SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Toy Story 3

This weekend Pixar delivers its annual instant classic animated feature and this year Pixar goes back to the franchise that started it all.  After enduring a very public battle between Disney and Pixar over the rights to produce the sequel, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] arrives more than a decade behind the previous installment Toy Story 2.  Thankfully, the two companies came together to the relief of everyone.  Toy Story 3 finds Woody, Buzz and the rest of Andy’s toys dropped off at a day care center where they encounter new characters while trying to find their way home.  As expected, reviews have been outstanding on the G-rated film that wraps up the trilogy.  The series has broad demographic appeal from everyone who has grown up with the beloved characters.   Opening 4028 theaters with the added boost of 3D screens, Toy Story 3 could launch to $110 million and beyond.

Last weekend’s big winner The Karate Kid [KFKID] should more than hold its own against the new competition.  Moviegoers have responded overwhelmingly positive to the remake. The Karate Kid could wear down just 30% from its debut and finish second at around $37 million.

On the other hand, the feature adaptation of The A-Team [ATEAM] was met with a lukewarm reception.  The male-oriented actioner is likely to fall close to 50% to $13 million for its second outing. 

The weekend’s other new wide release is the western Jonah Hex [JOHEX] based on a comic you have never heard of.  Josh Brolin [JBROL] stars as an avenging cowboy with supernatural powers.  Megan Fox [MEFOX] co-star in the PG-13 rated film to up its appeal with young males.  Even though the marketing campaign had a late start, Warner Bros. has advertised heavily on sporting events.  Unfortunately, advance buzz has been low and mostly negative.  Jonah Hex may have to settle for a score around $10 million from 2825 theaters.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TOYS3, KFKID, ATEAM, JOHEX, JBROL, MEFOX

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 17, 2010 @ 03:01 PM 2677 views

Recent Comments

bigbrain28
Friday, June 18 at 12:10 PM Pacific
I disagree, and predict fall-off for KFKID to be closer to 60%
Afammojoe
Friday, June 18 at 16:04 PM Pacific
jonah hex will do 25-30



Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 150000 15.46 (+1.49)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 150000 15.46 (+1.49)          Abigail (ABGAL) 10000 48.64 (-0.99)          The Ballad of Wallis Island (TBOWI) 2311 6.12 (+0.72)          Brian Tyree Henry (BTHEN) 25000 137.11 (-0.33)          Tarot H$15 Call (HRSCP.CA) 25000 1.42 (-0.04)          Civil War (CVLWR) 50000 61.62 (-0.15)          Tarot - Opening Weekend (HRSCP.OW) 100000 13.36 (+0.05)          Tarot H$15 Call (HRSCP.CA) 25000 1.42 (-0.04)          Tarot - Opening Weekend (HRSCP.OW) 100000 13.36 (+0.05)          The Instigators (NSTGT) 5600 36.31 (0.00)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 17.46 (+0.80)          Possum Trot (PSMTR) 11000 15.54 (-0.02)          Maggie Gyllenhaal (MGYLL) 25000 18.67 (+0.10)          MaXXXine (XTW3) 11000 10.58 (-0.12)          Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 25000 70.43 (-0.45)          The Instigators (NSTGT) 4400 36.31 (0.00)          Woody Harrelson (WHARR) 20000 70.43 (-0.45)          Channing Tatum (CTATU) 25000 73.39 (-0.45)          Channing Tatum (CTATU) 20000 73.39 (-0.45)          Channing Tatum (CTATU) 20000 73.39 (-0.45)          National Anthem (NANTM) 1000 0.61 (+0.05)          Outcome (OUTCM) 4999 21.08 (-0.04)          Longlegs (LNLEG) 11000 9.81 (-0.02)          National Anthem (NANTM) 10000 0.61 (+0.05)          Hot Wheels (HOTWH) 4999 17.60 (+0.04)          Avengers 5 (AVNG5) 70000 348.25 (+0.60)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 25000 24.34 (-0.20)          Sing Sing (SINGS) 21000 2.75 (0.00)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 24999 20.33 (+0.68)          Terrifier 3 (TERF3) 30000 9.31 (-0.03)          The Instigators (NSTGT) 8000 36.31 (0.00)          In the Grey aka Untitled Guy Rit (NGREY) 150000 32.54 (-0.07)          Guy Ritchie (GRITC) 25000 51.27 (-0.55)          Guy Ritchie (GRITC) 20000 51.27 (-0.55)          Didi (DIDI) 79000 3.77 (+0.04)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 19.06 (-0.35)          The Instigators (NSTGT) 32000 36.31 (0.00)          Monkey Man (MNKYM) 150000 23.50 (+0.03)          The Ballad of Wallis Island (TBOWI) 500 6.12 (+0.72)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 500 15.46 (+1.49)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 20000 37.69 (-0.04)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 500 15.24 (+1.90)          Fly Me to the Moon (PARTM) 10000 65.92 (+0.06)          Queer (QUEER) 150000 6.01 (-0.03)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 150000 20.99 (-0.08)          Michael (MJACK) 39000 62.53 (+0.02)          Blitz (BLTZ) 150000 2.55 (-0.03)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 150000 32.41 (-0.10)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 150000 4.52 (+0.05)