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antman {nm}

Posted by: gogreen (a.k.a cinebello) on Apr 09, 10:18 in response to tatoufan's post WM is a much darker world. I'm strugglinig to find a comp...

ERC: SHAZAM! scored $3M on Monday, which is nearly $900k less than WATCHMEN on its first weekday, $2M less than GREEN LANTERN. Domestic tota tatoufan Apr 09, 09:16

Domestic total is now $59.8M. {nm} tatoufan Apr 09, 09:16

One caveat to Green Lantern, that one opened in June, so no schools in session. {nm} ~JPV~ Apr 09, 09:18

Good point. Some schools are out for spring break at the moment, but not too many. BOM is using Ant-Man (also a Summer release)... tatoufan Apr 09, 09:33

Shazam skews a lot younger than Watchmen IMO - young protagonist, more humour, no "adult situations", no R-rating, etc RogerMore Apr 09, 09:40

WM is a much darker world. I'm strugglinig to find a comp for this one. {nm} tatoufan Apr 09, 10:16

antman gogreen Apr 09, 10:18

spiderverse is better. Shazam played more asian, but the rest of the audience numbers line up well Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:28

Spiderverse benefitted from 2 lucrative holiday weeks. {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 10:33

i'm just talking about the audience since it was brought up that it skews younger (hence the phrase "adjust for seasonality") {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:35

which is hard to do for a leggy holiday film. Easier to find comps that doesn't open late Dec. {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 10:41

i have faith that *almost* everyone here can figure it out {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:46

If it's that easy then telll us what % would you take off if ASPDR had opened in Spring? {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 10:49

41.45% {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 10:57

So ASPDR would have made 134*0.59= 79 / 35 for a delist multiplier of 2.25? {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 11:08

no, off its total gross.I also factor in market conditions (weather, competition) on top of seasonality and dont have time this second to Moviesnob Apr 09, 11:23

Then you're predicting a total of $170M for Shazam. Let's see if you're right. :) {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 11:50

no, we're lower - like i said, there are other factors in play that get measured (my guess is its largely Endgame). {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 12:27

If there's so many external factors, then it's not an easy comp that everyone can figure out. {nm} Antibody Apr 09, 13:35

I see the audience similarities, but I thought ASPDR was a much better film. I don't see SHAZM having the same kind of legs. {nm} tatoufan Apr 09, 11:19

exit polls were better for Spidey, but its not far off {nm} Moviesnob Apr 09, 11:32

I hear you. There's no perfect single comp - what I do is pick a bunch of similar movies, with a range of outcomes and then see which one it RogerMore Apr 09, 11:20





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Untitled M. Night Shyamalan (GDGRD) 150000 26.89 (-0.03)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 19.57 (-0.43)          Untitled M. Night Shyamalan (GDGRD) 150000 26.89 (-0.03)          Untitled M. Night Shyamalan (GDGRD) 150000 26.89 (-0.03)          Housekeeping for Beginners (HKFBG) 50000 0.84 (0.00)          A Different Man (ADIFM) 150000 2.29 (-0.01)          A Different Man (ADIFM) 150000 2.29 (-0.01)          The Strangers: Chapter 2 (STRN4) 150000 17.64 (+0.02)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 100000 20.11 (+0.11)          The Strangers: Chapter 2 (STRN4) 150000 17.64 (+0.02)          Robotech (RTECH) 150000 17.95 (+0.02)          Robotech (RTECH) 150000 17.95 (+0.02)          Cloverfield 2 (CLOV2) 150000 26.71 (+0.76)          With Love (WOLOV) 61095 21.78 (+0.66)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 150000 18.50 (+0.50)          Vicious (VICUS) 150000 19.56 (+0.58)          With Love (WOLOV) 150000 21.78 (+0.66)          With Love (WOLOV) 150000 21.78 (+0.66)          Peaches (PEACH) 150000 3.64 (+0.13)          Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey (WTPB2) 150000 2.45 (-0.02)          Thelma (THELM) 50000 3.95 (-0.08)          Thelma (THELM) 50000 3.95 (-0.08)          Thelma (THELM) 50000 3.95 (-0.08)          The Pinkerton (PNKRT) 150000 14.34 (-0.02)          Thelma (THELM) 50000 3.95 (-0.08)          Thelma (THELM) 50000 3.95 (-0.08)          Crying in H Mart (CRYHM) 150000 10.30 (+0.02)          Thelma (THELM) 50000 3.95 (-0.08)          Faces of Death (FACOD) 150000 15.56 (+0.02)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 50000 16.59 (-0.14)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 50000 16.59 (-0.14)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 50000 16.59 (-0.14)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 50000 16.59 (-0.14)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 50000 16.59 (-0.14)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 50000 16.59 (-0.14)          Driving Madeleine (DRVMD) 197 0.57 (0.00)          Kung Fu Panda 4 (PAND4) 95 144.73 (0.00)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (GHST5) 50762 115.86 (-0.66)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (GHST5) 99238 115.86 (-0.66)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (GHST5) 150000 115.86 (-0.66)          On Swift Horses (OSWFH) 149998 5.08 (+0.44)          On Swift Horses (OSWFH) 150000 5.08 (+0.44)          On Swift Horses (OSWFH) 150000 5.08 (+0.44)          A Different Man (ADIFM) 1 2.29 (-0.01)          A Different Man (ADIFM) 150000 2.29 (-0.01)          Breathe (BRETE) 3 4.40 (+0.29)          Force of Nature: The Dry 2 (FNTUR) 1 0.53 (-0.02)          Force of Nature: The Dry 2 (FNTUR) 150000 0.53 (-0.02)          Breathe (BRETE) 3 4.40 (+0.29)          Breathe (BRETE) 3 4.40 (+0.29)