SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Fantastic Box Office to be found

Warner Bros. heads back into the wizardry world of Harry Potter with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them [FBSTS]. J.K. Rowling has crafted a spin-off prequel set in 1920s New York City with all new characters. The PG-13 rated Fantastic Beasts features an adult cast led by Eddie Redmayne [EREDM], which makes sense since fans have grown up in the 15 years since the first Harry Potter opened to $90 million in 2001. The last two films Deathly Hallows Part I and Part II debuted at $125 million and $169 million respectively. However, Fantastic Beasts is not based on a book, so there less urgency for the now older Potter fans to rush out opening weekend. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Doctor Strange, which opened with $85 million. Packed in 4144 theaters, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them could capture $88 million.

With a new heavyweight competitor, Doctor Strange [DRSTR] looks to drop down to $21 million and Trolls [TROLL] to $20 million for their third weekend.

Although Arrival [SOYLF] scored with critics, the sci-fi may be too smart for moviegoers. With mixed word of mouth, Arrival may drop more than 50% from its opening to $11 million. The holiday comedy Almost Christmas [MEYER] should be able to hold better than 50% for $8 million.

Hailee Steinfeld [HSTEI] toplines high school dramedy Edge of Seventeen [BESTI]. STX curiously moved the coming-of-age story to this crowded weekend, while its R-rating will keep out most high school students. Edge of Seventeen may take home $8 million from 1945 locations.

After a week of limited release in two 120FPS theaters, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk [BLLHW] expands to 1174 regular 24FPS theaters. The R-rated drama has earned mixed reviews, which may keep adult moviegoers away despite the Ang Lee [ALEE] pedigree. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk may end up around $6 million.

Miles Teller [MTELL] stars as real-life boxer Vinny Pazienza in Bleed for This [BLDFT]. The R-rated Open Road release doesn’t stand out from other recent boxing stories. Fighting in just 1549 theaters, Bleed for This could score $4 million.

A24 expands Moonlight [MONLT] wide into 650 theaters after racking up nearly $5 million during 4 weeks of limited release. The story of a gay black youth has earned rave reviews and Oscar buzz. Moonlight could eclipse $3 million.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): FBSTS, EREDM, DRSTR, TROLL, SOYLF, MEYER, HSTEI, BESTI, BLLHW, ALEE, MTELL, BLDFT, MONLT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 17, 2016 @ 02:31 PM 2173 views

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Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 2500 319.63 (-1.39)         New York Will Eat You Alive aka (ZMBRO) 1 22.89 (+0.63)         No Time To Die (JB25) 999 149.60 (-1.07)         New York Will Eat You Alive aka (ZMBRO) 1 22.89 (+0.63)         Thor: Love and Thunder (THOR4) 3 209.00 (-7.16)         Thor: Love and Thunder (THOR4) 3 209.00 (-7.16)         A Quiet Place Part II (AQPL2) 5000 102.23 (-0.10)         Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 100 319.63 (-1.39)         He’s All That (HEALT) 2 26.48 (-0.02)         He’s All That (HEALT) 2 26.48 (-0.02)         King Richard (KRICH) 3 29.87 (-0.07)         Raya and the Last Dragon (RAYAD) 5000 99.74 (+0.11)         King Richard (KRICH) 3 29.87 (-0.07)         King Richard (KRICH) 3 29.87 (-0.07)         King Richard (KRICH) 3 29.87 (-0.07)         Cherry (CHRRY) 65000 0.70 (+0.07)         Under the Boardwalk (UNDBW) 3 30.98 (+0.02)         Monster Hunter (MONHT) 29295 27.24 (+1.75)         Under the Boardwalk (UNDBW) 3 30.98 (+0.02)         Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMNT3) 1 31.44 (-0.05)         Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMNT3) 1 31.44 (-0.05)         Godzilla vs. Kong (GOVKO) 25000 98.85 (-19.85)         The Kingsman 3 (KTSS4) 1 35.57 (-0.05)         The Kingsman 3 (KTSS4) 1 35.57 (-0.05)         The Tiger's Apprentice (TGRAP) 3 37.48 (-0.05)         The Tiger's Apprentice (TGRAP) 3 37.48 (-0.05)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 1 55.35 (-0.12)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 1 55.35 (-0.12)         Creed III (CREE3) 1 60.59 (-0.04)         Creed III (CREE3) 1 60.59 (-0.04)         Bad Boys 4 (BADB4) 1 90.31 (-0.69)         Bad Boys 4 (BADB4) 1 90.31 (-0.69)         Connected Nov 1 Put (TMVTM.RP) 25000 26.68 (+0.07)         Godzilla vs. Kong (GOVKO) 2400 98.85 (-19.85)         Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 500 148.57 (-4.80)         Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 1 148.57 (-4.80)         Scary Stories To Tell In The Dar (SSTI2) 25000 30.00 (0.00)         Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 1 148.57 (-4.80)         Connected (TMVTM) 150000 30.01 (-0.20)         Bad Boys 4 (BADB4) 1 90.31 (-0.69)         Bad Boys 4 (BADB4) 1 90.31 (-0.69)         Doctor Strange in the Multiverse (DRST2) 100 147.61 (-3.73)         Cobweb (COBWB) 2 17.75 (-0.08)         The Croods: A New Age (CROD2) 25000 38.72 (-1.87)         Cobweb (COBWB) 2 17.75 (-0.08)         Black Widow (BWDOW) 500 153.69 (-2.61)         Scream (SCRM5) 3 33.89 (-0.08)         The Croods: A New Age (CROD2) 147000 38.72 (-1.87)         Scream (SCRM5) 3 33.89 (-0.08)         Black Panther II (BPNT2) 200 266.56 (-2.10)