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Two words: Confirmation Bias

Posted by: Catzan on Mar 14, 12:57 in response to VictorY's post Captain Marvel review update.. About what we expected....

On steroids...oops...that is too more words...so Four! Four words!

Captain Marvel review update.. About what we expected. Some numbers to share: VictorY Mar 14, 12:15

As has been pointed out numerous times, RT and IMDB scores are unreliable due to trolling. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:24

They're pretty close though. That's one heck of a coincidence. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:25

Also. "Ultron" is at 7.4 on IMDB.. And "Ultron" and "Captian Marvel" Rotten Tomatoes Critic scores are pretty close also. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:28

It's not a coincidence that trolls have openly targeted the RT and IMDB scores of CMARV. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:29

I don't remember any trolling on "Ultron," unless I'm wrong.. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:30

There wasn't. Ultron's RT audience is 83%. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:37

I'm aware of that. But Rotten also changed how they do audience scores now also. I don't think its fair to CM the comparison. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:41

The whole suggestion of trolling has been blown out of proportion. At what point are too many negative reviews designated as 'trolling'? {nm} RollingThunder Mar 14, 12:38

538 has covered the IMDB trolling and bias many times Antibody Mar 14, 12:43

when they differ from actual move goer polls that have a scientific margin of error. Polls have to represent the population they are Moviesnob Mar 14, 12:43

Will take a look at the articles. Know it's been a hot topic for awhile, I just don't know a single person who has trolling as a hobby. {nm} RollingThunder Mar 14, 12:49

thats the key - there aren't a lot, they just get amplified on the internet {nm} Moviesnob Mar 14, 12:52

They have been openly trolling on social media, including this message board. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:52

Most trolls don't personally advertise to their friends and family that they intentionally are jerks on the Internet. Doesn't impress many. {nm} BSmurf Mar 14, 12:53

You don't read these boards? {nm} RogerMore Mar 14, 12:54

I do, just not every article that's posted, at least right away. {nm} RollingThunder Mar 14, 12:58

What I mean is, there've been many many people on these boards over the years who have trolling as hobby. {nm} RogerMore Mar 14, 13:13

Mixed WOM? Ir's already made over 550 globally. Seems strong to me. tatoufan Mar 14, 12:40

336 would be cool. But... I don't know. "Games" had solid 30+ percent drops for months. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:42

What? HGAME dropped 61%. HGAM2 dropped 53%. HGAM3 dropped 53%. HGAM4 dropped 49%. Antibody Mar 14, 12:47

Weeks after the 2nd weekend.. Not the 2nd weekend drop (which I agree will be higher) {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:48

I'ts on track for a billion dollas gross...maybe it only makes 900M. That's fantastic! tatoufan Mar 14, 13:58

336 after 4 weeks would be amazing for an, (until a month ago) relatively unknown Marvel asset likely to blow past 400 domestically... tatoufan Mar 14, 13:03

literally everything he's posted on Captain Marvel has been made up {nm} Moviesnob Mar 14, 12:47

The data is right there on IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes.. Both audience and critic scores. I didn't make it up. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:50

its been explained to you. Those polls are not accurate as they don't reflect the population who watched the movies {nm} Moviesnob Mar 14, 12:51

So "Ultron" and "Marvel" have pretty close RT Critic scores (not accurate) pretty close audience ratings (Not accurate). That's your point? {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 12:53

We didn't say anything about RT critics score. CMARV's audience is -18% from critcs, while Ultron is +8%. Big difference. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 13:02

And "Marvel" also changed how they do audience scores on RT.. Hence why I'm looking more at the Critic scores put in with it.. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 13:05

What's the allowable deviation from critic consensus? Pepe_Nolan Mar 14, 13:35

no, I'll repeat:Those polls (whether critic or audience) aren't accurate reflections of the audience that saw the movie. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 14, 13:04

Fine. We just ignore all this data and just go off your preference. Which I'm sure has never been wrong. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 13:07

No, i'm using the polls that show me their margin of error {nm} Moviesnob Mar 14, 13:34

Whatever. Then why do we even have Rotten Tomatoes.. after what you said.. Both Audience and Critic ratings being useless and all. VictorY Mar 14, 13:38

The critic ranking isn't broken...the audience ranking is. The audience ranking once provided interesting info. Now, it doesn't. Critic Catzan Mar 14, 13:51

I never said the critic rating was useless. No one uses it as a representation of the movie going public. its a representation of what the Moviesnob Mar 14, 14:01

Take a look oon social media yourself. The vibe around CM is positive. {nm} tatoufan Mar 14, 14:16

This was pathetic weeks ago. Now I don't know what to call it. VictorY et al need to get a life. {nm} CSStrowbridge Mar 14, 13:05

Two words: Confirmation Bias Catzan Mar 14, 12:57

At this point, only BO numbers matter. CMARV's Mon-Tue-Wed is 22.3% of its Fri-Sat-Sun. Here's how that lines up against comparable movies RogerMore Mar 14, 13:41

Couldn't agree more. But "Hunger Games' was also released in March. I don't see March as a huge Summer month (where other Marvel films were) VictorY Mar 14, 13:45

Right how? A HGAME delist is higher than CMARV right now. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 13:49

We shall see. That's the fun of the game.. right? We'll see how it plays out. {nm} VictorY Mar 14, 13:52

The play-out is predictable. Right-wing malcontents continue to lose culture war, becoming even more disaffected SenJohnBlutarsky Mar 14, 15:20

Yeah, DrStr looks like the most comparable in holds. Should be good for over $400m domestic, probably more than Cap3 and IM3 {nm} MattW Mar 14, 17:23

Great call. I could see that happening. For now, I'm locked on the Hunger Game trajectory. {nm} VictorY Mar 15, 09:06





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