Movies

DL: TREK2 $25-27 Fri / $80-88 wknd Oleg Max May 17, 13:24

TREK1 had 2.8 IM, she is suggesting 3.2-3.25 IM... Oleg Max May 17, 13:26

even if it had a 27M Friday and a 3 IM (for 81M), that would still have it at 232.2 adjust lobogotti May 17, 13:30

+1 {nm} Oleg Max May 17, 13:31

In a world where a $27M Fri and $88M 3-day happens (her current headline, a multiple of 3.26), adjust would be 251. {nm} KalElFan May 17, 13:45

Alas, we don't live in such a world. :-) However, we do live in one where managing expectations means easing into a disappointment. {nm} KalElFan May 17, 13:53

STAR2 opened on Thu and then did 80/24.4 = 3.28IM 11 years ago. {nm} Antibody May 17, 14:00

STAR3 opened on Thu and then did 108.4/33.5 = 3.24IM 8 years ago. Antibody May 17, 14:02

if it came in at 26M Fri w/ a 3.25 IM it still adjusts to 241, 25M = 233, 27M = 250.5 lobogotti May 17, 14:12

I like the STAR2 precedent because it had Spider-Man Wk 3 as competition. No GATSB-level movie though. Maybe 3+ is possible for TREK2. {nm} KalElFan May 17, 14:44

BTC's #'s from yesterday (14/28.5/26/16.5) still look like the most likely outcome to me. Maybe a bit less steep on Sunday {nm} whitewalls May 17, 14:37

maybe chop a couple mil of Friday and move them to Sat {nm} whitewalls May 17, 14:37

that's 80-88M for the 4day, correct? can't see the 3day having better than a 3.0 multiplier lobogotti May 17, 13:27

prediction of $100M for the first four days... also "Today's grosses are almost double Thursday's" - Thursday was 11.5... "almost" {nm} Oleg Max May 17, 13:29

almost double, would mean 1.9 times = 11.5 * 1.9 = 21.85... {nm} Oleg Max May 17, 13:30

yeah, her math is a tad bit off.... nothing new lobogotti May 17, 13:31

Y'know, I feel TREK2 will pick things up at the wkend. I really believe TREK2 pulls 90M fri-sun, people will see this. 105-112M four days. {nm} eallensbp May 17, 13:35

IMO it needs to have a 30-32M Fri to see those numbers. I wouldn't count it out, but if it comes in on the low 25M, no deal lobogotti May 17, 13:38

Like the possibility of a Sat uptick, and ditto for Sun. {nm} eallensbp May 17, 13:41

Keep in mind, TREK2's Saturday/Sunday uptick doesn't have to be tremendous for a 100M+ four day to happen. {nm} eallensbp May 17, 13:44

Sat might get anywhere from a 1 to 5% uptick from the Fri total, Sun will definitely not uptick lobogotti May 17, 13:45

You REALLY don't think TREK2 could uptick Sunday? Remember, this IS TREK2 we're talking about! I believe the upticks are definitely possible {nm} eallensbp May 17, 13:50

even if it was Memorial Day weekend Sun wouldn't get an uptick from Sat, IMO. Sun will probably drop a min 20% off Sat lobogotti May 17, 13:53

I can see that, but I like TREK2 for 90M+ thru Sun regardless, even as I admit that's looking less and less like a possibility. {nm} eallensbp May 17, 14:01

HSX trivia: Number of wide releases since HSX began: 2000+. Number of these that had a Sunday uptick on opening weekend: 24 RogerMore May 17, 15:34

nice research there! {nm} daveart May 17, 16:07

GARUL and JUMPB had Mother's Day on Sunday. {nm} Antibody May 17, 17:32

Agreed. Always thought Sat uptick was possibility from Thurs OD. {nm} thatpj May 17, 14:13

Yeah, a $30M-$32M Fri might do it, but "almost double" even 13.4 would be under 26.8. So the B.O. would have to explode tonight. {nm} KalElFan May 17, 13:58

+1 lobogotti May 17, 14:00

90 + 13.5 = 103.5, where is 105-112 coming from? {nm} Oleg Max May 17, 13:40

You're right Oleg, I should have added a + to my 90M figure, which could bring it over the 105 mark for 4 days. {nm} eallensbp May 17, 13:53

Her lowest multiple is 80/27=2.96, higher than TREK1's 2.8. Even with that it adjusts at (80*2.7)+13.5=229.5. {nm} KalElFan May 17, 13:37

yeah, her garbage math is always certainly "fun" to dissect lobogotti May 17, 13:40

W/Thu opening could take away some of the front-loading. {nm} Antibody May 17, 13:48

any cinema score updates? is this one pulling A or better? lobogotti May 17, 13:50

See my V post at May 17, 12:00. {nm} Antibody May 17, 13:53

doh! sorry. that's encouraging, but if it pulls a 3.0+ IM I'll be impressed. not saying it can't by any means. lobogotti May 17, 13:56

Wow! That's one hell of a recovery. Still not as amazing as i would have liked though. {nm} thatpj May 17, 14:01

maybe should use a different poster in her article...lol {nm} tealfan May 17, 14:27

*Nikki {nm} tealfan May 17, 14:28