SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Fantastic Box Office to be found



Warner Bros. heads back into the wizardry world of Harry Potter with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them [FBSTS]. J.K. Rowling has crafted a spin-off prequel set in 1920s New York City with all new characters. The PG-13 rated Fantastic Beasts features an adult cast led by Eddie Redmayne [EREDM], which makes sense since fans have grown up in the 15 years since the first Harry Potter opened to $90 million in 2001. The last two films Deathly Hallows Part I and Part II debuted at $125 million and $169 million respectively. However, Fantastic Beasts is not based on a book, so there less urgency for the now older Potter fans to rush out opening weekend. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Doctor Strange, which opened with $85 million. Packed in 4144 theaters, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them could capture $88 million.

With a new heavyweight competitor, Doctor Strange [DRSTR] looks to drop down to $21 million and Trolls [TROLL] to $20 million for their third weekend.

Although Arrival [SOYLF] scored with critics, the sci-fi may be too smart for moviegoers. With mixed word of mouth, Arrival may drop more than 50% from its opening to $11 million. The holiday comedy Almost Christmas [MEYER] should be able to hold better than 50% for $8 million.

Hailee Steinfeld [HSTEI] toplines high school dramedy Edge of Seventeen [BESTI]. STX curiously moved the coming-of-age story to this crowded weekend, while its R-rating will keep out most high school students. Edge of Seventeen may take home $8 million from 1945 locations.

After a week of limited release in two 120FPS theaters, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk [BLLHW] expands to 1174 regular 24FPS theaters. The R-rated drama has earned mixed reviews, which may keep adult moviegoers away despite the Ang Lee [ALEE] pedigree. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk may end up around $6 million.

Miles Teller [MTELL] stars as real-life boxer Vinny Pazienza in Bleed for This [BLDFT]. The R-rated Open Road release doesn’t stand out from other recent boxing stories. Fighting in just 1549 theaters, Bleed for This could score $4 million.

A24 expands Moonlight [MONLT] wide into 650 theaters after racking up nearly $5 million during 4 weeks of limited release. The story of a gay black youth has earned rave reviews and Oscar buzz. Moonlight could eclipse $3 million.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): FBSTS, EREDM, DRSTR, TROLL, SOYLF, MEYER, HSTEI, BESTI, BLLHW, ALEE, MTELL, BLDFT, MONLT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 17, 2016 @ 02:31 PM        1845 views


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Overboard (OVERB) 100000 39.38 (+0.13)         Overboard (OVERB) 100000 39.38 (+0.13)         Green Book (GRNBK) 100000 9.58 (+1.24)         Green Book (GRNBK) 100000 9.58 (+1.24)         Star Wars: Episode IX (STAR9) 100000 597.59 (-0.50)         Painkiller Jane (PKJAN) 100000 20.11 (+1.70)         Uncut Gems (UNCUT) 1 7.51 (-0.49)         Painkiller Jane (PKJAN) 20000 20.11 (+1.70)         Uncut Gems (UNCUT) 20000 7.51 (-0.49)         Papillon (PAPIL) 15000 10.54 (-0.56)         Sinister Six (SINST) 15000 15.30 (-0.61)         Uncut Gems (UNCUT) 100000 7.51 (-0.49)         Antlers (ANTLR) 15000 16.60 (-0.66)         City of Lies aka Labyrinth (LABRN) 15000 24.96 (-1.34)         Doctor Sleep (DRSLP) 99999 32.16 (+0.29)         Good Boys (GBOYS) 30000 23.74 (+1.03)         Avengers: Infinity War $600M Blo (AVNG3.BW) 1918 8.26 (+0.21)         A Dog's Journey (ADOG2) 10000 35.54 (+2.56)         Painkiller Jane (PKJAN) 15000 20.11 (+1.70)         Ocean's 8 - Opening Weekend (OCEN4.OW) 15 40.71 (+0.71)         Booksmart (BKSMR) 15000 14.51 (+1.50)         Green Book (GRNBK) 15000 9.58 (+1.24)         Good Boys (GBOYS) 15000 23.74 (+1.03)         In the Heights (INHTS) 15000 20.84 (+0.74)         Hereditary H$15 Call (HERDT.CA) 20000 1.92 (-0.08)         Bloodshot (BLDSH) 50000 25.44 (+0.14)         Avengers: Infinity War $600M Blo (AVNG3.BW) 50 8.26 (+0.21)         Ford vs. Ferrari (FOVFE) 99999 22.35 (-0.91)         A Dog's Journey (ADOG2) 55000 35.54 (+2.56)         Uncut Gems (UNCUT) 100000 7.51 (-0.49)         The Personal History of David Co (PHODC) 99999 8.35 (+0.17)         Solo: A Star Wars Story H$175 Pu (SWAR2.PU) 15 4.28 (+0.01)         Sinister Six (SINST) 50000 15.30 (-0.61)         City of Lies aka Labyrinth (LABRN) 100000 24.96 (-1.34)         Solo: A Star Wars Story (SWAR2) 100000 341.21 (-1.33)         Ocean's 8 - Opening Weekend (OCEN4.OW) 100000 40.71 (+0.71)         Painkiller Jane (PKJAN) 50000 20.11 (+1.70)         The Happytime Murders (HPTMR) 28000 35.90 (-0.08)         Thandie Newton (TNEWT) 20000 28.91 (+0.08)         Doctor Sleep (DRSLP) 10000 32.16 (+0.29)         American Chaos (AMCHO) 100000 1.63 (-0.26)         Hereditary - Opening Weekend (HERDT.OW) 100000 14.90 (-0.10)         The Mule (TMULE) 25000 21.65 (+0.03)         Uncut Gems (UNCUT) 523 7.51 (-0.49)         In the Heights (INHTS) 50000 20.84 (+0.74)         The Predator (PRED4) 9999 82.93 (+0.11)         Uncut Gems (UNCUT) 100000 7.51 (-0.49)         Good Boys (GBOYS) 50000 23.74 (+1.03)         Booksmart (BKSMR) 100000 14.51 (+1.50)         Sinister Six (SINST) 50000 15.30 (-0.61)