SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Fantastic Box Office to be found



Warner Bros. heads back into the wizardry world of Harry Potter with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them [FBSTS]. J.K. Rowling has crafted a spin-off prequel set in 1920s New York City with all new characters. The PG-13 rated Fantastic Beasts features an adult cast led by Eddie Redmayne [EREDM], which makes sense since fans have grown up in the 15 years since the first Harry Potter opened to $90 million in 2001. The last two films Deathly Hallows Part I and Part II debuted at $125 million and $169 million respectively. However, Fantastic Beasts is not based on a book, so there less urgency for the now older Potter fans to rush out opening weekend. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Doctor Strange, which opened with $85 million. Packed in 4144 theaters, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them could capture $88 million.

With a new heavyweight competitor, Doctor Strange [DRSTR] looks to drop down to $21 million and Trolls [TROLL] to $20 million for their third weekend.

Although Arrival [SOYLF] scored with critics, the sci-fi may be too smart for moviegoers. With mixed word of mouth, Arrival may drop more than 50% from its opening to $11 million. The holiday comedy Almost Christmas [MEYER] should be able to hold better than 50% for $8 million.

Hailee Steinfeld [HSTEI] toplines high school dramedy Edge of Seventeen [BESTI]. STX curiously moved the coming-of-age story to this crowded weekend, while its R-rating will keep out most high school students. Edge of Seventeen may take home $8 million from 1945 locations.

After a week of limited release in two 120FPS theaters, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk [BLLHW] expands to 1174 regular 24FPS theaters. The R-rated drama has earned mixed reviews, which may keep adult moviegoers away despite the Ang Lee [ALEE] pedigree. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk may end up around $6 million.

Miles Teller [MTELL] stars as real-life boxer Vinny Pazienza in Bleed for This [BLDFT]. The R-rated Open Road release doesn’t stand out from other recent boxing stories. Fighting in just 1549 theaters, Bleed for This could score $4 million.

A24 expands Moonlight [MONLT] wide into 650 theaters after racking up nearly $5 million during 4 weeks of limited release. The story of a gay black youth has earned rave reviews and Oscar buzz. Moonlight could eclipse $3 million.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): FBSTS, EREDM, DRSTR, TROLL, SOYLF, MEYER, HSTEI, BESTI, BLLHW, ALEE, MTELL, BLDFT, MONLT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 17, 2016 @ 02:31 PM        1867 views


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