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Posted below, but felt it would interesting enough to mention alone: MTC has a 2012 accuracy rate of about 76%. RS at 57%.

Posted by: ShawnMR on May 14, 16:55

This obviously includes some rounding on RS's numbers, but I try to compensate as reasonably as possible.  For examples:

"low 40s" = 42
"mid 20s" = 25
"low 20s" = 22
"low double digits" = 11
"mid teens" = 16
"high teens" = 18
"mid to high single digits" = 7
"mid single digits" = 5
"low single digits" = 3 

Etc.

Posted below, but felt it would interesting enough to mention alone: MTC has a 2012 accuracy rate of about 76%. RS at 57%. ShawnMR May 14, 16:55

I'm not totally sure what the %'s mean. can you tell me the avg variance. Thanks for the info! jwammo May 14, 17:03

Not sure on the dollar figure, but my calculations are based on these examples: ShawnMR May 14, 17:16

you are calculating the average percentage error. correctly, I might add. Cheers. {nm} jwammo May 14, 17:31

uh what? alfpaulytd2012 May 14, 17:06

Please see Roger's and my replies just a couple of posts down. {nm} ShawnMR May 14, 17:20

If mid-20s is 25 and mid-single digit is 5, then mid-teens should be 15. {nm} Antibody May 14, 17:10

I define "teens" as 13-19, not 11-20 (which I would think to be "mid-double digits"). :) {nm} ShawnMR May 14, 17:12

Hit enter too soon: 11-20 where 15 be "mid-double digits" {nm} ShawnMR May 14, 17:13

Wouldn't mid-double digits be between 10-99? Wink {nm} Jay_Beezy May 14, 19:56

LOL! Using RS 2012 accuracy %, Battleship could open as high as 86M or as low as 24M. {nm} thatpj May 14, 17:10

This is from using the formula 1 - ABS(Predicted Weekend - Actual Weekend)/Actual Weekend. RogerMore May 14, 17:15

Hmmm... supposed to go under alfpaul's post {nm} RogerMore May 14, 17:15

Thx for the context at least but still confused alfpaulytd2012 May 14, 17:20

Agreed - it's not perfect, but it is easy to understand and easy to verify, which are advantages. {nm} RogerMore May 14, 17:31

Agreed. My application today was simply to find a min-max for Battleship based on MTC's performance so far this year. ShawnMR May 14, 17:33

Yes. And I'll admit there are probably better measurements and/or terminology that can be used here. I'm just using that formula in my ShawnMR May 14, 17:19

Gotcha alfpaulytd2012 May 14, 17:24

So... the clarify... MTCs 27 "should" equate to a $35.53 weekend???? {nm} dioneta May 14, 22:54

*to clarify... I am asking to make sure I understand your position.. :) {nm} dioneta May 14, 22:57





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Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 19.34 (-0.66)          Cabrini (CABRI) 50000 20.05 (-0.08)          Martin Freeman (MAFRE) 25000 113.16 (+0.33)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 19.34 (-0.66)          The Opening Weekend Fund (OPENR) 1 97.88 (-0.10)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 150000 156.03 (+2.20)          Cabrini (CABRI) 1 20.05 (-0.08)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.20 (-0.03)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.20 (-0.03)          Cabrini (CABRI) 99999 20.05 (-0.08)          Tank Girl (TANKG) 150000 13.49 (+0.20)          Tank Girl (TANKG) 100000 13.49 (+0.20)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 59.55 (+1.20)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.12 (-0.26)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 59.55 (+1.20)          A Complete Unknown aka Going Ele (GOELC) 400 17.58 (+0.50)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 150000 156.03 (+2.20)          Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (BEET2) 900 158.03 (-0.77)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 45.75 (-0.15)          The First Omen - Opening Weekend (OMEN1.OW) 100000 12.16 (0.00)          The First Omen H$10 Put (OMEN1.PU) 25000 1.55 (0.00)          IF (IMGNF) 5000 151.82 (-0.33)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 1 2.12 (-0.26)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.20 (-0.03)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 100000 21.70 (+0.21)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.CA) 1 3.07 (+0.20)          Civil War H$20 Call (CVLWR.CA) 25000 2.60 (+0.04)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 21.24 (+1.54)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 1 59.55 (+1.20)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 150000 17.97 (+1.26)          Johnny Depp (JDEPP) 5 85.79 (0.00)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 1 156.03 (+2.20)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 5000 136.11 (-0.01)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 122 64.79 (+0.19)          Accidental Texan (ACTEX) 150000 1.52 (+0.02)          Club Zero (CLUBZ) 150000 0.21 (+0.01)          Abigail (ABGAL) 15000 59.40 (-0.84)          Abigail (ABGAL) 5000 59.40 (-0.84)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 3.21 (0.00)          Civil War (CVLWR) 5000 63.97 (0.00)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 84996 23.69 (+0.25)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 150000 23.69 (+0.25)          Alessandro Nivola (ANIVO) 24999 5.86 (-0.04)          Christopher Abbott (CABBO) 24999 4.26 (-0.04)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 10000 59.55 (+1.20)          Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey (WTPB2) 150000 2.02 (-0.05)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 500 194.27 (-0.16)          The First Omen H$10 Call (OMEN1.CA) 25000 2.95 (+0.01)          Arthur the King (ARTKN) 150000 22.45 (0.00)          Tank Girl (TANKG) 150000 13.49 (+0.20)