 100000 0.55 (-0.06)         Ali Larter (ALART) 10000 35.16 (-0.08)         Seth MacFarlane (SMACF) 400 77.00 (+0.20)         A8: Woody Harrelson - Three Bill (A8RWHA) 20000 2.76 (0.00)         Ashley Greene (AGREE) 20000 108.82 (-0.28)         Jennifer Hudson (JHUDS) 300 45.54 (+0.13)         Z aka Zorro Reborn (ZOROR) 100000 9.79 (-0.71)         Mario Movie (MARIO) 100000 72.13 (+12.13)         Kevin Pollak (KPOLL) 10000 8.47 (-0.12)         Unfriended: Game Night aka Untit (UNFR2) 2100 14.60 (-0.17)         A8: Meryl Streep - The Post - Ac (A8CMST) 20000 2.69 (-0.02)         Judi Dench (JDENC) 200 44.35 (0.00)         A8: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird - (A8CSRO) 20000 3.62 (-0.04)         Creed 2 (CREE2) 1000 53.94 (0.00)         Z aka Zorro Reborn (ZOROR) 100000 9.79 (-0.71)         Game Night (GAMEN) 100000 46.89 (-3.06)         Z aka Zorro Reborn (ZOROR) 100000 9.79 (-0.71)         Transformers 7 (TFRM7) 2300 63.11 (-0.41)         Emma Stone (ESTON) 350 40.91 (+0.26)         Ashley Greene (AGREE) 20000 108.82 (-0.28)         A8: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me (A8ATCH) 20000 3.50 (+0.08)         A8: Lady Bird - Original (A8OLAD) 20000 3.82 (+0.02)         A8: Denzel Washington - Roman J. (A8ADWA) 20000 2.75 (-0.10)         The Cured (3WAVE) 100000 0.55 (-0.06)         Revenge (RVENG) 100000 2.27 (+0.79)         Ali Larter (ALART) 10000 35.16 (-0.08)         A8: Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out - A (A8ADKA) 20000 3.44 (0.00)         Mario Movie (MARIO) 100000 72.13 (+12.13)         Highlander (HIGHL) 33000 1.91 (+0.06)         Highlander (HIGHL) 33000 1.91 (+0.06)         A8: Jordan Peele - Get Out - Dir (A8DJPE) 20000 3.17 (+0.02)         Sonic the Hedgehog (SONIC) 3000 46.11 (+0.68)         Hotel Artemis (ARTMS) 100000 24.27 (+3.43)         Kevin Pollak (KPOLL) 10000 8.47 (-0.12)         A8: Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird - D (A8DGGE) 20000 4.55 (+0.06)         Captive State (CAPST) 1000 10.81 (-0.15)         A8: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk (A8DCNO) 20000 3.57 (+0.04)         Daniel Craig (DCRAI) 20000 117.16 (-0.57)         Ellar Coltrane (ECOLT) 400 15.82 (+0.05)         Rene Russo (RRUSS) 20000 94.11 (-0.60)         Liam Hemsworth (LHEMS) 20000 157.81 (-1.14)