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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3404 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



The Ballad of Wallis Island (TBOWI) 19200 5.59 (-0.22)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 16.37 (+1.37)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 52.79 (-1.78)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 52.79 (-1.78)          Challengers - Opening Weekend (CHALN.OW) 6000 11.73 (-0.41)          Gladiator II aka Gladiator 2 (GLAD2) 10000 169.84 (-0.03)          Challengers - Opening Weekend (CHALN.OW) 3200 11.73 (-0.41)          Josh Hartnett (JHART) 25000 56.77 (+0.16)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 15.00 (0.00)          Naruto (NARUT) 12500 42.77 (0.00)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.CA) 25000 0.35 (-0.12)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 10000 132.00 (-1.83)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 6000 132.00 (-1.83)          Unsung Heroes - Opening Weekend (UNSUN.OW) 10800 10.01 (+0.18)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 15.00 (0.00)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 10000 63.09 (-0.21)          Ballerina (BLRNA) 25000 70.11 (+0.12)          Playdate (PLYDT) 5 15.00 (0.00)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 16.37 (+1.37)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 12500 39.71 (-2.36)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 49999 4.37 (+0.03)          The Fall Guy H$50 Put (FALGY.PU) 1000 2.55 (+0.02)          Abigail H$25 Call (ABGAL.CA) 25000 0.21 (-0.19)          Parachute (PRCHU) 2994 0.06 (0.00)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 5 30.56 (+0.27)          Parachute (PRCHU) 2494 0.06 (0.00)          Spy x Family Code: White (SPYFM) 60000 21.43 (+0.41)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 15.00 (0.00)          Abigail H$25 Put (ABGAL.PU) 25000 5.23 (+0.20)          Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (BJON4) 80000 9.45 (+0.55)          The First Omen (OMEN1) 9998 19.69 (+0.03)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 50000 30.56 (+0.27)          Abigail H$25 Call (ABGAL.CA) 25000 0.21 (-0.19)          The First Omen (OMEN1) 10009 19.69 (+0.03)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.CA) 25000 0.35 (-0.12)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 20.40 (+1.45)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.OW) 100000 11.14 (-0.09)          The Old Oak (OLOAK) 984 0.12 (0.00)          Brendan Gleeson (BGLEE) 5000 30.59 (+0.02)          The Old Oak (OLOAK) 484 0.12 (0.00)          The Last Adventures Of Constance (CVERT) 30000 1.82 (-0.01)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 50000 39.71 (-2.36)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 30000 1.45 (-0.06)          The Beast (LBETE) 979 0.49 (0.00)          Letitia Wright (LWRIG) 25000 131.77 (-0.66)          Beautiful (BUTIF) 30000 13.22 (-0.06)          Housekeeping for Beginners (HKFBG) 113 0.57 (+0.02)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.PU) 25000 4.53 (+0.10)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.OW) 100000 11.14 (-0.09)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.PU) 25000 4.53 (+0.10)