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Whisper Numbers: Rio and Scream 4 battle for number one.



After the light showing from last week’s four releases, business looks to pick up this weekend with two potential blockbusters in the animated Rio [RIO] and the horror sequel Scream 4 [SCRM4].  Both have a shot at the top spot, though the wider demographic appeal of the G-rated Rio should prevail over its R-rated competition.  A bird out of its cage story set in Brazil,  Rio comes from Blue Sky, the animation studio behind the successful Ice Age franchise. Fox’s marketing has been ubiquitous, which should ensure a healthy turnout from moviegoers of all ages.  Already a hit overseas where it opened last weekend, Rio could roost stateside with $46 million from 3826 theaters.

Returning 11 years after the end of the Scream trilogy, Scream 4 brings back Neve Campbell [NCAMP], David Arquette [DARQU] and Courtney Cox [COCOX] while offering a new generation of fresh meat for the latest Ghostface killer(s). The last film Scream 3 opened to $34.7 million in 2000. The latest chapter would need to appeal to an audience too young to have seen the trilogy in theaters. The Friday the 13th remake slashed $40.6 million while the Nightmare on Elm Street remake sliced $32.9 million. The latest Scream chapter should be in the same territory judging by the buzz from its fans. Opening in 3305 theaters, Scream 4 may have a stab at $38 million.

After two weeks at the top, Hop [IHOP] looks to face direct competition from Rio. The Easter-themed film should drop to about $11 million.

The thriller Hanna [HANA1] ended up finishing best amongst the four new releases. With mixed word of mouth, Hanna could decline around 45% to $7 million.

Moviegoers were apathetic about Arthur [ATHUR] in its debut, so a 50% drop would net $6 million. The female target audience should keep Soul Surfer [SOSRF] afloat in its second weekend at about $5.5 million.

Roadside Attraction is sending the historical drama The Conspirator [CNSPR] out in 707 theaters. The only interested demographic of older adult males is unlikely to rush out opening weekend. The Conspirator may struggle to break $2 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): RIO, SCRM4, NCAMP, DARQU, COCOX, IHOP, HANA1, ATHUR, SOSRF, CNSPR

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 04:16 PM        4259 views


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