HSX Forum

Movies

Bummer

Posted by: johnnyb588 on Jul 15, 10:36 in response to diamondman56's post Ha ha... definite short based on OW price.

Bummer, I couldn't get out of my OW in time.  I think it's not going down much from where it is, as I actually expect a strong multiplier (my guess is 14x), but I don't think it's going to make more than $50.  Can't win them all, I guess.

GHST3 - $3.4m Thursday RollingThunder Jul 15, 07:47

Ha ha... definite short based on OW price. {nm} diamondman56 Jul 15, 07:52

Bummer johnnyb588 Jul 15, 10:36

To get to the studios $40M, it's now gonna need almost 12x... TwoMisfits Jul 15, 08:09

Spy SCOPR did 19.3X so it's not impossible. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 08:40

Right, it's not impossible, but it's highly, highly unlikely... TwoMisfits Jul 15, 08:50

If we're counting on the female fanbase that came out for SCOPR, then 12X is likely. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 08:53

Not your typical female comedy. {nm} tradermark Jul 15, 09:07

Right, SCOPR wasn't your typical female comedy either. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 09:10

As noted below, the average comedy is 13X this year. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 08:56

Which, if it performs as average, puts in under the hoped for $50M at $44.2M TwoMisfits Jul 15, 09:00

But above the studio's $40M. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 09:02

I will say if it's within $2M of $40M, the weekend estimate will hit $40M no matter what... TwoMisfits Jul 15, 09:05

But isn't that SOP for studios? {nm} ~JPV~ Jul 15, 09:12

I think WOM will be less kind than the critics were. I don't think it will get the multiplier it needs. {nm} RamsFan2004 Jul 15, 08:24

below ID2 and that was panned as a massive failure, it's time to acknowledge GB16 is bombing. {nm} Fitch3k Jul 15, 08:57

i wish i could find my post expressing my disbelief this could out draw ID2 {nm} tradermark Jul 15, 09:02

ERC still believes in $50M ;) Antibody Jul 15, 09:12

It's crazy how a line in the sand has been drawn for 50m, Ghostbusters 3 should easily pull 85m and 200m domestic {nm} Fitch3k Jul 15, 09:16

GHST2 adjusted for inflation opened at $63.7M, so no. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 09:18

proof that gender has nothing to do with making an awful Ghostbusters movie {nm} slipping jimmy Jul 15, 10:08

the issue was never about gender and the quality of the film. it was about people hating on the film because of gender without even seeing Moviesnob Jul 15, 10:46

some people. others just thought the trailers were meh {nm} slipping jimmy Jul 15, 10:51

agree, thats why i said "a misguided vocal minority of folks". Again theres nothing unusual about not wanting to see a film or saying Moviesnob Jul 15, 10:57

Not sexist. Just don't like McCarthy, Jones and Feig... I'm a huge fan of JLaw, Sigourney, Jolie, Milia Jovovich. etc. Baron_Darcon Jul 15, 11:26

So no what? No the industry hasn't change at all in 27 years to become front loaded? Fitch3k Jul 15, 10:30

Should Jurassic World simply have been the inflation adjusted number of JP3? I'm astounded at how much bias you are showing, Fitch3k Jul 15, 10:32

Yet IDAY2 fell massively short based on the same nostalgia, so no it's not $85M is not an easy number you pulled out. There's no bias here. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 10:39

ID2 was a continuation of a story. I don't get that sense with this. {nm} tradermark Jul 15, 11:32

JW was also a continuation of the story, using Fitch3k's example. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 13:19

Cause capable and definite mean the same? You really are being obnoxious in a way I have never seen you post before... Fitch3k Jul 15, 12:13

You said it was easy. If it was easy then every film would be doing it. I called you on your poor assumption. {nm} Antibody Jul 15, 13:13

Here's the numbers showing you're wrong, using your comparison, GB2 inflation adj -250m, it had a 3.8 multiplier, is that still the norm? No Fitch3k Jul 15, 12:17

GHST2's adjusted for inflation delist multiplier is $184.8/63.7 = 2.9 pretty close to the current avg of 2.7, so you're wrong. Antibody Jul 15, 13:09

240m was the adjust final total after 16 weeks, 184m is the adjusted total after 4 weekends (from BOM) {nm} JDolphin Jul 15, 15:11





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.13 (+1.13)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 8.34 (-0.15)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.13 (+1.13)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 150000 77.70 (-0.50)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.13 (+1.13)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 4.37 (+1.09)          Sasquatch Sunset (SQTCH) 150000 6.25 (-0.64)          With Love (WOLOV) 150000 25.79 (+1.28)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.13 (+1.13)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 149999 19.46 (+0.51)          Maria (MARIA) 150000 13.15 (+0.71)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 13.48 (-1.52)          Playdate (PLYDT) 71050 16.13 (+1.13)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.13 (+1.13)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 28.65 (-1.64)          Playdate (PLYDT) 10000 16.13 (+1.13)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 49.73 (-4.84)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 7000 36.59 (-5.48)          1992 (42992) 2000 1.73 (-0.08)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 12000 28.65 (-1.64)          The Last Showgirl (TLSHG) 150000 4.73 (-0.02)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 999 28.65 (-1.64)          Oh, Canada (OCNDA) 150000 5.32 (-0.06)          The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 150000 34.41 (+0.08)          The Ballad of Wallis Island (TBOWI) 46000 5.40 (-0.41)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 19.03 (-2.09)          Civil War (CVLWR) 150000 61.77 (-0.25)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 974 19.46 (+0.51)          Challengers - Opening Weekend (CHALN.OW) 1500 11.55 (-0.59)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 52500 19.40 (-1.35)          The Monkey (MONKY) 25000 19.03 (-2.09)          The Monkey (MONKY) 75170 19.03 (-2.09)          They Follow aka It Follows 2 (TFLW2) 8505 15.86 (-0.08)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 72333 91.44 (+4.61)          Karate Kid (KKID2) 19000 102.13 (-0.49)          David Gordon Green (DGGRE) 25000 70.47 (-0.25)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 76319 135.12 (+1.25)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 112186 135.12 (+1.25)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 51861 93.74 (+0.42)          Josh O'Connor (JOOCO) 1000 7.75 (-0.05)          Playdate (PLYDT) 150000 16.13 (+1.13)          Playdate (PLYDT) 100 16.13 (+1.13)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.40 (-1.35)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.40 (-1.35)          The Smashing Machine (SMACH) 150000 19.40 (-1.35)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 36.59 (-5.48)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 149999 36.59 (-5.48)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 44000 17.23 (+1.48)          Honey Don't (HDONT) 2000 17.23 (+1.48)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.25 (+0.33)