SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Avatar goes for eight in a row.



Two new contenders will enter the multiplex against the all-time box office champion Avatar [HWAVA].  However, neither looks to have the buzz to prevail over the nine times Oscar-nominated sci-fi epic.  Even with the Super Bowl on Sunday, Avatar probably won’t decline more than 20% to around $25 million, which should be enough to win for the eighth consecutive weekend.

The romance Dear John [DEARJ] has the best chance to dethrone Avatar this week.  The tearjerker is aimed at young women, the demographic most uninterested in football’s biggest weekend.  Rising stars Amanada Seyfried [ASEYF] and Channing Tatum [CTATU] play a couple in a long-distance relationship based on the novel by Nicholas Sparks.  With a built-in fanbase, the PG-13 rated drama could gain upwards of $18 million from 2969 locations. 

Last Super Bowl weekend, director Pierre Morel [PMORE] scored a breakout hit with Taken. Lionsgate hopes to replicate that success with his new film From Paris with Love [FPWLV]. However, the marketing has yet to find an unique hook other than the usual action set pieces and the starpower of John Travolta [JTRAV] and Jonathan Rhys Meyers [JRMEY]. Opening in 2722 theaters, From Paris with Love could take home $15 million.

The R-rated thriller Edge of Darkness [EDRKN] should finish fourth with around $9 million for its sophomore frame, while the romantic comedy When in Rome [WROME] gets a second date of about $7 million.

Crazy Heart [CRZHT] expands into 819 theaters for a wide release on the strength of its double nominations for stars Jeff Bridges [JBRID] and Maggie Gyllenhaal [MGYLL].   The Fox Searchlight drama could tug out $5 million from older moviegoers. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): HWAVA, DEARJ, ASEYF, CTATU, PMORE, FPWLV, JTRAV, JRMEY, EDRKN, WROME, CRZHT, JBRID, MGYLL

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 4, 2010 @ 05:06 PM        2606 views


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Ophelia (OPHEL) 44 1.53 (-0.07)         Operation Finale (OPFIN) 8 17.17 (-0.12)         Stuck (STUC) 100000 2.00 (0.00)         The Nutcracker And The Four Real (NUTFR) 100000 105.84 (-0.37)         Bill & Ted Face the Music (BILL3) 4452 22.73 (0.00)         Overcomer (OVRCM) 100000 20.00 (0.00)         Operation Finale (OPFIN) 7 17.17 (-0.12)         Overnight (ON42S) 275 4.58 (-0.02)         Won't You Be My Neighbor? (WYBMN) 99999 7.57 (+0.27)         The Old Man and the Gun (OMATG) 8 13.32 (-0.10)         The One and Only Ivan (OIVAN) 4 47.37 (-0.15)         Hotel Artemis (ARTMS) 100000 8.56 (-0.07)         Official Secrets (OFSEC) 22 5.58 (-0.12)         The First Purge (PURG4) 23000 52.86 (-1.70)         The Odyssey (ODYSY) 35 5.76 (+0.20)         Three Little Words (3LWRD) 100000 0.33 (-0.07)         Doctor Strange 2 (DRST2) 56980 122.52 (-0.38)         Now You See Me 3 (NYSM3) 12 12.86 (-0.15)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 5500 159.75 (-20.17)         The Nutcracker And The Four Real (NUTFR) 2 105.84 (-0.37)         Beverly Hills Cop (BHCP4) 100000 1.31 (-0.05)         Nightwing (NTWNG) 4 35.01 (-0.12)         Popeye (POPEY) 100000 1.09 (-0.03)         The Intruder aka Motivated Selle (NTRDR) 13 21.17 (+0.29)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 100000 159.75 (-20.17)         Mean Moms (MMOMS) 100000 0.71 (-0.05)         The Nightingale (NTNGL) 50 1.45 (+0.07)         Mean Moms (MMOMS) 100000 0.71 (-0.05)         First Reformed (FRFRM) 100000 2.69 (+0.06)         Ghost Recon (GRCON) 100000 0.85 (-0.02)         Aladdin (ALADN) 50000 274.24 (-0.49)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 100000 159.75 (-20.17)         Flash Gordon (FLSHG) 100000 1.53 (+0.09)         The Hustle aka Nasty Women (NSTYW) 8 23.95 (-0.19)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 100000 159.75 (-20.17)         A Star Wars Story 3 (SWAR3) 9999 159.75 (-20.17)         Nosferatu (NOSFR) 135 9.53 (-0.04)         Peter Rabbit 2 (PRAB2) 100000 59.21 (-1.49)         The Rider (TRIDR) 100000 1.97 (-0.06)         Doctor Strange 2 (DRST2) 43020 122.52 (-0.38)         Medusa (MEDUS) 100000 1.29 (-0.02)         The New Mutants (NMUTN) 65 64.73 (-0.06)         Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - (JURA5.OW) 50000 142.59 (-5.10)         The Chronicles of Narnia: The Si (NARN4) 100000 11.56 (-0.10)         Avatar 2 (AVAT2) 100000 339.17 (+4.57)         Three Little Words (3LWRD) 100000 0.33 (-0.07)         The Nightingale - MacLaren (NITNG) 155 7.92 (+0.04)         Incredibles 2 (NCRD2) 10000 448.16 (+4.47)         Her Smell (HERSM) 100000 3.48 (-0.52)         Rocketman (RCKTM) 100000 15.04 (+0.78)