Market Announcement: NominOptions for the leading Oscar contenders are now trading.

SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Can The Birth of a Nation weather the storm?



As the Southeast coast brace for Hurricane Matthew, three new wide releases storm into theaters with mixed forecasts. Based on a runaway best-selling novel, Girl on the Train [GRLOT] should easily top the weekend box office. Emily Blunt [EBLUN] leads a star-studded cast in the R-rated murder mystery that appeals primarily to older women. Universal has built up awareness with a long marketing campaign. The Girl on the Train has drawn comparisons with Gone Girl, which opened to $35.7 million two years ago. However, advance ticket sales are only pacing ahead of Prisoners, which debuted with $20.8 million three years ago. Rolling into 3135 theaters, Girl on the Train could pull away with $26 million.

Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children [PRGRN] connected with the family audience, which should keep it from dropping more than 45% in its second weekend to about $15 million.

With good word of mouth among the older demographics, Deepwater Horizon [DPWTH] should hold better than 50% for a second weekend haul around $11 million.

Nate Parker [NAPAR] directed The Birth of a Nation [TBOAN] and starred as Nat Turner who led a slave revolt in 1831 Virginia. The Sundance sensation was acquired by Fox Searchlight during the mist of #OscarSoWhite, and hyped as a leading awards contender. Unfortunately, Parker’s past has generated controversy over the past months and overshadowed his film. Fox Searchlight then decided to open the R-rated film wide in 2105 theaters, rather than slowly build up through the award season. The Birth of a Nation may settle with $9 million.

The PG-rated Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life [MIDSC] is based on a kids book series. Lionsgate targets the same audience that made The Diary of Wimpy Kids series a success, though Middle School is not as popular as the Fox films. With competition from Miss Peregrine, Middle School could tally $7 million from 2822 locations.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): GRLOT, EBLUN, PRGRN, DPWTH, NAPAR, TBOAN, MIDSC

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 6, 2016 @ 03:31 PM        1695 views


Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!

The Art of Self-Defense (TAOSD) 99999 2.57 (-0.02)         Red Joan (RJOAN) 99999 2.16 (+0.08)         The Rhythm Section (RHYTM) 99999 29.64 (+3.26)         Vita & Virginia (VITVA) 100000 1.38 (+0.30)         The Rhythm Section (RHYTM) 99999 29.64 (+3.26)         Resident Evil (RESE7) 99999 27.01 (-0.07)         Resident Evil (RESE7) 99999 27.01 (-0.07)         The Peanut Butter Falcon (PBFAL) 99999 2.11 (+0.01)         No Manches Frida 2 (NMFR2) 99999 8.46 (+2.06)         No Manches Frida 2 (NMFR2) 99999 8.46 (+2.06)         Tolkien (TLKIN) 96227 5.09 (+2.70)         The New Gods (NGODS) 99999 32.10 (-0.28)         Berlin, I Love You (BLILU) 100000 0.44 (-0.22)         The New Gods (NGODS) 99999 32.10 (-0.28)         Coming 2 America aka Coming to A (CTAM2) 100000 66.44 (+2.33)         Molly aka Untitled Sally Potter (MOLY1) 99999 5.95 (-0.05)         Motherless Brooklyn (MOBRK) 99999 10.16 (-0.25)         Kitty Pryde (KITYP) 1 21.91 (-0.75)         Vigilance (VGLNC) 1 10.72 (-0.08)         Nicole aka Noelle (NICOL) 1 1.69 (-0.06)         A Million Little Pieces (AMLPC) 1 3.57 (-0.08)         Shanghai Dawn (SHAI3) 1 2.11 (-0.10)         The Devil All the Time (TDATT) 1 3.37 (-1.40)         Tolkien (TLKIN) 10000 5.09 (+2.70)         Mary Magdalene (MMGDL) 99999 2.69 (+0.68)         Lexi (LEXI) 100000 18.00 (0.00)         Mary Magdalene (MMGDL) 99999 2.69 (+0.68)         Miss Bala (MISSB) 99999 23.16 (-0.27)         Lexi (LEXI) 1 18.00 (0.00)         Last Christmas (LASTC) 99999 32.05 (+0.27)         Last Christmas (LASTC) 99999 32.05 (+0.27)         The Invisible Man (INVSB) 99999 1.73 (+1.16)         The Invisible Man (INVSB) 99999 1.73 (+1.16)         High Life (HLIFE) 99999 4.83 (+0.14)         The Glorias: A Life on the Road (GLRIA) 99999 9.78 (+0.86)         The Glorias: A Life on the Road (GLRIA) 99999 9.78 (+0.86)         The Good Liar (GLIAR) 99999 20.99 (+0.96)         The Good Liar (GLIAR) 99999 20.99 (+0.96)         The Good Liar (GLIAR) 99999 20.99 (+0.96)         Sony Studio Fund (SONYX) 10000 13.61 (-0.05)         Good Boys (GBOYS) 99999 23.56 (-0.14)         Jackpot (JCKPT) 99999 4.17 (-0.11)         Flarsky (FLRSK) 99999 35.55 (+0.49)         Young Hollywood Fund (YOUNG) 10000 30.87 (+0.01)         Fast Color (FASTC) 99999 2.54 (+1.09)         The Rhythm Section (RHYTM) 99999 29.64 (+3.26)         Fast Color (FASTC) 99999 2.54 (+1.09)         Kitty Pryde (KITYP) 1 21.91 (-0.75)         Vigilance (VGLNC) 1 10.72 (-0.08)         Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans (LGBTQ) 10000 20.11 (+0.10)