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FWIW, of the other 18 MCU films, only 9 delisted at a multiple of 2.4 or greater (which you'd need to get to 600 from 250.) A further 2
delisted above a multiple of 2.352 which you'd need to see any price increase above 588 given a 250 opening.
So, if those movies are any barometer (and I grant that historical patterns aren't necesarily predictive of future results) you have 50% chance of getting to 600+, a 61.11% chance of seeing any upward price movement, and a 38.89% chance of downward price movement.
The average delist multiple for all 18 films is 2.384 which, given a 250 opening, would mean a delist of 596.
Additionally, delist multiples for TFA and LJ are 3.278 and 2.603 respectively.
AVNG3 still showing almost 9MM shares short @ H$588, hmm... I'm sure they'll enjoy covering above H$600 w/o the adjust. {nm} Apr 29, 19:14
Just remember, some of those are for inactive accounts. {nm} Apr 29, 19:40
Understood, but I've watched the short interest INCREASE from ~7MM to >9MM this weekend amidst all the broken records {nm} Apr 29, 19:49
It was at 12m earlier today {nm} Apr 29, 19:54
Right! 3MM shares covered today and it's STILL down -H$3.40. At least my related AVNG4 & CMARV longs are outperforming {nm} Apr 29, 20:07
FWIW, of the other 18 MCU films, only 9 delisted at a multiple of 2.4 or greater (which you'd need to get to 600 from 250.) A further 2 Apr 29, 20:03
but it's summer so the kids are out of school and . . . {nm} Apr 29, 20:13
The average of the last 5 MCU movies is 2.43 - which gives you 608m {nm} Apr 29, 20:36
The average of the prior two Avengers films is 2.296 which would give 574. I agree that it'll probably delist above 600, but Apr 29, 21:00
Sex Panther was #1 five weeks in a row. Affinity War won't even be #1 for more than 3 (Deadpool 2 and then Solo) {nm} Apr 30, 00:07
True but AVNG3 has no competition until DEAD2 so if fans are close to as enthused $$$. I'm seeing it 4 more times. {nm} Apr 30, 01:04
I think it is very likely that it will be $600M+ on the Thursday before Deadpool opens. It has a shot at $350M Apr 30, 04:26
I shouldn’t say very likely, but very possible {nm} Apr 30, 04:28
keep in mind though, the film will be closer to $260 now. Maybe higher. {nm} Apr 30, 04:19
If you have all the starbonds for AVNG3 at adjust you'll have 90.4 M in one movie! Some starbonds currently overvalued too. Apr 30, 00:01
1st, I'd like to thank you all for the enlightening and thoughtful analysis, presented in a civil & polite forum.. Apr 30, 08:45