SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Fantastic Box Office to be found



Warner Bros. heads back into the wizardry world of Harry Potter with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them [FBSTS]. J.K. Rowling has crafted a spin-off prequel set in 1920s New York City with all new characters. The PG-13 rated Fantastic Beasts features an adult cast led by Eddie Redmayne [EREDM], which makes sense since fans have grown up in the 15 years since the first Harry Potter opened to $90 million in 2001. The last two films Deathly Hallows Part I and Part II debuted at $125 million and $169 million respectively. However, Fantastic Beasts is not based on a book, so there less urgency for the now older Potter fans to rush out opening weekend. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Doctor Strange, which opened with $85 million. Packed in 4144 theaters, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them could capture $88 million.

With a new heavyweight competitor, Doctor Strange [DRSTR] looks to drop down to $21 million and Trolls [TROLL] to $20 million for their third weekend.

Although Arrival [SOYLF] scored with critics, the sci-fi may be too smart for moviegoers. With mixed word of mouth, Arrival may drop more than 50% from its opening to $11 million. The holiday comedy Almost Christmas [MEYER] should be able to hold better than 50% for $8 million.

Hailee Steinfeld [HSTEI] toplines high school dramedy Edge of Seventeen [BESTI]. STX curiously moved the coming-of-age story to this crowded weekend, while its R-rating will keep out most high school students. Edge of Seventeen may take home $8 million from 1945 locations.

After a week of limited release in two 120FPS theaters, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk [BLLHW] expands to 1174 regular 24FPS theaters. The R-rated drama has earned mixed reviews, which may keep adult moviegoers away despite the Ang Lee [ALEE] pedigree. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk may end up around $6 million.

Miles Teller [MTELL] stars as real-life boxer Vinny Pazienza in Bleed for This [BLDFT]. The R-rated Open Road release doesn’t stand out from other recent boxing stories. Fighting in just 1549 theaters, Bleed for This could score $4 million.

A24 expands Moonlight [MONLT] wide into 650 theaters after racking up nearly $5 million during 4 weeks of limited release. The story of a gay black youth has earned rave reviews and Oscar buzz. Moonlight could eclipse $3 million.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): FBSTS, EREDM, DRSTR, TROLL, SOYLF, MEYER, HSTEI, BESTI, BLLHW, ALEE, MTELL, BLDFT, MONLT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 17, 2016 @ 02:31 PM        2159 views


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Wolfwalkers (WLFWK) 11000 1.45 (+0.03)         Gilded Rage (GLDRG) 8000 3.60 (+0.08)         Children of the New World (COTNW) 8000 3.47 (+0.08)         The Duke (THDUK) 4000 6.09 (+0.11)         Super Mario (MARIO) 20000 41.08 (+6.09)         Cus and Mike (CUSMK) 8000 3.73 (+0.04)         Shang-Chi and the Legend of the (SHCHI) 20000 167.03 (+1.27)         The Fallout (FLOUT) 1 8.00 (0.00)         The Opening Act (OPACT) 1 1.47 (-0.53)         Eternals (ETRNL) 20000 163.83 (+3.48)         Super Mario (MARIO) 33333 41.08 (+6.09)         Swing (SWING) 10000 1.91 (-0.02)         West Side Story (WSDST) 20000 53.89 (+2.42)         Summerland (SMRLN) 994 1.71 (0.00)         Jiu Jitsu (JUJTS) 10001 1.61 (-0.03)         American Sole (AMSOL) 99999 21.74 (+0.23)         F9: The Fast Saga aka Fast 9 (FAST9) 22222 198.34 (+0.20)         Totally Under Control (TOTUC) 10000 0.91 (-0.06)         American Sole (AMSOL) 1 21.74 (+0.23)         Death on the Nile (DNILE) 20000 37.68 (+1.64)         FOX: Next (NEXTFO) 1000 10.31 (-0.09)         Summerland (SMRLN) 106 1.71 (0.00)         Rifkin's Festival (RIFKN) 10000 1.38 (-0.06)         The Empty Man (EMPTY) 20000 9.38 (+0.82)         Black Widow (BWDOW) 100000 165.08 (+5.65)         Past Lives (PSTLV) 4000 3.09 (-0.06)         I Want You Back (IWYBC) 4000 3.05 (-0.06)         Good Joe Bell (GJBEL) 100000 11.66 (+1.27)         Balestra (BALES) 2000 5.46 (-0.06)         Over the Moon (OVTMN) 99990 0.54 (-0.08)         Shadow In The Cloud (SHCLD) 2000 6.15 (-0.11)         Creem: America's Only Rock 'N' R (CREEM) 1515 1.40 (+0.03)         Good Joe Bell (GJBEL) 20000 11.66 (+1.27)         Creem: America's Only Rock 'N' R (CREEM) 185 1.40 (+0.03)         Death on the Nile Nov 1 Call (DNILE.RC) 20000 5.02 (-0.44)         The Fallout (FLOUT) 100000 8.00 (0.00)         Dual (DUAL) 2000 11.63 (+0.02)         Belushi (BELUS) 1 8.23 (-1.32)         King Richard (KRICH) 2000 31.06 (+0.03)         Kamikaze aka Destroyer (KAMKZ) 2000 10.53 (+0.03)         Black Widow (BWDOW) 4000 165.08 (+5.65)         Arthur the King (ARTKN) 2000 25.92 (+0.03)         I Used to Go Here (IUTGH) 1004 0.62 (+0.03)         Confess, Fletch (FLET3) 100000 22.21 (+1.32)         Black Widow (BWDOW) 4000 165.08 (+5.65)         Confess, Fletch (FLET3) 10000 22.21 (+1.32)         Dirty Dancing sequel (DANC3) 2000 24.84 (+0.04)         Come Away (CAWAY) 8000 3.06 (+0.04)         Umma (UMMA) 2000 11.74 (+0.05)         The Janson Directive (JANSD) 2000 11.21 (+0.05)