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I would not put much weight on the relative strength of PROME's international start comparing to SWHTM's

Posted by: xiayun on Jun 03, 20:22

Ridley Scott has a stronger international following, as his last two summer films both saw a much bigger chunk of return coming from foreign territories: Robin Hood - 67.3%; Kingdom of Heaven - 77.6%. Yes, those two films were about medieval time, a more popular topic in Europe than in the U.S., but his other three recent films also saw more gross from international front. Combined, international territories accounted for 65.5% of his past five films' total gross.

On the other hand, SWHTM feels closer to The Hunger Games (61.7% of gross so far comes from the U.S.) and the first Twilight film (49.1%), where the international audience will only become a lot more significant in the sequels.

Then there is the 3D factor, which still helps a film's international gross greatly even though the fevor has died down for a while now domestically.

At the moment, I have a similar prediction as A4J has, although I'm leaning more toward lower rather than higher. A sub-$50m start would not surprise. I'm pretty confident MADG3 will win the weekend as well as the total.

I would not put much weight on the relative strength of PROME's international start comparing to SWHTM's xiayun Jun 03, 20:22

I can rest easy now. Thanks for your analysis, as always. {nm} Tanker Jun 03, 20:32

For a sub-$50M start that would normally mean that Saturday's gross would drop from Friday's, as well as a muted Friday start, wouldn't it? {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Jun 03, 21:09

A Fri-to-Sat drop is very likely given the release date, R-rating, and the sci-fi genre; District 9 dropped 10.9% even with its great WOM xiayun Jun 03, 21:27

Wow, I hadn't really taken that into consideration before. It is entirely possible that it could go sub-$50M. accountant_4_Jesus Jun 03, 21:43

If I were trying to make a case for a 70M opening... second gary Jun 03, 21:31

second gary, I'm with you. Might even say 80+ {nm} Ryan_Stewart Jun 03, 21:52

I'm saying there is limited evidence for a 70M opening, and there are real problems in arguing for 70M. I am still... second gary Jun 04, 07:00

Whoever is Ryan Stewart? Also, PROME is no Star Trek. That one had likeable, youthful characters. PROME is a mess, closer to a turd, and not {nm} Facto Jun 03, 21:58

in the least good-spirited. That Lost writer is nothing like JJ Abrams - no, he's a joke, someone who should've never been hired. Sadly. {nm} Facto Jun 03, 22:03

Who should they have hired? You? Did I miss something or are there a bunch of working studio heads on this site? {nm} Ryan_Stewart Jun 03, 22:08

They could have hired someone with actual skills, instead of this irreverent hipster punk (who is hyper-active on twitter). Poor choice. {nm} Facto Jun 03, 22:30