SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: XXX to Split the box office



Two film icons attempt a comeback this weekend as writer-director M. Night Shyamalan [MNSHY] takes on Vin Diesel’s [VDIES] return as Xander Cage after 15 years. The head to head battle for box office supremacy appears close, but Split [SPLIT] may pull ahead. Shyamalan’s PG-13 rated thriller stars James McAvoy [JMCAV] as a man with 23 personalities. Universal’s marketing has effectively set up the premise to hook in moviegoers. The film has a twist ending that apparently hue closer on the Shyamalan scale to his breakout The Sixth Sense than the horrible The Happening. Advance ticket sales are pacing ahead of Shyamalan’s last film The Visit, which opened with $25.4 million in September 2015. Arriving in 3037 theaters, Split could nab $26 million.

In addition to Diesel, XXX: The Return of Xander Cage [XXX3] boasts an all-star cast of action stars like Donnie Yen [DYEN] and Tony Jaa [TJAA]. However, that apparently wasn’t not enough for Paramount, which has decided to give away a cameo from the star of the second XXX. While Diesel’s XXX opened to $45.5 million in 2002, Ice Cube’s XXX: State of the Union managed just $12.7 million in 2005. Advance ticket sales are ahead of London Has Fallen, which debuted with $21.6 million. Attacking 3651 theaters, XXX: The Return of Xander Cage could bring in $24 million.

The crowd-pleasing Hidden Figures [HIDNF] will continue to hold strong and cross the $80 million milestone with another $12 million.

Patriots Day [PATSD] underperformed its strong pedigree and may drop 50% in its second wide weekend to $6.0 million. Though unlikely to recover its huge budget, Monster Trucks [MNTRC] did find an audience. The family film could decline 45% in its sophomore outing to $6.0 million.

Although The Bye Bye Man [BYBYM] opened better than expected, the horror film faces direct competition from Split. A 60% drop would be about $5.5 million.

Michael Keaton [MKEAT] stars as The Founder [FONDR] of the MacDonald's franchise. The PG-13 rated drama has been a Weinstein Co. afterthought this award season. Serving 1115 theaters, The Founder may flip $4 million.

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone [TROGS] targets Christian moviegoers in 887 theaters and could deliver $1 million.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): MNSHY, VDIES, SPLIT, JMCAV, XXX3, DYEN, TJAA, HIDNF, PATSD, MNTRC, BYBYM, MKEAT, FONDR, TROGS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, January 19, 2017 @ 04:27 PM        2173 views


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