Market Announcement: AwardOptions will begin trading Thursday at 9am Pacific.

SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Fantastic Box Office to be found



Warner Bros. heads back into the wizardry world of Harry Potter with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them [FBSTS]. J.K. Rowling has crafted a spin-off prequel set in 1920s New York City with all new characters. The PG-13 rated Fantastic Beasts features an adult cast led by Eddie Redmayne [EREDM], which makes sense since fans have grown up in the 15 years since the first Harry Potter opened to $90 million in 2001. The last two films Deathly Hallows Part I and Part II debuted at $125 million and $169 million respectively. However, Fantastic Beasts is not based on a book, so there less urgency for the now older Potter fans to rush out opening weekend. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Doctor Strange, which opened with $85 million. Packed in 4144 theaters, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them could capture $88 million.

With a new heavyweight competitor, Doctor Strange [DRSTR] looks to drop down to $21 million and Trolls [TROLL] to $20 million for their third weekend.

Although Arrival [SOYLF] scored with critics, the sci-fi may be too smart for moviegoers. With mixed word of mouth, Arrival may drop more than 50% from its opening to $11 million. The holiday comedy Almost Christmas [MEYER] should be able to hold better than 50% for $8 million.

Hailee Steinfeld [HSTEI] toplines high school dramedy Edge of Seventeen [BESTI]. STX curiously moved the coming-of-age story to this crowded weekend, while its R-rating will keep out most high school students. Edge of Seventeen may take home $8 million from 1945 locations.

After a week of limited release in two 120FPS theaters, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk [BLLHW] expands to 1174 regular 24FPS theaters. The R-rated drama has earned mixed reviews, which may keep adult moviegoers away despite the Ang Lee [ALEE] pedigree. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk may end up around $6 million.

Miles Teller [MTELL] stars as real-life boxer Vinny Pazienza in Bleed for This [BLDFT]. The R-rated Open Road release doesn’t stand out from other recent boxing stories. Fighting in just 1549 theaters, Bleed for This could score $4 million.

A24 expands Moonlight [MONLT] wide into 650 theaters after racking up nearly $5 million during 4 weeks of limited release. The story of a gay black youth has earned rave reviews and Oscar buzz. Moonlight could eclipse $3 million.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): FBSTS, EREDM, DRSTR, TROLL, SOYLF, MEYER, HSTEI, BESTI, BLLHW, ALEE, MTELL, BLDFT, MONLT

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 17, 2016 @ 02:31 PM        1949 views


Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!

Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 4998 55.96 (+0.20)         Weetzie Bat (WEETZ) 1 5.10 (-0.53)         ABC: Schooled (SCHOLD) 20000 11.47 (-0.03)         Weetzie Bat (WEETZ) 20000 5.10 (-0.53)         Molly aka Untitled Sally Potter (MOLY1) 1 6.10 (-0.46)         Molly aka Untitled Sally Potter (MOLY1) 20000 6.10 (-0.46)         Monopoly (MONOP) 15000 16.20 (+1.51)         The Kid Who Would Be King (KWWBK) 10000 29.74 (+1.43)         The Loud House (LOUDH) 10000 8.00 (+0.80)         Glass (GLASS) 100000 105.51 (-1.20)         Hayden Christensen (HCHRI) 20000 28.64 (+0.08)         The New Mutants (NMUTN) 99999 31.04 (-0.36)         Randall Park (RNPAR) 20000 118.38 (+0.57)         Fast Color (FASTC) 100000 1.94 (-0.10)         All-Star Weekend (ASWKN) 100000 1.81 (-0.01)         The Clovehitch Killer (CLVHT) 2222 1.29 (0.00)         Kitty Pryde (KITYP) 100000 23.98 (-0.30)         Saint Judy (SJUDY) 100000 1.95 (-0.33)         John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellu (WICK3) 100000 108.51 (0.00)         Downton Abbey (DWTAB) 85177 26.28 (+0.05)         Dan Fogler (DFOGL) 20000 82.53 (-0.40)         Dan Fogler (DFOGL) 20000 82.53 (-0.40)         Scary Stories To Tell In The Dar (SSTID) 100000 26.57 (-0.16)         Venom 2 (VENM2) 99999 144.63 (-5.51)         Missing Link (MSLNK) 25000 34.01 (+0.01)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 100000 17.51 (-0.49)         Rob Marshall (RMARS) 20000 117.91 (-1.14)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 100000 17.51 (-0.49)         Rob Marshall (RMARS) 20000 117.91 (-1.14)         Mapplethorpe (MPLTH) 100000 1.54 (+0.04)         Wonder Park (AMUSM) 100000 35.92 (-0.12)         Flarsky (FLRSK) 97901 36.02 (-0.06)         Miss Bala (MISSB) 35750 24.06 (-0.11)         Halloween sequel (HALW4) 99999 73.65 (-3.35)         Halloween sequel (HALW4) 100000 73.65 (-3.35)         The Kid Who Would Be King H$10 C (KWWBK.CA) 20000 2.86 (+0.06)         Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (GOTG3) 50000 110.94 (-0.62)         Mekhi Phifer (MPHIF) 20000 62.09 (+0.66)         Mekhi Phifer (MPHIF) 20000 62.09 (+0.66)         Serenity H$10 Put (SRNTY.PU) 20000 2.69 (-0.03)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 100000 17.51 (-0.49)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 100000 17.51 (-0.49)         Fight Night (FTNIT) 39922 28.56 (+3.31)         Alita: Battle Angel (ALITA) 100000 73.16 (+0.23)         Freakshift (FRKSF) 50000 1.74 (+0.02)         The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Par (LEGO2) 100000 177.24 (+1.48)         Freakshift (FRKSF) 99999 1.74 (+0.02)         Freakshift (FRKSF) 49999 1.74 (+0.02)         The Loud House (LOUDH) 15000 8.00 (+0.80)         Happiest Season (HAPIS) 72744 17.51 (-0.49)