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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3644 views

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Playdate (PLYDT) 85078 16.42 (+1.42)          Abigail (ABGAL) 25000 49.73 (-4.84)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 41620 13.34 (-1.66)          Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 9990 23.85 (-0.02)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 41620 13.34 (-1.66)          Joker: Folie Ă  Deux (JOKE2) 216 274.10 (-0.31)          Spy x Family Code: White (SPYFM) 40000 20.27 (-0.75)          Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F (BHCP4) 150000 0.06 (+0.01)          Winner (WINNR) 40000 2.68 (-0.01)          Wicked (WICKD) 50000 160.96 (-0.11)          Spellbound (SPLBN) 150000 1.77 (-0.01)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 10000 67.06 (+0.08)          We All Die Young (WADY) 20000 0.21 (-0.01)          Wardriver (WARDR) 20000 0.54 (0.00)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 10000 67.06 (+0.08)          Venom: The Last Dance aka Venom (VENM3) 50000 171.40 (-0.55)          Untitled Martin McDonagh Project (UMAMC) 20000 2.22 (+0.03)          Dog Man (DOGM1) 1 30.80 (-0.05)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 50000 16.95 (0.00)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 149500 16.87 (+1.12)          Undercover (UNDCV) 20000 1.42 (-0.01)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 150000 16.87 (+1.12)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 150000 94.24 (+0.92)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 150000 94.24 (+0.92)          The Watchers (WATCS) 50000 34.89 (-0.14)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 150000 16.87 (+1.12)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 150000 16.87 (+1.12)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 25000 135.49 (+1.62)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 9999 67.06 (+0.08)          Dog Man (DOGM1) 5000 30.80 (-0.05)          Alien: Romulus (ALIE5) 1 63.62 (+0.06)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 400 16.87 (+1.12)          Playdate (PLYDT) 500 16.42 (+1.42)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.42 (+1.42)          With Love (WOLOV) 500 25.97 (+1.46)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 100 16.87 (+1.12)          Armor Wars (ARMWR) 199 67.06 (+0.08)          Hard Miles (HRDML) 150000 1.09 (-0.06)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 10000 135.49 (+1.62)          Christine (CRSTN) 50000 36.84 (-0.14)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 4.29 (+1.01)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 4.29 (+1.01)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.42 (+1.42)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 150000 0.08 (-0.06)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 15000 4.29 (+1.01)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 150000 4.44 (+0.06)          Untitled Martin McDonagh Project (UMAMC) 150000 2.22 (+0.03)          Untitled Martin McDonagh Project (UMAMC) 150000 2.22 (+0.03)          Sing 3 (SING3) 16232 98.89 (+0.51)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 19.08 (-2.04)