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BO.com Weekend Forecast: JLEAG $125m, WONDE $17m, TLAMB $7.5m
RollingThunder
Nov 16, 12:35
So for comp, We would need around $14.8m in previews if JLEAG gets the same IM as THOR3
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tomcat90
Nov 16, 12:45
What about SUPE2 and SUICD?
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Antibody
Nov 16, 12:49
Well comp to those two would be a much higher number, given that they had much worse RT scores and still had much bigger OW's then $125m
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tomcat90
Nov 16, 12:52
JLEAG's RT score is closer to SUPE2/SUICD than THOR3, not to mention they share the same DCEU.
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Antibody
Nov 16, 12:56
Right, so if SUICD had 26% and opened $133.7m, and SUPE2 had 27% and opened $166m, the JLEAG at 40% would be low at $125m for that comp
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tomcat90
Nov 16, 13:02
That's why I used THOR3 despite the huge diff in RT score. More current comp and a huge OW seems less likely
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tomcat90
Nov 16, 13:03
Doesn't make sense that you pick a less comparable comp than two other more comparable comps.
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Antibody
Nov 16, 13:07
Well based on that argument, with a RT score of 40, the OW would be better than both SUICD and SUPE2. Highly unlikely wouldn't you say?
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tomcat90
Nov 16, 13:10
Huh? I'm just taking about using the IM from SUPE2 and SUICD rather than the crowd-pleasing THOR3.
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Antibody
Nov 16, 13:12
So you're saying JLEAG isn't crowd pleasing? I'm waiting to see the cinemascore.
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-JPV-
Nov 16, 13:22
Exactly. If JLEAG has the same Thursday to OW multiplier as SUICD, it will need previews of $19M+ to get an OW of $125M
RogerMore
Nov 16, 13:22
(and those are the better comparisons IMO)
RogerMore
Nov 16, 13:26
Curious what the 2nd week drop will be. Normally I'd expect 68% for this garbage but with Thanksgiving, maybe it gets a boost to 60% drop?
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doitdoitdoitnow
Nov 16, 12:50
higher than that I would assume. (next) Friday is going to be pretty big.
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lobogotti
Nov 16, 12:57
Very high 50s to low 60s most likely, but WOM may see a departure from historical trends. PLF screens will probably keep it around 60.
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RollingThunder
Nov 16, 12:58
That would only be for Fri-Sun, right? Wed-THU will kick it up even more.
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hankquinlan
Nov 16, 14:41
Last year FBSTS had a 40% drop. HGAM4 in 2015 and HGAM2 in 2013 were ~50% drops. None had especially great legs (though better than SUPE2
RogerMore
Nov 16, 13:07
man, I have a hard time seeing $125M at current pre-sales, especially with Thor still thriving and RT at 40%. Wonder is at 83% now with
lobogotti
Nov 16, 12:55
I'm now expecting WONDE to be just that, a welcome sleeper for the holiday season. Perhaps a mini Blind Side?
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RollingThunder
Nov 16, 12:59
if it can do half that buisness that would be awesome. I'm hoping for $60M by the end of next weekend.
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lobogotti
Nov 16, 13:00
Not much interest in discussing TLAMB but it won't surprise me to see it be a record low OW for Sony Pictures Animation. BO looks close.
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RollingThunder
Nov 16, 13:04
agreed
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lobogotti
Nov 16, 13:05
local theaters for tlamb
islndr
Nov 16, 16:09
btw, Thursday numbers here aren't huge by any means, but Friday/Saturday numbers are starting to look outstanding.
lobogotti
Nov 16, 13:02
Well if the most recent reports are accurate, we'll probably end up a bit high. More and more leaning toward that 110-ish range but we'l see
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ShawnMR
Nov 16, 17:41