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Whisper Numbers: Will Super 8 capture first place?



Wedged in a weekend between the openings of two big-budgeted superhero films is an earnst, throwback film Super 8 [SUPR8] with a moderate budget and no stars in the cast. The PG-13 rated film set in 1979 is director J.J. Abrams’ [JABRA] homage to early films by Steven Spielberg such as Close Encounters of the Third Kind and E.T.. The first teaser was released a year ago before the film was even in production. However, Paramount’s marketing campaign has remained vague in order to shroud the story in a veil of secrecy. Unfortunately, that low-key approach has resulted in soft tracking that indicate low interest from today’s youthful moviegoers. Nostalgic, older moviegoers will wait to gauge the reviews instead of rushing out opening weekend. Hoping to build up some last minute buzz, Paramount enlisted Twitter to promote Thursday sneak previews in about 300 theaters. Breaking into 3379 theaters, Super 8 could capture about $32 million for ifrs place.

The relaunch of the mutant superhero franchise X-Men: First Class [XMEN4] came in at the low end of expectations, but earned great reviews and word of mouth. With the new openers not looking strong, X-Men: First Class should soften its decay to around 50% for a $27 million second weekend.

The comedy sequel The Hangover Part II [HNOV2] should clear around $16 million, while the animated Kung Fu Panda 2 [PAND2] looks to punch out $14 million, both for their third weekend at the box office.

Based on the kids’ book series, Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer [JUDYM] hopes to attract the whole family though it may have to settle for just the girls and their moms. Last year’s Ramona and Beezus opened to $7.8 million despite having Selena Gomez. Judy Moody is likely headed for less at around $7 million from 2524 theaters.

After collecting $7.8 million in three weeks of limited release, Midnight in Paris [MIDNP] expands wide into 944 theaters. The Woody Allen [WALLE] comedy is enjoying some of the best reviews and buzz of his recent films.  Adult moviegoers could bring Midnight in Paris to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): SUPR8, JABRA, XMEN4, HNOV2, PAND2, JUDYM, MIDNP, WALLE

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 9, 2011 @ 03:30 PM        4967 views


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